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cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 03:17 AM Oct 2012

Why the concern about Sandy?

Hurricane Sandy is only a Category 1 storm. Barely more wind than a tropical storm.

So why the great concern?

Even though the wind isn't so fast, Sandy is very large with tropical storm winds extending 300-400 miles from the center and the barometric pressure is unusually low over a unusually large area. And Sandy is slow moving. And Atlantic water temperatures at at a record for this time of year.

Taken altogether, forecasters expect something possibly equaling the worst storm surge ever on New Jersey and Long Island and quite possibly topping New York's sea walls, which means potential for big flooding in NYC including flooding the subway.

The current forecasts are like a tour of America's most densely populated east-west corridor—Baltimore, Washington DC, Wilmington, Atlantic City (God's judgment of Donald Trump?), New York, Trenton, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Cleveland.

A big water event. And since it will be colliding with an incoming Canadian cold front, there could be a snow-icaine on the west edge, particularly at higher elevations. The northern Appalachians could get some seriously weird, dangerous weather.

This article is pretty informative:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/Discoveries/2012/1026/Hurricane-Sandy-liveblog-Which-way-is-Sandy-headed-The-latest-Frankenstorm-track-video

A nice collection of tracking forecast animations:

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/wrf.html

26 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why the concern about Sandy? (Original Post) cthulu2016 Oct 2012 OP
K&R DeSwiss Oct 2012 #1
Just look where they put Staten Island on Map #2. MattSh Oct 2012 #11
It's meant to be a "perfect storm" because it will meet up with low pressure from the north SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #2
I was there too. freedom fighter jh Oct 2012 #10
I remember the subway shutdown, and especially what happened next.... Jim Lane Oct 2012 #18
Oh, that is inspiring. freedom fighter jh Oct 2012 #20
Any word if it's going to hit enough cold air defacto7 Oct 2012 #3
Already here in southeastern North Carolina we had the weird light from strange weather at dusk. Hissyspit Oct 2012 #4
Storm Suzzyq Oct 2012 #6
Frankinstorm Suzzyq Oct 2012 #5
Take care everyone over there. Just raining and howling a little bit here, typical. freshwest Oct 2012 #7
Time to double down on the littlemissmartypants Oct 2012 #8
We have wind gusts in Tampa and its not glowing Oct 2012 #9
I was just watching the news davidpdx Oct 2012 #12
Schoharie County, NY checking in. Bohunk68 Oct 2012 #13
and I just saw on Facebook maryellen99 Oct 2012 #14
NOAA's National Hurricane Center isn't advising evacuation of any area, AFAICS. intheflow Oct 2012 #15
No need to evacuate high ground. NutmegYankee Oct 2012 #16
Best non-panicked explanation I've heard. intheflow Oct 2012 #21
I'm not panicking, but I am making plans Marrah_G Oct 2012 #22
It baffles me for homeowners with wells to be with out a generator after Irene in 2011 in CT former-republican Oct 2012 #23
They are expensive, and some folks have tight budgets. NutmegYankee Oct 2012 #26
History forgotten, 1938 Baclava Oct 2012 #17
Because my house might be flooded?? WinkyDink Oct 2012 #19
I live at the foot of a Mt and have a small pond out back near the house with a stream feeding it. Auntie Bush Oct 2012 #25
Everyone stay safe. Blue_In_AK Oct 2012 #24

SleeplessinSoCal

(8,992 posts)
2. It's meant to be a "perfect storm" because it will meet up with low pressure from the north
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 03:29 AM
Oct 2012

Or as the media circus says:

"A frightening collision of weather systems is brewing and could create a tempest even worse than 1991's "Perfect Storm." This "Frankenstorm," as some are calling it, is set to strike the Northeast on or near the 21st anniversary of that historic squall."

I was in NYC for the '91 Nor'easter. I recall scuba divers swimming from car to car on FDR Drive.

freedom fighter jh

(1,782 posts)
10. I was there too.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 06:02 AM
Oct 2012

At one point that afternoon, all the many train systems that serve the City were shut down due to station flooding. That included the subway system as well as the trains that pass through: Amtrak, the Long Island Railroad, New Jersey Transit, and PATH.

There was a house on the shore that collapsed all in a few seconds, under the influence of one enormous wave. Someone caught the collapse on camera and the news shows played it over and over endlessly.

