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Mon Nov 1, 2021, 10:49 PM

Polls....meh. I say many of them are created so the candidates spend more money.

A poll from a couple months before the waste of money election:


Results:
Newsom remains in office: 61.9%
Remove Newsom for a GOP nut: 38.1% (and the winning nutcase GOP only got 1/2 of that 38%...so that would be 19% of the vote for Elder).

I think it's important to look back at these dumbass polls.

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Reply Polls....meh. I say many of them are created so the candidates spend more money. (Original post)
C Moon Nov 1 OP
Drunken Irishman Nov 1 #1
C Moon Nov 1 #3
Drunken Irishman Nov 1 #4
C Moon Nov 1 #6
Hav Nov 2 #10
brooklynite Nov 1 #2
Polybius Nov 1 #5
emulatorloo Nov 2 #7
onenote Nov 2 #8
uponit7771 Nov 2 #9

Response to C Moon (Original post)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 10:52 PM

1. The race likely did tighten...

But those same polls you dismiss also showed Newsom opening up a sizable lead late (well, no on recall opening a lead). It's likely the fact the polls narrowed that led to Newsom's big win because it turned voters on to the idea that Larry Elder may actually become governor.

The problem with comparing a story from July, to the results we saw in September, is that we're not looking at a situation where there's still months left in the campaign.

The polls shifted dramatically in the final weeks of the California recall:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/ca/2021-california-governor-recall-election-7360.html

Unfortunately, in Virginia, they've narrowed - not worked in McAuliffe's favor. In fact, McAuliffe is now trailing in every recent poll:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html

He's likely going to lose.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 11:06 PM

3. After they started spending more money to make sure that lead happened.

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Response to C Moon (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 11:11 PM

4. Your own logic has failed.

None of what transpired in California has transpired in Virginia. In fact, the opposite is happening.

McAuliffe went from leading by an average of 5 points on October 1st to trailing now by an average of 2 points a day before the election. That did not happen in California. The final polls showed a clear and distinct trend in favor of keeping Newsom.

No such shift has occurred in Virginia. If anything, the trend is going the wrong way - it's Youngkin who has the late lead.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #4)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 11:59 PM

6. :/

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Response to C Moon (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 2, 2021, 06:43 PM

10. The campaigns also conduct internal polls

and often have a pretty good picture of the state of a race. Are they misleading themselves?

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Response to C Moon (Original post)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 10:56 PM

2. A fresh conspiracy theory...

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Response to C Moon (Original post)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 11:35 PM

5. That pic says July 29th

It was tightening then, but the Republicans ran a moron who put his foot in his mouth daily.

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Response to C Moon (Original post)

Tue Nov 2, 2021, 03:44 PM

7. What's 'poll truther' stuff doing at DU? That's usually on GOP'er sites

They’re always “unscewing polls” or claiming the major pollsters are fake.

And yes C Moon, I know you are no right winger.

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Response to C Moon (Original post)

Tue Nov 2, 2021, 05:44 PM

8. Why would candidates spend less money if there were no polls?

They still would want to convince voters to support them and if there were no polls, they'd have no idea how they were doing.

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Response to C Moon (Original post)

Tue Nov 2, 2021, 06:36 PM

9. Only in America is the polling SOO BAD !! Voter Suppression WORKS !! In States where there's LESS

... voter suppression there are more accurate polls I bet

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