Krugman: National Review's attack on Nate Silver illustrates the right's attack on science

[pampango]

Brad DeLong points me to this National Review attack on Nate Silver, which I think of as illustrating an important aspect of what’s really happening in America.

For those new to this, Nate is a sports statistician turned political statistician, who has been maintaining a model that takes lots and lots of polling data — most of it at the state level, which is where the presidency gets decided — and converts it into election odds. Like others doing similar exercises — Drew Linzer, Sam Wang, and Pollster — Nate’s model continued to show an Obama edge even after Denver, and has shown that edge widening over the past couple of weeks.

Never mind the fact that Nate tells us all exactly how he does it, and that he hasn’t changed the formula at all. This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.

This is really scary. It means that if these people triumph, science — or any kind of scholarship — will become impossible. Everything must pass a political test; if it isn’t what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign. ... And the fact that the National Review ran with this tells you all you need to know about the publication.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/the-war-on-objectivity/

Once again if the right does not like the result of polling or climate science or government statistics or anything else, they just deny that they are 'facts' or 'science' and ignore them in favor of whatever supports their policy preferences.

"We don't need no stinking fact checkers in our campaign."

[brooklynite]

1. Well, when you get right down to it...

...a mathematical "theorem" is really just a fancypants way of saying "theory", isn't it?

[godai]

3. Actually,no...

In mathematics, a theorem is a statement that has been proven on the basis of previously established statements, such as other theorems, and previously accepted statements, such as axioms.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theorem

[Bandit]

5. Isn't that Exactly what a Scientific Theory is?

A Scientific Theory is Fact based upon trial of Hypothesis after hypothesis and will ALWAYS be considered FACT until Proven otherwise.. Exactly the same as any theorem.

[godai]

7. Not 'exactly the same'

http://www.funtrivia.com/askft/Question53319.html

Hypothesis:- A tentative explanation for an observation that can be tested by further investigation.

Theory:- A statement or principle devised to explain a group of facts especially one that has been repeatedly tested.

Law:- A statement describing a relationship observed to be invariable between or among phenomena for all cases in which the specified conditions are met: eg- the law of gravity.

Theorem:- (In this sense) A mathematical proposition that has been or is to be proved on the basis of explicit assumptions.

[mathematic]

10. Theorems and theories are completely opposite

Math theorems are true because, logically, they cannot be not true. There is no way for them to be false. There is no "proven otherwise".

Scientific theories are true based on evidence. They are not true in the mathematical sense and they have not been proven in the mathematical sense. They are true because they are consistent with (and perhaps predict) a large amount of observations about the universe.

I think the general population's inability to distinguish between scientific facts, mathematical facts, and other types of facts together with the the corresponding inability to correctly determine appropriate standards of proof for those facts is an enduring problem.

[Bandit]

12. Have you ever heard of Quantum Physics?

Quantum Physics does a lot to disprove mathmatical theorems.. How can a particle be in two places at the same time. No mathmatical theorem can explain it or predict it.. Scientific Theories are FACT.....Scientists use those theories as FACT every single day.. They will always be every bit as much FACT as any Mathmatical Theorem unless somehow they are disproved and that would take every bit as much doing as disproving a mathmatical theorem..

[melody]

4. < scientific sarcastic humor>A theory is an idea ... a theorem is a fact n/t</ scientific humor>

It's a joke, son.

[Bandit]

6. Scientific Theory is not an "idea", it is FACT...

It has been proved to be fact after numerous examinations of hypothesis after hypothesis and will remain FACT until proved otherwise..

[melody]

8. There really needs to be a sarcasm font

Allow me to add an icon ...

[ProfessorGAC]

9. Per Bill Maher, Heat Melting Ice Is "Just A Theory"

That even broke up the conservabot, Mike Steele, on the show.
GAC

[upi402]

14. Like 'gravitation'

Just a scientific theory.
Theory - a good guess.
Scientific Theory - a set of facts that tells a story.

But if folks see a simple line repeated on the TV enough... it's a fact to them.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

2. NR writer is overmatched

I almost stopped reading after the childish Homer Simpson which disqualifies the writer from being taken seriously. The overarching gist of the NR piece was Silver is a partisan hack and because we don't like what he says we will mock his methods.

[Nay]

11. "...if these people triumph, science — or any kind of scholarship — will become impossible." Yes,

it will, and we will be back to the dark ages with a clone of the Roman Catholic Church deciding what's true and false, based on the ideology that the church higher-ups (99.9% men, by the way) develop to lord it over the masses.

[maxsolomon]

13. I assume that after the election, when Silver is vindicated

that the NR will apologize?

[Jim Lane]

16. Yes, NR will apologize, but no one will notice it. We'll all be looking at the flying pigs. (n/t)

[tblue37]

15. They call Obama a communist, but their insistence that objective

reality be distorted to reflect ideology is precisely what communist dictatorships were infamous for doing!