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Fri Aug 27, 2021, 02:43 PM

538 averages for CA recall (Keep +4)

Don't pop out the champagne yet, but it looks like at least the polling is getting dramatically better. There is now only one poll in the latest averages that is favoring removal.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/?cid=rrpromo

Californians: If you haven't already sent back your ballot, please do. And if you plan to vote in person, please do it as soon as possible. Some folks I know already misplaced their ballots because they procrastinated.

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Reply 538 averages for CA recall (Keep +4) (Original post)
ColinC Aug 2021 OP
Journeyman Aug 2021 #1
ColinC Aug 2021 #2

Response to ColinC (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 02:51 PM

1. Hillary Clinton was heavily favored to win in 2016, so I put little stock in polls . . .

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Response to Journeyman (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 03:11 PM

2. I put little stock in a +4 lead (which hillary had and nearly attained on election day)

But with COVID, GOTV is heavily still favored with the GOP. So without a strong GOTV effort, we need a much larger lead than 4

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