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Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:27 AM

 

What is your actual Covid risk (Great UK tool)


My numbers for slightly overweight middle aged vaccinated Absolute risk

Risk of catching and being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 0.0092% 1 in 10,870

Risk of catching and dying from COVID-19 0.0013% 1 in 76,923

Risk of dying from COVID-19 following a positive test result 0.0479% 1 in 2,088


Here is the calculator provided by the Times.

https://qcovid.org/

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Arrow 25 replies Author Time Post
Reply What is your actual Covid risk (Great UK tool) (Original post)
cinematicdiversions Jan 2022 OP
Post removed Jan 2022 #1
marybourg Jan 2022 #2
Iwasthere Jan 2022 #4
marybourg Jan 2022 #9
Scrivener7 Jan 2022 #12
Orrex Jan 2022 #16
Scrivener7 Jan 2022 #3
underpants Jan 2022 #10
Scrivener7 Jan 2022 #11
underpants Jan 2022 #13
Scrivener7 Jan 2022 #25
Otto_Harper Jan 2022 #5
underpants Jan 2022 #7
wryter2000 Jan 2022 #23
róisín_dubh Jan 2022 #24
underpants Jan 2022 #6
Kaleva Jan 2022 #8
Nevilledog Jan 2022 #14
Celerity Jan 2022 #17
underpants Jan 2022 #19
Celerity Jan 2022 #20
underpants Jan 2022 #22
progree Jan 2022 #15
Tomconroy Jan 2022 #18
SoonerPride Jan 2022 #21

Response to cinematicdiversions (Original post)


Response to Post removed (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:43 AM

2. When will you consider yourself one of the elderly who should get vaxxed?

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Response to marybourg (Reply #2)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:48 AM

4. Soon this virus will become endemic

When it is considered endemic it will then be treated just like the flu. I haven't had a flu shot in over 30 years. Never am I sick. Does that answer your question?

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Response to Iwasthere (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:53 AM

9. No.

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Response to Iwasthere (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:57 AM

12. Not if people like yourself keep it thriving and making new variants, it won't.

Your crystal ball is not a substitute for science.

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Response to Iwasthere (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 12:12 PM

16. Well, let us know where we should send flowers

You seem unable to distinguish between "sensible" and "lucky."

Here's hoping that you figure it out safely.

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Response to Post removed (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:46 AM

3. Did your own research, did you?



A far greater risk that vaccine after vaccine might hurt my body


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Response to Scrivener7 (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:53 AM

10. Hold on. I see it s deleted now but that poster had a point.

I know someone who has fibromyalgia and the shots, any shots, wreck them for 2 days. They got vaxxed and boosted but it was a struggle.

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Response to underpants (Reply #10)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:55 AM

11. Hold on, I got seriously sick for a week after every shot so far. The argument the poster is making

is moronic.

And that person is making themself a vector for new variants and for spreading to other people.

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Response to Scrivener7 (Reply #11)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:59 AM

13. Hold on. I understand that

my point was that some people are willing to go through the pain but some are. We’re talking about full body pain for the person with fibromyalgia. That took a lot for them to do that.

On edit

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Response to underpants (Reply #13)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 07:28 PM

25. You are a kind and empathetic person. Me, not so much. Non-vaxxers just boil my blood.

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Response to cinematicdiversions (Original post)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:48 AM

5. For those intrerested in a good US based risk calculator

There is one at:

https://www.microcovid.org

(You can give it your location within the US and set up various exposure scenarios)

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Response to Otto_Harper (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:52 AM

7. Thank you.

Posted below using England but I thought it was strange that it didn’t ask about social contact - I’m back in the office. Wife works at home. Kid masked in school.

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Response to Otto_Harper (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 01:48 PM

23. Maybe I'm not using it right

But it tells me very high risk for being in a room with other fully vaccinated people.

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Response to Otto_Harper (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 01:54 PM

24. Am I hallucinating or is there not an option for teaching?

I teach in a place with high infection rates, with students of unknown vax status (they do at least have to wear a mask), in a room with no ventilation. These students are college age and I teach at a known party school...

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Response to cinematicdiversions (Original post)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:49 AM

6. Metrics huh? Well I found that out today. Not bad. Doesn't ask about social contact.

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Response to underpants (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 11:52 AM

8. I have a 1 in 563 chance of dying if I catch COVID-19

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Response to underpants (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 12:01 PM

14. Umm.......interesting scenarios to choose from....

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Response to underpants (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 12:20 PM

17. here is mine

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Response to Celerity (Reply #17)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 01:05 PM

19. 👍

A million to one shot Doc million to one.

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Response to underpants (Reply #19)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 01:28 PM

20. Yep, antivaxxers are insane fools, and I do not often make such extreme statements about personal

medical choices when it comes to selfish reasons (meaning not even judging about affecting other people, which of course is a HUGE issue with antivaxxer bellends).

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Response to Celerity (Reply #20)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 01:33 PM

22. It's ______ FREE

That’s what kills me. It’s right there.

Amazing.

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Response to cinematicdiversions (Original post)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 12:11 PM

15. Over a 90 day period -- in case anyone was wondering

The risk table
The table shows the absolute risk of catching and dying COVID-19 and catching and being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 over a 90-day period following a COVID-19 vaccination. It also shows the risk of a COVID-19 death in someone who has had a positive COVID-19 test result.

The calculator assumes that those who select the vaccinated option have had two doses of vaccine.

There is a comparison with the risk for a person of the same age and sex who has had a 2nd vaccine dose but with no risk factors and a body mass index of 25 kg/m2 The relative risk is the absolute risk divided by this average risk.


at my senior age, fully vaxxed, no risk factors other than age, not overweight,...

Risk of catching and being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 1 in 5,682

Risk of catching and dying from COVID-19 1 in 12,821

Risk of dying from COVID-19 following a positive test result 1 in 231 (eeek)

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Response to cinematicdiversions (Original post)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 12:44 PM

18. I believe the data is from a large Oxford University study

Conducted last spring. There is a pretty good chance your odds improve substantially with Omicron particularly if you got a booster.

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Response to cinematicdiversions (Original post)

Wed Jan 19, 2022, 01:32 PM

21. The vaccines work at keeping you alive. My risk factors are nominal.

Absolute risk (a) Absolute risk with no risk factors and fully vaccinated (b) Relative risk (a/b)
Risk of catching and being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 0.0096% 1 in 10,417 0.0097% 1 in 10,309 0.99
Risk of catching and dying from COVID-19 0.0018% 1 in 55,556 0.0018% 1 in 55,556 1.00
Risk of dying from COVID-19 following a positive test result 0.0726% 1 in 1,377 0.0713% 1 in 1,403 1.02

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