The German election--a week out.

[DFW]

Next Sunday, the 26th, Germany goes to the polls.

Unlike the very clear choice we had last year, the Germans are faced with an unfortunate choice of SIX different parties, all of whom will probably get over the 5% hurdle necessary to have any seats in their Parliament, the Bundestag.

There is the SPD (Social Democrats), who ran a miserable candidate last time, and polled a record low 20%, the CDU/CSU (so-called "Christian" Democrats), Merkel's party, the Greens, the far right AfD (Allianz für Deutschland), the FDP (Free Democrats, a sort-of pro-business party), and Die Linken (the Leftists), a put-together party of far leftists who are what is left over of the old East German "Socialist Unity Party" of the old East Germany plus their sympathizers from around the West.

According to the latest poll in this morning's newspaper (and this is just one poll--others may vary widely), the SPD leads with a pitiful 25%, the CDU/CSU is close behind with an even more pitiful 22%, the Greens with a respectable (for them) 16%, the AfD and FDP both at 11% and Die Linken with 8%.

There are other parties, for whom posters abound everywhere. "Die Partei," or "the party," who stands for nobody-knows-what, and the ML Partei, the "Marxist-Leninist Party," for whom even "the Leftists" aren't far enough to the left. It should be noted that these last two have about as much chance of getting into the Bundestag as Donald Trump has of seducing Scarlett Johanssen at a public pool party.

But even six parties is way too many. Not even two parties will have anywhere near enough votes to form a governing coalition, which means the outcome, barring a surprise, will be an unhappy three-way marriage, with the smallest of the three holding the other two hostage if it isn't allowed to wield influence in far greater proportion to the people who voted for them. Fortunately, the "conservatives," the CDU/CSU, have stated clearly and unequivocally that they would never enter a coalition with the AfD,even if it meant ceding power and going into the opposition. UNfortunately, the SPD has NOT stated that they would never enter a coalition with Die Linken. Neo-Nazis bad, the murderers of the Berlin Wall, not so bad. The SPD hasn't held the Chancellor's seat for 16 years. They are hungrier, and are willing to eat a little poison if it means they take power.

My poor wife is totally pissed at the choices, and the lukewarm (SPD and CDU)-to-slimy (FDP) candidates leading the parties. All her life, she has been a reliable SPD or Greens voter (she once broke to vote for Merkel last time) all her life, and can't find anyone to vote for this time. All the leaders of the major parties this time are professional politicians. They have spent their whole lives preaching theories to the public without ever once earning their living out there in the real world like the rest of us mortals. Their politics, accompanied by the same tired old slogans repeated ad nauseam, reflects it. At least last year, at the presidential level, Americans had a choice that couldn't have been clearer. She envies us that. She will end up voting for the SPD or the Greens, but this time, holding her nose all the while. This time, I don't envy her.

[druidity33]

1. Does this mean...

Merkel is more or less likely to be the titular leader after the election? Honestly, i actually kinda like her.... without knowing very much about her, true. Do you think the new administration (whoever that may be) is likely to make any big changes? Good luck out there...

K&R

[DFW]

4. Merkel is retiring

She was an academic drawn into politics a few decades ago. I think she's done with the whole thing. She did what she could under the circumstances given. She was forced to deal with Cheneybush, blessed to work with Obama and Cheney, horrified at having to work with Trump and his thugs, and pleased to go out with Biden, whom she knew from the Obama days. But four four-year terms was enough, she felt, and who can blame her. Even FDR didn't serve that long.

The new administration here will sluggishly drag on the status quo if the main coalition partners are the same two that run the place now (SPD and CDU), although they will really be hamstrung if the third partner is the FDP, who seems to kiss the ass of the fossil fuel industry. With taxes already among the highest anywhere, the SPD and Greens want even higher taxes, and the countries on Germany's border are drooling at getting some of the eventual spillage if the German government decides to bite the hands that feed them. Nokia, the phone maker, had a factory here in Germany with 4000 employees. They closed the factory on ground of too high costs, and moved the whole operation to Romania, where their new factory flopped, since the quality of work sank ebelow their monetary savaings from the move. But they didn't come, back, but instead moved to China.

They are making noises about a wealth tax, but that is already dead on arrival. The German constitution forbids double taxation, and since a wealth tax would hit declared wealth already taxed, it is unconstitutional here. It was already put before the Court here once before, and it failed. Germans are still a little sensitive about doubly taxing people they think have too much money, even if legally acquired. It seems that was done here on a massive scale about 80 years ago, and current law forbids it keeping that in mind.

