Good news for Omicron? UK may release new report confirming milder illness

[crimycarny]

Long thread but worth reading. UK is seeing milder cases too--not as in "no big deal" mild, but milder than Delta.

I know, I know...that doesn't mean we're out of the woods and I'm not downplaying it--just thought this was potentially good news especially for those of us vax'd and boosted. I still mask as I always have, and will continue to do so.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[StarryNite]

1. We shouldn't let our guard down but good news is sure welcome.

[crimycarny]

4. Never said anything about letting our guard down

As I wrote in my OP, I'm still masking and will continue to do so.

[RockRaven]

2. But it is also more infectious/transmissible, so our hospitals/clinics may still be overwhelmed...

All other things being equal, this factoid would be good news, but all other things are not equal... So...

[uponit7771]

3. The higher rate of infections were shown in both countries too there's no data showing we

... should extrapolate the US rate of infection with Omicron as "different" than theirs no?

tia

[crimycarny]

5. Yes--but can we at least have a LITTLE hope?

I hesitated to post this because I knew I'd get the usual "but we can't let our guard down", "it's still bad because x,y,z".

Seeing a ray of hope does not equal being dismissive or in denial. It's seeing a ray of hope--period.

Yes, there will likely be more infections but fewer deaths mean less need for ICU's versus regular hospitalizations. Healthcare workers will still be stretched to the max but maybe, just maybe, if their patients aren't dying left and right it will make that burden slightly easier?

So I'm going to continue being vigilant, as always, but I'm also going to ALLOW myself some hope.

[VarryOn]

7. Yes, we can! Thanks for the original post...

I'll take any good news I can get.

[Ms. Toad]

8. The problem is that most people (incuding far too many on DU)

Take a little bit of good news and treat it as the end of the need to be vigilant.

[crimycarny]

11. I don't think that at all

I think that too many people on DU worry that others won't be as vigilant. I think pretty much everyone here on DU is going to continue to be careful based on everything I've seen about DU'ers boosted and continuing to wear masks even after CDC stated they weren't necessary for masks. Everyone on DU seems pretty darn vigilant to me.

[Ms. Toad]

12. You're overlooking a lot of posts then. n/t

[crimycarny]

6. embedded in that long tweet is confirmation from Scotland - 2/3 reduction in hospitalizations

Interpretation
These early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta. Whilst offering the greatest protection against Delta, the third/booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 for Omicron when compared to ?25 weeks post second vaccine dose.

https://www.pure.ed.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/245818096/Severity_of_Omicron_variant_of_concern_and_vaccine_effectiveness_against_symptomatic_disease.pdf

[Ms. Toad]

9. So - 4.2 times more infectious with a 2/3 reduction in hospitalizations.

So with 100 hospitalizations/X infections of Delta, there will be 66 infections of Omicron/X infections.

BUT Delta is 4.2 times more infections.

So even if this is true over time (way too early to tell) that means if we start with equal numbers of infections of Deltan and Omicron (hint: We're already past that) - in the first round of transmission there will be 4.2X infections for Omicron for every X Delta infection - meaning there will be 277 hospitalizations for every 100 Delta hospitalizations.

Our hospitals are already at the breaking point.

[crimycarny]

10. No one is disputing that

Geezus! CAN WE ALSO TALK ABOUT THE GOOD NEWS WITH THE BAD???

Yes I know it's more contagious, yes I know we're not out of the woods, yes I understand all of that. But to be HAPPY that it looks like Omicron isn't as deadly as Delta is something to celebrate since we know it's far more contagious.

Omicron is here, we can't do anything about that, isn't it AT LEAST ok to be relieved it looks like it isn't as deadly considering it's far more contagious.

I'm so done trying to say anything positive on this site.

[Tomconroy]

13. UK cases for the moment have plateaued at 95000 per day for

The last six days. But it's summer in the UK.
And we have known since the summer for the fully vaccinated under 65 Covid is no longer a serious threat
And the science tells us you are much less likely to infect others if you are fully vaccinated!