General Discussion

berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts) Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:16 AM Oct 2012

Nate Silver just updated His Model. Obama just gained nearly an entire Percentage Point Tonight

And he's now back over 70% of a win. Woohoo!

On Update: I don't think the increase is due to the debate. I think the increase this evening is the momentum Obama had going into the debate. In the following days, Obama's numbers will continue to rise.

7 replies

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Nate Silver just updated His Model. Obama just gained nearly an entire Percentage Point Tonight (Original Post) berni_mccoy Oct 2012 OP

"nearly" 1 point???? WhaTHellsgoingonhere Oct 2012 #1

relax it will a couple of days... oldhippydude Oct 2012 #3

A one-point jump in a few hours this late in a campaign's not a small thing. (nt) Posteritatis Oct 2012 #7

2.5% since yesterday - 1% since earlier today krawhitham Oct 2012 #2

It will take some time for the polls to show what happened. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #4

As long as it up, I'll take it. Marie Marie Oct 2012 #5

Silver already said... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #6

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)

1. "nearly" 1 point????

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:18 AM

Oct 2012

oldhippydude

(2,514 posts)

3. relax it will a couple of days...

Reply to WhaTHellsgoingonhere (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:20 AM

Oct 2012

that point is either noise or good news before the debate..

Posteritatis

(18,807 posts)

7. A one-point jump in a few hours this late in a campaign's not a small thing. (nt)

Reply to WhaTHellsgoingonhere (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:49 AM

Oct 2012

krawhitham

(4,641 posts)

2. 2.5% since yesterday - 1% since earlier today

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:20 AM

Oct 2012

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

4. It will take some time for the polls to show what happened.

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:23 AM

Oct 2012

Marie Marie

(9,999 posts)

5. As long as it up, I'll take it.

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:25 AM

Oct 2012

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

6. Silver already said...

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:48 AM

Oct 2012

...that this late-night revision would be due to poll results that came in too late for inclusion in the usual simulation run for the day, not anything related to the debate.

Besides, both Nate and Sam Wang at PEC have said that third debates really have little effect on the election outcome. (Of course, this might become the exception that proves the rule.)

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