 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
18. I remember the subway shutdown, and especially what happened next....
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:36 AM
Oct 2012

People with cars were stopping to fill them up with complete strangers who'd been stranded by the subway shutdown and were going in the same direction. It was inspiring.

A messenger from my law firm needed to get from midtown to downtown to file something in court, and that was how he made it.

freedom fighter jh

(1,782 posts)
20. Oh, that is inspiring.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:48 AM
Oct 2012

At my job (fed bldg, maybe half a mile north of Wall Street) we were released early so we could get home. I could not imagine how starting early was going to help, with no transportation. So I stayed and worked for a couple of hours. Finally I resolved to walk the 7 miles home. It was still raining, but not very hard, and the walking was not too bad. After about 2 miles I checked out my subway line and it was running just like normal. I was the only wet person on the train.

In Manhattan, where I was, the rain was disorienting if not devastating. In the rain and wind and confusion my husband was bitten by a dog on the sidewalk. Dog and owner then disappeared into the mist. (or so I imagine it. I was not there.)

defacto7

(13,485 posts)
3. Any word if it's going to hit enough cold air
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 03:29 AM
Oct 2012

to cause freezing in the northern states? That could be very difficult.

We just had a very fast drop in temps here in the west. We have had snow and freezing rain for 2 days with temps in the low 30's (Utah) 17" of snow in the north of the state. That air is headed to the vicinity of that storm.

Hissyspit

(45,788 posts)
4. Already here in southeastern North Carolina we had the weird light from strange weather at dusk.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 04:35 AM
Oct 2012

Everything was orangish, which I recognize from past unusual storms. And it's been misting (tropical rain) a little bit already.

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
7. Take care everyone over there. Just raining and howling a little bit here, typical.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 05:04 AM
Oct 2012

The way this thing is being described, some of you may lose power out there. Stay warm and dry!

 

glowing

(12,233 posts)
9. We have wind gusts in Tampa and its not
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 05:55 AM
Oct 2012

Near us at all. The pressure change has given me and a few others a massive headache. Good luck y'all

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
12. I was just watching the news
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 07:29 AM
Oct 2012

The guy at NOAA said the storm is going to go up the coast and then shoot out and back inland. When it shoots off the coast it could pick up strength out at sea. That combined with the cold air coming in from the west is suppose to make it dangerous.

Fortunately places that will be effect are taking the storm seriously. They said that power companies are moving linemen from other states into the area before the storm to have them on standby.

We need to cross our fingers that this thing fizzles out.

Bohunk68

(1,364 posts)
13. Schoharie County, NY checking in.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 07:43 AM
Oct 2012

We were hard hit last year from both Irene and Lee, still a long way from normal. We are on tenterhooks here. Had to fight with NYC to lower the water level behind the Gilboa Dam, but they finally started doing it last night. Because it wasn't done last year, it was a major cause of the flooding, the water had no place to be impounded and went over the dam. I saw it at 12' over the top of the dam. The dam, because of erosion is 10' below where it should be. The NYC people want their damn drinking water and brag about how pure it is, but they don't want to put money into maintaining the dam that impounds that drinking water. Our people paid for that negligence. Hugely.

maryellen99

(3,781 posts)
14. and I just saw on Facebook
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 08:12 AM
Oct 2012

That my cousin flew into NYC last night. Great...wonder if she even knows about the storm. It's going to be a nightmare for her to get back home.

intheflow

(28,402 posts)
15. NOAA's National Hurricane Center isn't advising evacuation of any area, AFAICS.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 09:12 AM
Oct 2012

They always do that when they expect a storm to be life-threatening. they do say there might be flooding along the coastline around New Jersey and of some inland tributaries, but it doesn't sound like the flooding from Irene last year. They're not even including advise to stock up on supplies. I think most of the panic is media-induced.

Edited to add NOAA link: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

NutmegYankee

(16,177 posts)
16. No need to evacuate high ground.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 09:26 AM
Oct 2012

Most of my area is just bracing for a loss of power. I see lots of people stocking up on water, but considering that most of the rural areas like mine are on wells, that's pretty smart. Without power for the well, you have no water at all for days. Try flushing the toilet, woops - washing hands, nope - dishes, nah.

Marrah_G

(28,581 posts)
22. I'm not panicking, but I am making plans
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 11:34 PM
Oct 2012

I live on the north shore of Boston, So I am making sure I have non perishables, batteries, water, and ice for the fridge/freezer. Last year I was without power for almost a week and was not living two blocks from the harbor like I am now. My biggest concern is flooding so we have a bug out plan in case the street floods and we need to get out cars out of harms way. I am on the second floor so not to worried about my stuff unless a tree comes down on the house.