[OldEurope]

2. Afd is not...

..."Allianz für Deutschland" but "Alternative für Deutschland". Also, they are disgusting, Nazis.

[DFW]

5. You're right, I was looking at an insurance bill when I wrote it

Allianz is the Insurance company. Alternative is the party. They ARE pretty disgusting.

In this case, calling them Nazis is close to the mark. They are extreme nationalists, and the first word of Hitler's party, the NSDAP, was "National," which in German is pronounced "NAH-tsee-oh-NAHL," from which the first two syllable were taken as an abbreviation.

For out Republican visitors, by the way, just so you know whom we're talking about, that's "Nazi's" to you. Republicanese uses an apostrophe to form a plural, where English does not.

[Elessar Zappa]

3. I still like

the idea of having multiple, competitive parties, as opposed to our two party system here in the US. Multiple viewpoints are a good thing, imo, and give voters more of a choice.

[DFW]

6. Competitive is one thing. Chaos is another

The reason Hitler was able to take power in 1933 with 43% of the vote is that the rest was splintered among a dozen or more parties. That is just too unwieldy to form a functioning government. "Let a hundred flowers bloom" may sound nice, but in a small garden, it gets crowded, and even Mao never let more than one party rule, no matter how many schools of thought he would let contend.

The Democratic Party has plenty of multiple viewpoints within it. Just ask Elizabeth Warren and Joe Manchin. So do the Republicans, for that matter, even if 99% of them are too terrified to say so in public for now.

[Klaralven]

7. According to Politico's synthesis of polls, things have been pretty static since beginning of Sept.

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/

This shows Die Linken at 6%. If it went below 5, then the allocation of seats might enable another Red-Black coalition, with the SPD in the lead this time.

Most of our presidential candidates have been Members of Congress or Governor prior to running for President. Before Trump, the last one who had not been such was Eisenhower. Most of the candidates with any real-world experience were those that had been governors. Some had done things like peanut farming or acting prior to running for Governor. Other ex-governors like Dukakis and GW Bush hadn't done much of anything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_candidates

[DFW]

8. Another four years of red-black would be pretty boring

Although in Germany, boring at the national level if often preferable to exciting. Interestingly enough, an old (75) friend of ours, who is as solid an SPD voter as could be imagined, and always a foe of "Grand Coalitions," would actually prefer one this time, as he trust none of the smaller potential coalition partners to be content with the role their smaller number of votes should theoretically allow them.

Last time, it seemed certain that the CDU would have a coalition with the Greens and the FDP, which would have made things interesting. But Merkel was really spooked by Fukushima, and wanted Germany to turn heavily toward renewable energy, where the FDP was behaving as if it was in the pocket of the fossil fuel industry. They never deviated from that stance, so both Merkel and the Greens said get lost, even though it meant the Greens would get shut out of participation in Merkel's last government.

If the current numbers hold, an SPD/Greens/FDP constellation would just barely be enough for a coalition topping 50%, where a CDU/Greens/FDP would not. About the only solid likelihood is that whatever government gets in will not rock the boat too much unless the SPD lets the Leftists into a coalition with the Greens. Sparks might fly in that case.

[Klaralven]

9. If percentages hold, would Olaf Scholz of the SPD be asked to form the coalition?

It appeared that he was also the most popular leader as an individual among the various party leaders, and thus partly responsible for the rising fortunes of the SPD.

All these "traffic light", "Jamaica", and "Kenya" coalitions seem complicated and unlikely to last too long.

[DFW]

10. That is correct. Scholz would become Chancellor

I think any coalition would hold if for no other reason that any party other than the CDU is SO desperate for some power that they will swallow a lot just to have a say in national politics. Any of them that gets to be a part of the coalition will make noise and demands, but I think even Lindner of the FDP would rather be in than out this time.

Any combination is a possibility this time, though I would be surprised to see “Jamaica” since it would involve shutting the SPD out after making the strongest showing. It could still happen, but Scholz is still more popular than Laschet. Scholz’s refusal to say he won’t work with the Linken hurt him where Laschet’s categorical refusal to work with the AfD helped him. A little guts never hurt. You would have thought Merkel would have shown them that after all this time, but I guess not.

“Traffic Light” is a definite possibility. If there is a bigger gap than expected between a dominant SPD and a weak CDU, it becomes more likely. If the SPD and the CDU are neck and neck, I’d say Kenya is more likely, although there will be a lot of screaming and shouting before anything ever gets done.