Times like this are when intelligence data is really important and moving fast.
We get to make rash statements because we're not in charge.
The fact that you personally are thinking more in terms of what's the responsible course of action for a long-term stabilizing resolution of this crisis just means that you're full of that Democratic Party bias in favor of finding actual workable solutions to problems.
If you were more inclined to vent your frustration through reckless calls for violence without regard for long-term consequences, you'd be a Republican. Or a troll.
They should be good at cleaning the treads.
Clear that it can, Putin's war crimes will continue indefinitely. Unless the west intervenes.
are you ready for World War III? Nuclear war, with mutually assured destruction?
Russia is launching all sorts of sorties, artillery barrages, and bombing runs all around Ukraine. How did you miss that in the news?
Putin's former aides and members of his intelligence community say they've never seen him like this before, that his mind is in a place it's never been before.
I'll trust their assessments over your ESP right now, if you don't mind.
Putin is backed into a corner, and if you've ever heard him tell the story of his childhood episode with a cornered rat, you'd know what I mean. His mind is in a place sane people don't go, and his actions of late bear that out.
If not, then you are just as clueless as the rest of us on what he will do.
He's a megalomaniac. By far the greatest threat to start a nuclear war than any other Russian leader since WW2. Khrushchev was at least rational, when confronted during the Cuban Missile Crisis he backed down.
In these times, live every day as if it is your last. Once those nukes start flying our world will change forever.
I shared an article discussing this possibility, in the context, I believe, of airing it out "in advance" to help prevent it from happening. My post adds info on "pre-bunking" as contrasted with de-bunking.
PS: I trust that President Biden has the best intelligence, advice and judgment. I won't second guess.
Russia Really Could Use A Nuclear Weapon In The Ukraine Conflict - The DEFCON Warning System
The Russian President vastly misread the room.
And now Russia is stuck. It has three options:
1. Push for a quick resolution.
2. Get stuck in a quagmire.
3. Withdraw in humiliation.
A quick resolution can take two forms. It can be Ukraines surrender or a negotiation.
A negotiated settlement could happen, but for now the terms are not something Ukraine is willing to swallow. Maybe after a few more cities are taken, that might change.
Russia doesnt want to get stuck in Ukraine for long. Especially now that it virtually has no economy. Wars cost money and a citizenry who didnt want the war in the first place is unlikely to tolerate economic hardship.
And if anyone thinks Russia is going to withdraw and face a humiliating defeat at the hands of Ukraine well, bridge/sale/you get the idea.
Russia wants a quick end to the war. End the Russian losses and end the economic devastation. If Ukraine is unwilling to give them a quick end, what is Russia to do?
And now here is where the calculus gets dangerous.
Already we see Russia attempting to wear down Ukraine by attacking civilians. They are using illegal weapons and targeting illegal targets. Russia is already accused of war crimes.
Inside Russia, the Russian President is facing a military who didnt want the war and an inner circle that is beginning to think maybe the President needs to be delt with, Russian style. After all, a head on a pike would certainly end the war and allow Russia to withdraw with some honour, putting all the blame for the war on the dead guy.
So here is what Russia is facing. And time is running out. Some calculations say Russia can hold out until June. Three months? Can their economy last that long? Ukraine doesnt need to win. They just need to hold out until Russia collapses.
This brings us to the dangerous option Russia has. A way to possibly end the war quickly.
A nuclear attack, a demonstration bomb over the sea or over Ukraine.
From Russias point of view, they could see such an event propelling Ukraine to surrender. Additionally, Russia may think that NATO, fearing what Russia is capable of, would refrain from responding. After all, it wasnt NATO that was attacked, and any response would certainly invite Russia to counterattack on their home soil.
Would Russia risk it? Its unthinkable. But is it impossible?
The DEFCON Warning System believes that this is an option that is on the table. Russia has many options. This is one of them. Doesnt mean theyll do it. In fact, lets go so far as to say they wont do it. But it is something that is considered.
We may be in WW3 no matter what we do in Ukraine. So might as well send in all the weapons and planes that they want, it will not change the outcome. Russia wants to draw NATO into the conflict whether now, or later when they drive on into the Baltics.
Absolutely Russia/Putin could deploy a nuke somewhere as a demo. That was my theory long before I read this. Unlikely they would use a nuke against NATO. It's not impossible but they know it will trigger a like response. Effectively dooming the Russian empire, maybe all of us, who knows?
Personally I'd rather turn it all in a smoking heap of radioactive rubble than live under the boot of a dictator like Putin. Without freedom what's the point?
The solution isn't so easy though, but of course it's easy for people to just be snarky back to you.
We should find a way to ratchet up political and economic pressure even more.
Rather than reinforce their fever dreams of a Soviet era polarity.
Last edited Sat Mar 19, 2022, 09:53 AM - Edit history (1)
Neither Biden nor NATO is willing to go to WAR with Russia. Leastways, not at the present moment. What we'd like to see take place is an emotional response that simply cannot take place and all the reasons for not doing it have been explained many times.
If NATO can ever get the needed weaponry to the Ukraine military, they will win the war. The situation will likely get worse before it gets better but a NATO intervention could also make bad matters worse.