The latest polls from Suffolk & Emerson are awful.

[Drunken Irishman]

Suffolk has Democrats losing the generic ballot 46-38, which would likely result in one of the worst midterms in history. To put that into perspective, Democrats lost the popular vote by six in 2010 and still lost 63 seats.

Biden loses to Trump 40-44.

His approval is 38%.

Emerson's isn't much better. The generic ballot has the Democrats losing 49-42, with Biden losing to Trump 43-45.

Plenty of time to turn things around but this is startling and Dems need to be on top of it or 2022 is going to be a bloodbath.

I get polls are often wrong nowadays, but it seems almost universally since 2016 that the polls have been wrong against the Democrats. If that's true here, it might be even worse than the polls are saying.

Anyway, not time to panic yet but this is a bad end to the year for Biden and Democrats.

[QED]

1. What state is this?

[Drunken Irishman]

2. National.

[Lovie777]

3. It's a year away . ...

Let's work on getting Democrats elected.

2022 midtern, et al.,

[Turbineguy]

4. The republican voters want to destroy the country

and the democratic voters aren't willing to save it.

[MFM008]

5. Sorry

I dont believe anything any poll says anymore.

[totodeinhere]

16. I generally do not believe polls anymore either.

However, nevertheless I would be happier to see Democrats leading in those polls rather than the other way around.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. I agree but when polls are off they typically overestimate our side.

At least that's been the case the last two presidential elections.

[BlackSkimmer]

6. Only TFG had a lower approval rating at this point in his administration than Biden.

It’s troubling.

[Jarqui]

7. Many Americans are not reading, seeing or hearing the media

we do.

So many are going to come to the conclusions the media they read, see or listen to is jack hammering into their heads.

[triron]

8. What a fucking stupid electorate if these are even close to accurate.

[JohnSJ]

18. I would characterize it much stronger than that. What a racist, sexist populous. However, national

polls like this say very little and do not necessarily translate into votes

[triron]

41. They favor a would be dictator who tried to overthrow our elective process?

That is stupidity beyond comprehension. If I young I would say good bye to this and find somewhere else to live.

[JohnSJ]

43. I hear ya. That their behavior is even being entertained, is not a good sign

[Elessar Zappa]

9. The polls in the California recall

didn’t predict the Newsom “yes” landslide. But yeah, usually polling errors favor Republicans. These results aren’t good but we have a year to go and Americans have short political memories. What I think will determine how well we do in ‘22 is if the pandemic has receded and gas prices are much lower.

[Lovie777]

12. Also this was taken on Wednesday . ...

[Phoenix61]

23. Yep, Wed through Fri, before infrastructure bill passed. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

24. The final polls absolutely did predict a landslide forming.

The final polls had no leading by nearly 15 points on average. It was clear the polls were picking up a significant shift in the final weeks:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/ca/2021-california-governor-recall-election-7360.html

Emerson, the same poll I quote above, had no winning by 20 points.

[Elessar Zappa]

27. Ok, fair enough.

But my main point is that Dems do have time to turn this around. It’ll be a tough road to hoe but it’s not completely hopeless.

[Drunken Irishman]

28. Absolutely.

We really need the country to open up and the supply issue to resolve itself. I do think DU underestimates just how over the country is on COVID. I wish it wasn't the case but it absolutely is hurting us.

Still plenty of time to change things. You're right. California was looking dicey... until it wasn't.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

32. I'd expect things to look worse a little more before better

If supply issues affect Christmas badly, people aren't going to be happy and that's going to likely show in polling for a little bit. But there should be enough time to turn things around. Hopefully things normalize with COVID by summer though. Another summer with any covid restrictions will not go over well. This goes for schools too, if schools aren't back to normal for the next school year then I think we will get crushed.

[womanofthehills]

34. The country is totally divided on mandates and covid regulations in schools

I see this as a big problem as the young are demonstrating all over the world against vaccine passports.

[orleans]

37. they are? nt

[Drunken Irishman]

42. It's not that we're divided...

Virginia showed a decent majority of their voters supported the mandates - it's t hat those who oppose mandates REALLY FUCKING OPPOSE them. It's not the same emotion. Clearly. Because there were a lot of Virginians who support mandates but still voted Youngkin.

54% of those who voted in Virginia said they support businesses requiring the COVID vaccine. 43% oppose it.

Not quite 50/50, right?

But of those 54% who support it - 20% voted for Youngkin. Of the 43% who oppose it - only 12% voted for McAuliffe.

The division is the least concerning issue - it's that support for vaccine mandates are probably not making it their number one issue. Those who don't support it are. It's the same with masks and lockdowns.

And there, we're getting hammered.