Panic is silly, having a plan is smart.

Highly suggest people charge up phones and tablets, etc before the storm and then make sure to have a car charger avaiable to recharge them if you end up without power for a while. Just being able to check the news and such is a huge stress reliever if you end up in the dark.

Hurricanes are not always the most damaging up here. Noreasters can be very destructive. When you have a combination it can be scary like "the perfect storm"

 

former-republican

(2,163 posts)
23. It baffles me for homeowners with wells to be with out a generator after Irene in 2011 in CT
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 11:53 PM
Oct 2012

I talked to some today.

They were upset about losing power for 4 to 8 days last year but still never purchased a generator.

NutmegYankee

(16,177 posts)
26. They are expensive, and some folks have tight budgets.
Sun Oct 28, 2012, 03:41 AM
Oct 2012

I had mine delivered last Nov, after I also lost power in the Snow storm in Oct.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
17. History forgotten, 1938
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:35 AM
Oct 2012

History forgotten

Late in the summer of 1938, a wave of energy moved off the coast of Africa. Winds were sucked into the atmospheric depression and curved by the Earth's spin into a counterclockwise rotation.

The storm churned unnoticed across the open sea, gathering strength from warm tropical waters. On Friday, Sept. 16, a Brazilian freighter reported the storm.

Gordon Dunn and Grady Norton, U.S. Weather Bureau forecasters in Florida, issued a hurricane warning for Miami, expecting the storm to hit Tuesday. Miami residents stockpiled supplies, boarded windows, secured boats.



But on Monday evening, the storm turned north and sped up to 20 mph, a swift forward speed that scientists of the time knew little about. It followed a typical path of recurvature -- resembling a giant C -- around the Bermuda High, an area of high atmospheric pressure in the mid-Atlantic that pushes air outward from its center, bouncing hurricanes off its edges like bubbles.

The Bermuda High had moved to 44 degrees North latitude -- from its normal September position of thirty to thirty-five degrees -- blocking the hurricane's path and deflecting it northward. Abnormally warm water fed the storm as its forward speed increased to 60 mph! Waves tore up boardwalks in New Jersey.

No warnings were issued. It had been 117 years since the last great storm hit New York, on Sept. 23, 1821. History had been forgotten.


The 'fog bank'

By Wednesday afternoon, shingles were flying from roofs on Long Island. The sky grew dark. Trees were uprooted and telephone poles snapped like matchsticks. Three hours before high tide, residents reported a thick bank of gray fog, twenty-five to forty feet above the water, rolling in toward the south-facing coast.

Some residents fled to relative safety across the bridge. Many did not. Most of them died as the "fog bank" turned out to be a wall of water known as a storm surge.


Drowned at work

The storm marched north. In Rhode Island, residents joked about putting up storm shutters. Finally, at least a warning had been issued. But the ferocity of the hurricane was no match for any last-minute preparations that might have been made.

At the head of Narragansett Bay, 30 miles from the Atlantic, the city of Providence awaited a fate its inhabitants could not have imagined. As the hurricane barreled toward the city, it pushed a surge of water up the bay. As the channel narrowed and became more shallow, the storm surge had nowhere to go but up.

The mountain of water carried boats and houses into the capital, flooding the first floor of buildings in downtown, where workers were just preparing to go home. Having no idea what a storm surge was, many of them were trapped and drowned where they worked. The surge of water caused tides (and even non-tidal sections of rivers) to rise 30 feet and more above normal levels.

http://www.livescience.com/3820-history-reveals-hurricane-threat-york-city.html

Auntie Bush

(17,528 posts)
25. I live at the foot of a Mt and have a small pond out back near the house with a stream feeding it.
Sun Oct 28, 2012, 12:08 AM
Oct 2012

I worry about flooding with all the rain and no flood insurance. I also have HUGE maple trees close to the house all both sides of the house. I really worry about them. An old one went down during Irene but luckily fell parallel to the house...some outer limbs hit the house but did little damage. If it had fallen a little to the left it would have taken out a wing of the house. There are a couple of trees that could take out the main house.

Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)
24. Everyone stay safe.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 11:55 PM
Oct 2012

We had some freaky wind and water storms here, too, earlier this fall. They can be really quite terrifying.

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