The two last events of importance are the GDP numbers (2%) and the Unemployment numbers-- narrative!

[andym]

Last edited Fri Oct 26, 2012, 11:49 AM - Edit history (1)

GDP number are due this Friday and Unemployment numbers are due next Friday. These both should have improved from the last reports and should help re-elect the President. However, it is important that the campaign and those of us working to help the President lay the groundwork, by talking about how the economy is making some improvement with acquaintances. The further the positive economic vibe spreads, the better the election will go. The campaign has already recognized this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251168198 "Obama’s eleventh-hour pitch: His ‘morning again in America’"

This is very important because Romney tends to be polling either tied or a few points higher than the President on the economy (look at Ipsos, Gallup, etc)-- not sure why, probably because he is considered a "businessman" by the low information voters. So good numbers will neutralize whatever effect this is having and help the President get the credit he deserves for saving the nation from Bush's and the GOP's mess.

Update:
As expected the GDP numbers were better than expected at 2%. Kick the improving recovery into gear, so the unemployment numbers next Friday will reinforce the narrative....

[elleng]

1. 'Some improvement,' and 'doing better' don't mean anything to those not positively affected,imo,

unfortunately. 'Academic.'

[andym]

3. Then you can limit the positive message to those who are doing OK

Obviously, someone who is unemployed is not going to listen. But plenty of people have jobs or are retired, and these should be our targets.

[budkin]

2. Didn't Gallup say that unemployment was dropping?

[andym]

4. It's at 7.4% on Gallup

that's why I expect good national numbers from the federal government.

[andym]

5. 2% GDP is better than expected just as predicted.

So, the Obama team should be moving ahead with the narrative that real recovery is here...

[bluestate10]

6. My perception over the last month,

was the growth in the economy accelerated sharply upward in the last 4-5 weeks. I could see the UE number tumbling as much as .5-.9% next Friday. I don't see it rising. When I talk to people that are not sure who they will vote for and wing-nuts that will listen, I point out my observations. The track is setting up perfectly for the President, the dagger in Romney's political heart should come out 5 days before the final vote, with just enough time to flip voters toward Obama for the final push.

[andym]

7. I see unemployment falling 0.3% to 7.5%-- but your numbers are even better (let's hope)

I agree with your analysis completely.