Maybe the October Surprise already landed & nobody is noticing…

[Jackpine Radical]

But then, nobody HAS to notice for it to work its magic in lifting the mood of the country.

Gas prices are dropping rapidly as the news carries stories of the US poised to become the world's largest producer again. Prices are expected to continue their decline through the election.



This plus, of course the improvements in the economy & consumer confidence overall, are worth at least 3-5 points on Nov 6.


And I think back to all my speculation that the oil industry would arbitrarily raise prices this month in order to damage Obama.

[hrmjustin]

1. Interesting thought! I hope they continue to slide to below $3 a gallon.

[JaneyVee]

2. I read an article stating that gas could be under $3/gallon in some places by mid-November

[PD Turk]

19. It already is

$2.97 Tulsa, OK

[ChoppinBroccoli]

3. I Paid $3.09 Today In Columbus, Ohio

The prices have been steadily declining for several weeks. You can bet that as they continue to drop, Republicans will all do an about-face and start informing us about how the President has no control over gas prices.

[AndyTiedye]

5. It's Half Again That in California

It has just started to drop in California within the past week, only down about a dime to around $4.50

[safeinOhio]

9. $2.95 in Toledo.

[a la izquierda]

17. We're at 3.06 out here in the boonies of Licking County

Howdy, neighbor!

[Ruby the Liberal]

4. $4.29 in N Jersey this morning.

Transaction tax time and lock down speculators with no direct interest in commodities...

[AndyTiedye]

6. Almost as Expensive in NJ as CA. How Did That Happen?

New Jersey used to be the only blue state with cheap gas. What happened?

[Ruby the Liberal]

8. I would love to know.

I was pissed - I thought it was going to be closer to $3.50 this morning.

Edit - filled up in Morristown.

[kentauros]

14. Probably some gouger anticipating the hurricane.

Gouging on gasoline, ice, water, and other essentials before and after a storm is against the law down here. I would hope y'all have similar laws and that they will be enforced.

[Ruby the Liberal]

18. No clue - and that is an excellent point.

We don't get storms like this one very often.

[Indpndnt]

7. $3.39/gal. for regular in Central Texas today.

[longship]

10. Or maybe "October Surprise" is a silly meme.

The October Surprise happens every presidential election, except when it doesn't. Of course, there's only been really one, in 1980. But it doesn't stop people from flapping their gums about October surprises every damned four years.

And anything that jiggles the election dynamic this month will automagically morph into an October surprise. That is called confirmation bias. You remember the hits, and you ignore the misses.

It's time to kill the October surprise meme. It's deader than a Tyson chicken. (Or, if you're from Arkansas, a Perdue chicken.)

[Jackpine Radical]

15. Actually, there was no 1980 "October Surprise."

Poppy & Co. made sure of that by dealing with the Ayatollah to ensure that it would not happen (the "October Surprise" they feared being the release of the Iranian hostages, and the deal being the weapons-for-cash deal that later became known as Iran-Contra).

And, I assure you, I'm fully familiar with the different varieties of confirmation bias. It's kind of irrelevant here because "October Surprise" has not been operationally defined, so it's just a loose term that anyone can apply to anything as long as it has something to do with October. You'll never catch up with it & kill it.

[longship]

16. Well, you said it better than I did.

Thanks.

[Blue_In_AK]

11. Still $4.14 here

[sarcasmo]

12. Why isn't Faux news blaming Obama?

[pointsoflight]

13. Jobs numbers could be important

They come out the friday before election day. It'd be good if the unemployment rate at least holds at 7.8%. And if it were to go down more, that'd obviously be frosting on the cake.