Pandemic gun violence surge was not linked to rise in gun sales, study finds

[Devil Child]

Through July of last year, there was no clear association between the increase in firearm purchases and the increase in most interpersonal gun violence at the state level, according to a new study published in Injury Epidemiology, a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

The findings suggest that “we need to be looking at other factors, like job loss, economic change, the closure of schools and community organizations and nonprofits, and civil unrest,” in order to understand last year’s increase in gun violence, Julia Schleimer, the lead author of the new study, said.

There did appear to be some association between the increase in gun purchasing and an increase in domestic violence gun injuries in April and May, but that correlation might also be explained by other factors, including increased substance abuse or the decreased access to domestic violence support services during the early months of lockdown, Schleimer said.

Article available at The Guardian.

Study available here.

[AndyS]

1. The headline is misleading at the very least.

Increases in purchasing may have contributed to additional firearm injuries from domestic violence in April and May. Results suggest much of the rise in firearm violence during our study period was attributable to other factors, indicating a need for additional research.

Also cited in the OP. I don't question the study or the (non) conclusions. I question the headline which says one thing while the conclusion says another.

The headline isn't exactly bullshit but it appears to some kind of excrement. Further study is needed to determine what kind of animal left it on the internet.

[Devil Child]

2. For headline questions I suggest contacting Lois Beckett

https://www.theguardian.com/profile/lois-beckett

and

https://twitter.com/loisbeckett

Good luck and take care!

[AndyS]

3. Oh, I understand that the headline is the headline and attribute no responsibility to the OP.

However, my comment stands or falls on its relevance as should the headline.

Have a good, Ya'll.

[DemUnleashed]

4. It's Simple

My simple explanation for the increase in gun violence...Trump has brought all the crazies out!

[TheProle]

7. Actually it's not simple

That's why scientists conduct studies, write papers and have them peer-reviewed.

[BGBD]

5. It stands to reason

that even a huge increase in gun sales wouldn't lead to a huge increase in gun violence because of the number we already have.

There are something like 400 million guns already in circulation in the country. If you add 50k or even 500k more, that's not going to change much. They are going to go heavily to people who already own at least one and there is nearly nobody in this country that doesn't have access to a gun in one way or another already, legal or not.

If you want to commit a crime with a gun there aren't many barriers to accessing one without making a purchase.

Maybe possessing a gun makes you more likely to commit a gun crime, but only a small number of gun sales will be to first time buyers who also don't have easy access to another gun. Only a small number of those people will actually shoot anyone.

It's a pretty small number to consider being responsible for a noticeable uptick in gun violence.

Essentially it's the law of diminishing returns.

The first 100,000 guns in a population would lead to a immense increase in gun-related crime, but 100,000 additions after 400 millions guns isn't going to increase the crime rate by the same.

[AndyS]

8. You're not taking into account the first time gun buyers during the pandemic.

Anecdotally many gun purchases are additions to guns already owned. Purchases during the pandemic were at very high levels for new owners which, again anecdotally, tend to by less well trained and equipped to be safe with them.

What? Did I just use safe and gun in the same sentence? Guns are inherently not safe.

[BGBD]

9. That's assuming

that everyone filling out a background check for the time is also a first time gun owner. That's not the case. Personally the first time I did a background check was when I bought a pistol in around 2008....but I had owned a gun at least 10 years before that...and several in fact.

That's why I mentioned the increase not in first time gun buyers, but instead of people who previously didn't have ready access to a gun. That number I suspect is much smaller.

If murders increased I would assume that it's because in 2020 we were all forced to be locked up with the people most likely to murder us....our families.

[AndyS]

10. I'm passing on things I read in a number of different reliable sources. Real information is hard to

find because, well, guns. It's very difficult to get hard numbers on almost any gun data.

In any event graphs of gun inventory, gun sales and homicides will mirror each other in amazing similarity.

While causality is difficult to show, correlation is simple to see. More of any given object in a closed system will necessarily result in more consequences of that thing's presence. For instance more cars on a freeway will necessarily result in more vehicular interaction. No one accident can be attributed to the increase however there will be more accidents.

We may be talking about differences without distinctions.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Of course it might be the perps already have their guns or buy them illegally pre-shooting

But proceed, Guardian. Proceed.