[Mad_Machine76]

56. There are not many (any?) lockdowns anymore

Now that a lot of kids can start getting vaxxed, hopefully the schools can ease the mask restrictions but it just burns me that there are so many people whom are obsessed with the "issue" of masks instead of worrying about public health/kids' health and lives (and of the teachers and staff). How this country has handled this pandemic has been stupid to watch. We're doomed if we get an even worse disease spreading.

[Drunken Irishman]

57. I think the mask mandates are the toughest.

They're the point of so much contention - as well as business mandates for vaccines.

[Mad_Machine76]

58. It's really hard to care about people

Who don’t want this pandemic to end or are shortsighted or ignorant to be fighting- wittingly or unwittingly- against public health measures. But at this point if enough idiots out there want to live with COVID forever I guess that’s what we’re all gonna get. And we will deserve it.

[malletgirl02]

10. I know

the public has short memories, but this is ridiculous.

[elleng]

11. so useful,

I read them ALL the time.

[madville]

13. Ouch

If the midterms were today it would be catastrophic.

[Elessar Zappa]

14. Yes but they're not.

Plenty of time to turn this around but we have to start now.

[madville]

17. Independents are going to fire Congress

If they don’t figure out how to get inflation, grocery and gas prices under control. It’s the independents #1 issue and they swing the election.

[totodeinhere]

15. Especially regarding the Biden-Trump results, I would take that with a grain of salt.

It's too far out from the 2024 election to come to any conclusions. And hopefully passing the bipartisan infrastructure bill will reverse declining poll numbers for Democrats. But having said that, as we all know, the party of first term presidents historically has trouble in the next midterm elections. That's why I think it urgent to get as much progressive legislation as possible passed now while we still can.

[andym]

19. It's all about the narrative: Joe Biden has begun the process of recapturing it

Joe Biden's narrative is that he is an experienced, practical politician who will get things done for the American people. He started off well delivering the vaccines. His poll numbers were sky high.

But, then came the Afghanistan exit debacle, after which his poll numbers began to decline. Why? The deaths and sense of a foreign policy situation being out of control strengthened the counter-narrative by Republicans that Biden was old and incompetent. Though Afghanistan is largely now forgotten, it began the process of diminishing Biden's popularity. In the subsequent months, Democrats inability to pass thier legistlation further reinforced the incompetence narrative.

Now with the passage of the infrastructure bill, the original narrative of competence and getting things done should again begin to strengthen, and the counter-narrative weaken. It would be very helpful if the build-it-back better social legilstiaon could pass and if the debt limit vote would not turn into a major issue again. Furthermore, inflation due to supply chain effects will hopefully begin to get better in the Spring according to economists. Oil prices may decline as supply increases as well.

So there is room for a complete turnaround in the polls.

[Metaphorical]

30. My analysis as well

Biden knew that he would be facing strong headwinds going in - a small majority in the House, a squeaker of a majority in the Senate, a corporate media reflecting corporations and moneyed interest fighting tooth and nail to keep from losing the power they acquired under TFG, the Republican judicial stacking, the lingering effects of Covid and its impact on supply chains, and rabid fanaticism on the part of the MAGA crowd, all were going to make this period tough.

Midterms could go either way. I think its a crapshoot right now. I think by October, the economy will have recovered, and I think Covid-19 should be in the rearview mirror, even with the anti-vaxxers trying to drag things out. The supply-chain issues being faced right now were largely domino effects from last year, and they too should work themselves out. The infrastructure bill is a big win - it translates into jobs, many in economically disadvantaged areas, and by then it should result in considerable hiring. BBB may or may not pass, but taking Afghanistan off the table should both release funds and provide a better narrative that I think just hasn't been pushed as strongly yet as it could be.

Other factors - the Senate races put the GOP on the defensive this go-round. I think it likely that Biden will push Schumer to defang the filibuster. The fact that the infrastructure bill DID pass means that the Democratic ideologues are rethinking their stance and doing a bit of soul searching about letting the perfect stand in the way of the good. I support the progressive agenda, but I also think that the House in particular needs to learn to work together, or they WILL be in the minority next November.

[Tomconroy]

20. In June things were very different. It's a long way to go.

[elleng]

21. 'Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October,

and the unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, with notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education
declined over the month.'

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

[Drunken Irishman]

25. Cool.

[empedocles]

26. Would have been great to pass the big bill a few weeks ago, win Va.

NJ win, great economic stats last week, - Biden could be on a roll.

[Celerity]

29. The more (and longer) Manchin and Sinema fuck about with the BBB & the voter protection bills, the

worse it will get.

Fail to pass all of those and we will get crushed in a giant Red Wave, with that Red Wave made even bigger by voter suppression and election rigging of heretofore unseen levels since the height of Jim Crow.

