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Tue Oct 12, 2021, 11:09 PM

EU-UK trade war looming as Northern Ireland Protocol tensions hit boiling point

The UK and the EU are on a collision course that could result in a trade war. Although Brexit was finalized at the end of the transition period in January, EU-UK relations remain envenomed by the question of Northern Ireland's post-Brexit trading arrangements — the same issue that dominated negotiations in the years prior to the UK's departure from the European Union.

The Northern Ireland Protocol is a series of agreed special trading arrangements for the UK-administered Northern Ireland, and the UK government says it wants it to be substantially rewritten. The EU insists that the main terms of the protocol must remain in place.

Things come to a head this week. On Tuesday, the UK's Brexit minister, David Frost, gave a speech in Lisbon where hedoubled down on previous UK threats to walk away from the protocol if the EU does not agree to wholesale changes, including the removal of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as a legal arbiter. Frost said the protocol was the "biggest source of mistrust between us" and urged the EU not to make "a serious historical error."

His speech came ahead of the European Commission's releasing its own proposals on Wednesday on how to amend the protocol.

European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic has made several trips to Northern Ireland in 2021 with a view to making improvements to the protocol from the perspective of Northern Irish business people. The proposals he and the Commission will announce are expected to significantly ease rules around the movement of medicines and agrifoods from Britain to Northern Ireland.

The UK's demand that the jurisdiction of the ECJ be removed from the protocol, first mooted in July, will not be met by the EU. Frost's speech therefore raises serious doubts over the two sides' capacity to uphold the protocol and, as a result, their post-Brexit deal, known as the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-uk-trade-war-looming-as-northern-ireland-protocol-tensions-hit-boiling-point/a-59480437

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Reply EU-UK trade war looming as Northern Ireland Protocol tensions hit boiling point (Original post)
Klaralven Oct 12 OP
Takket Oct 12 #1
roamer65 Wednesday #2
abqtommy Wednesday #3
Klaralven Wednesday #4
OnDoutside Wednesday #7
roamer65 Wednesday #9
OnDoutside Thursday #10
PaddyIrishman Thursday #11
muriel_volestrangler Wednesday #5
Klaralven Wednesday #6
OnDoutside Wednesday #8

Response to Klaralven (Original post)

Tue Oct 12, 2021, 11:18 PM

1. UK: I want a divorce!!!

Also UK: now that we’ve divorced, here are some demands I have for what you’re allowed to do for the rest of your life.

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Response to Klaralven (Original post)

Wed Oct 13, 2021, 01:03 AM

2. Northern Ireland and Scotland need to leave the UK.

There is no future for them in it.

Leave the UK and go back to the EU.

NI can do it by simply calling a referendum to leave the UK and unite with Ireland.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 13, 2021, 07:10 AM

3. Oh please make it so! nt

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 13, 2021, 08:42 AM

4. It appears that a referendum would fail.

Two-thirds of voters in Northern Ireland believe there should be a vote over its place in the UK, but only 37% want it to take place within the next five years, according to a new poll for the Observer.

Some 31% of voters said there should be a vote at some point about Northern Ireland’s place in the UK but after 2026, the LucidTalk poll found. A further 29% said there should never be such a vote. There is currently a seven-point lead for Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK should any vote take place.

Asked to state how they would vote, 49% said they would back remaining in the UK, while 42% backed being part of a united Ireland, with 9% saying they did not know. Other recent surveys have put support for a united Ireland much lower. The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, published in June, suggested that 30% backed a united Ireland.

There have been persistent concerns within the UK government that the fallout from Brexit could lead to increased support for a united Ireland, with problems still continuing over the Northern Ireland protocol – an element of the Brexit deal that has effectively erected barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The UK government is attempting to renegotiate the deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/29/majority-of-northern-irish-voters-want-vote-on-staying-in-uk

Depending on how things go, opinions could change and a successful vote could be held.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 13, 2021, 03:01 PM

7. Not quite, the British Government have to agree to the Scottish referendum, which the NI Secretary

has to agree to the "Border Poll" in NI. That said, many of us in the Republic of Ireland fear NI coming in with us.

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Response to OnDoutside (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 13, 2021, 10:51 PM

9. Let Brexit play out.

In a few years, a solid majority in NI will be begging for unification.

Indyref2 in Scotland is a much harder task, but it can happen given favorable court rulings.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #9)

Thu Oct 14, 2021, 02:03 AM

10. The big issue for me, apart from taking on a bucket of poison in

both nationalists and unionists, is the unfortunate reality that the shinners in the Republic could lie their way into government here, and once in would push immediately for a border poll. This could easily result in renewed violence, maybe even to a civil war. It wouldn't help that they'll be as authoritarian as the Trump GOP.

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Response to OnDoutside (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 14, 2021, 07:30 AM

11. the next Northern Ireland Assembly Elections will be telling

The NI Assembly in Stormont is limping along on life support and the DUP (the main Unionist party) have threatened to pull down the executive later this month. Their polling figures are abysmal at present.

If they do so and force elections in the lead in to Christmas while Britain suffers shortages of every kind imaginable while NI doesn't it will not go well for the DUP.

For the first time ever, it is possible that business in NI will be completely divorced from the unionist parties and they will have surrendered the centre ground entirely. They are also fighting with each other which is not a good look in multi seat constituencies where voters vote a preference.

It's possible, predicted even, that Sinn Féin will overtake the DUP and become the largest party in the Assembly and then be entitled to nominate a First Minister. The first action of that First Minister will be to look for a border poll.

It may suit the Brexiteers to allow a border poll to get rid of NI and allow them to have the Brexit they so badly want, especially if it acts as a distraction to a disastrous Christmas period.

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Response to Klaralven (Original post)

Wed Oct 13, 2021, 12:32 PM

5. Dominic Cummings says UK always intended to ditch NI protocol

The UK government always intended to “ditch” the Northern Ireland protocol, Boris Johnson’s former adviser Dominic Cummings has claimed.
...


His remarks have caused alarm in Dublin, where the former taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who negotiated the Northern Ireland protocol with Johnson at a meeting in Wirral in October 2019, said that, if true, they showed the government could not be trusted.

“Those comments are very alarming because that would indicate that this is a government administration that acted in bad faith,” Varadkar said. “And that message needs to be heard around the world, because if the British government doesn’t honour its agreements, doesn’t adhere to treaties it signs, that must apply to everyone else too.

“So at the moment they’re going around the world they are trying to negotiate new trade agreements. The message must go out to all countries around the world that this is a British government that doesn’t necessarily keep its word, doesn’t necessarily honour the agreements it makes.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/13/dominic-cummings-says-uk-always-intended-to-ditch-ni-protocol-brexit

So they lied to the EU, just for internal partisan reasons, to get a deal they intended to break, but market as "over-ready" in an election; they then lied to the British electorate about their policies; and now they expect to be able to renegotiate, as if they have any credibility left.

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 13, 2021, 01:01 PM

6. EU should not be surprised. Duplicity has been a hallmark of English diplomacy for centuries.

We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.

Lord Palmerston

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Response to Klaralven (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 13, 2021, 03:04 PM

8. Exactly.

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