Silver Bets The Scar

[bigtree]

National Journal ?@nationaljournal

NYT's Nate Silver bets Scarborough on Obama win.

Nate Silver, of The New York Times, has taken some heat recently for his election predictions that show President Obama as the clear favorite in next week’s election. Now he’s telling one of his critics to put his money where his mouth is.

On MSNBC's Morning Joe on Tuesday, host Joe Scarborough criticized Silver’s prediction, which now states Obama has a 79 percent chance of winning the election, higher than it sat earlier this week.

"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win?” Scarborough said. “Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance—they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing.”

Silver, apparently spurred by this criticism and others, made this wager to Scarborough on Twitter on Thursday: “If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?”


read: http://njour.nl/TbfGvh

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight
@JoeNBC: If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?



update:

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight
@JoeNBC: Better idea: Let's bet $2,000./ MT @fivethirtyeight Why don't we both agree to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross right now?

[Angry Dragon]

1. Murderer Joe won't pay

[bigtree]

2. but, he will lose

[Angry Dragon]

4. yes

[Terra Alta]

3. C'mon Joe. Put your money where your mouth is.

If you have enough faith in your candidate, then take the bet.

[FailureToCommunicate]

5. Let's help Nate WIN that bet!

Get-Out-The-Vote!

(I certain 99% of DUers are, but if you are uncertain where to help: http://www.barackobama.com/ )


Nate Rocks!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[amuse bouche]

7. Is this the first time

Nate has had the Prez over 300 EV's?

[GOTV]

17. No, you can look at the graph and see it was considerably higher at one point

[FailureToCommunicate]

20. Nate Silver showed Obama with 338+ one month ago. And a 98% chance of victory...

What happened next - after the first "debate" - is a matter that has taken much ink (or electrons) to tease apart.

[Hamlette]

23. that was only in the "nowcast"

the forecast has only had him at roughly 320 EVs and a 86% chance of winning

[amuse bouche]

25. Ugh

Only a month ago. It seems like a year since the first debate. Good thing the Prez is the comeback kid

[mucifer]

6. They both should just donate the money. This is stupid!

[VWolf]

11. I agree, plus

I'm not comfortable with wagering over an election. Gives me the willies.

[bigtree]

26. new tweet: 'Why don't we both agree to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross right now?'

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight 1h

@JoeNBC: Better idea: Let's bet $2,000./ MT @fivethirtyeight Why don't we both agree to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross right now?

[winstars]

8. Joey Scar is absent today from Mourning Schmoe, its almost watchable...

Yeah, its not like its a big news day or anything...

Nate said on Charlie Rose: "They assume everyone is tainted by the same disease they have" when asked about Scar!!!

Nice one Nate...

[nolabear]

9. Nate just helped Joe to a big serving of STFU.

And I don't blame him. Arrogance in general seems to be getting on some last nerves in this election.

[hootinholler]

18. Served steaming hot

[amuse bouche]

24. Scarborough tweeted

to Nate, Let's both donate anyway. The people need the help

Such a weasel

[Bohunk68]

10. How about changing the title to:

Silver bets Dead Intern Joe Scum. Honor and Remember Lori Klausutis!!!

[onecent]

12. I LOVE how confident Nate Silver is. I think it's a lovely bet! n/t

[tavernier]

13. Hubby (on seeing the photo) asked

Is his elevator out, too?

[WCGreen]

14. Joey is so stupid...

What Nate is saying is there is a 79% chance that Obama will WIN!!!...

Joey thinks, obviously from his comment, that he thinks Nate is saying he will ge 79% of the votes...

God, and he wants to be president? He doesn't even understand the odds or percentages.

[H2O Man]

15. Rec # 42

Very good.

[carolinayellowdog]

16. Arrogant ignorant Joe

Obviously he hasn't a clue about probability and neither do his informants. Seems not to understand the difference between likelihood of victory and likely margin of victory. Yet presumes to diss publicly a man who has a million times his knowledge and understanding.

[vlyons]

19. Not to mention, Silver's record of predicting outcomes

of elections. Pretty impressive, I'd say. Plus, Nate Silver doesn't bang on the table and yell.

[irisblue]

21. tech geek knows tech &statistics& politics. JS not so much

silver FTW

[JH19059]

22. I did this the other day.

Co worker was rambling how Obama was going to lose, but when I challenged him to a bet and how much he wanted to donate to my bathroom remodel he completely shut down. Stated he didn't bet but he played the lottery once a week and gambled monthly on the river boat casino. They know Romney has NO chance in hell, 90% of them are voting for him out of pure hatred for Obama which for the most part is based on race and NOT politics.

[cbdo2007]

27. As a fellow analyst, we have a saying - Trust The Data

Data doesn't spin or lie. Any good analyst can easily see that Silver is correct here but also Scarborough is correct when he says, "“Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance—they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing.” because this is how campaigns work and all competitions should work. Even if you know you're going to win, you act like you still have to fight every day like it's close or you start getting lazy and lose your motivation to work harder.