[Elessar Zappa]

35. I think our fate

hinges on whether by November 2022 COVID restrictions are gone and gas and other goods go down in price. Of course voter suppression will always be a huge drag on us.

[Drunken Irishman]

38. I think that's exactly it.

I think COVID restrictions hurt Democrats last November and I think they'll kills us next November. Add the other pricing issues, and it's a perfect foundation for malaise to set in.

[Elessar Zappa]

44. I may be in a minority around here but

I think now that pretty much everyone has the chance to be vaccinated, all restrictions should be lifted and each individual can decide how much personal risk they’re willing to take.

[Drunken Irishman]

45. I don't have a problem with that. My concern continues to be ICUs, tho.

Which are overcrowded because these people are taking the risks, getting COVID, getting REALLY sick and having to go to emergency.

But if in a year, we're still battling restrictions, I think we're going to lose. Fortunately, I do think Biden has done a good job not reacting to MORE restrictions on the whole. He said a few times during the campaign last year he would listen to the science and if the science told him another lockdown would be necessary, he'd do it. But he hasn't moved in that direction yet. Probably because he knows it'll kill him politically.

[Mad_Machine76]

53. What restrictions are even left?

Some businesses and schools have mask mandates but around here (Indiana) things are about as “normal” as they’ve ever been during the past year. I just got back from Disney World and, masks aside, it was as voluminous a crowd and open as it was in 2015

[Cosmocat]

31. This is where things are and TOTALLY predictable

Ds can only get fully engaged for a presidential election, then lose a lot of voters to hibernation.

Rs get even meaner and ruthless after loses.

Media grits its teeth to allow the much better D win a presidential with the R being a train wreck, and are EAGER to drum up bullshit to drag the D potus down.

[Takket]

33. you can pretty much toss out any poll taken before BIF and BBB pass.

[ColinC]

36. Could be better

Could be worse

Could get better, could get worse. We have a year to go and a lot could happen between now and then. Let's not jump to conclusions quite yet.

[iemanja]

39. Trump may not even be alive in 2024

and Biden might not seek reelection. Polls at this point are meaningless. Of course, they are usually meaningless at any point.

[ColinC]

46. They are usually meaningless at this point, but because of what you point out

They are even more meaningless than usual

[orleans]

40. wgn news just mentioned this poll and the suck number

so i googled and was looking at the article
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/580460-biden-approval-rating-drops-to-new-low-of-38-percent-poll

who the fuck were they polling?

and i wonder what were other possible leading questions (and answer options such as yes or no OR completely agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, completely disagree - etc. )

[OrlandoDem2]

47. That would be a bloodbath and mean a loss of 80 seats.

Or more.

Geez what is wrong with people?

That said, Democrats need to address gas prices. We’ve gotta get Covid under control. Now. Drop the restrictions! People are over it. We have the vaccine so it’s time to move into a new phase.

[Blaukraut]

48. You know what? If after all what happened voters pick Trump over Biden, so be it

They pick what they want to go with, their eyes wide open. not much we can do about it to fix it unless we figure out a way to scare the shit out of them about Republicans. Short of that, nothing will work.

[womanofthehills]

49. If you check out Twitter - people are pissed at mandates

Mandates will do us in. And Kamala’s numbers are even lower. They need to quickly give her more power & visibility.

[BlueStater]

50. I call bullshit on Biden losing to that orange fuck.

That piece of shit lost the election last year by 7 million votes and most people hate his guts. We could nominate a ham sandwich against him and the massive disdain everyone has for that scumbag would still bring them out to the voting booths. Who the fuck did they poll to get these bogus results?

[Drunken Irishman]

51. Trump won 47% of the vote.

So, he definitely has support. The thing is, these polls only show Trump has a bit more support than Biden but overall, a huge amount of those who voted for both in 2020 are undecided.

[Mr.Bill]

52. I would bet that a national poll right now

would say that a pretty good percentage of the people would like a nuclear bomb to be dropped on Washington DC.

[MFM008]

54. There is a good chance

if maggot isnt dead he may be under indictment BUT
Actually him running is one way to get out democratic voters out
in droves again.
nothing drives voters like hatred, especially ours of him.

[Mad_Machine76]

55. Not good

but not necessarily predictive of much right now, certainly not for 2024. It really sucks that people seem to be pretty sour on Biden after the s**tshow of the previous 4 years but he almost couldn't have been dealt a worse hand to start with. Even as rough as the first year was on Obama, even he didn't have a pandemic to deal with (let alone one that Republican politicians in several states continue to persist on prolonging) and had bigger majorities in Congress. I guess that we get the country we deserve, which is a neverending dystopian toxic right-wing nightmare that not enough people seem to care about improving.