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Tue Jun 15, 2021, 07:32 AM

NYC Mayor: Adams and Garcia neck and neck in latest Manhattan Institute poll

City Journal

With New York City’s mayoral primary just around the corner, Kathryn Garcia and Maya Wiley are challenging Eric Adams for the top spot, while Andrew Yang is fading from the front rank, according to a June 9–13 poll of likely Democratic primary voters conducted for the Manhattan Institute.*

Adams, the Brooklyn borough president, and former sanitation commissioner Garcia are neck-and-neck as primary voters’ first choice at 21 percent and 20 percent, respectively, with attorney Wiley in third at 18 percent, followed by entrepreneur Yang at 13 percent. All other candidates rank in the single digits on the first-choice ballot. Since our poll of the race in mid-May, Garcia and Wiley have gained the most (nine points and eight points, respectively), while Yang has fallen by six points. The share of undecided primary voters has fallen by five points from mid-May to 9 percent.

On the eleventh round of a recalculated ballot under the ranked-choice system, our analysis finds that Garcia defeats Adams, 52 percent to 48 percent. While Wiley makes it to the next-to-last ballot, her voters preferred Garcia over Adams on the final round. Garcia also bested Adams among white voters on the final ballot by a margin of 44 points.



Every poll has consistently shown Yang's performance dropping; the last two show him falling into 4th place. It appears he never had more than name recognition.

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Reply NYC Mayor: Adams and Garcia neck and neck in latest Manhattan Institute poll (Original post)
brooklynite Jun 15 OP
RegularJam Jun 15 #1
brooklynite Jun 15 #3
RegularJam Jun 15 #4
brooklynite Jun 15 #5
RegularJam Jun 15 #6
secondwind Jun 15 #2
frazzled Jun 15 #7
panader0 Jun 15 #8

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 07:41 AM

1. Not a huge block of undecideds to pick off.

 

But it’s enough to swing this contest in multiple ways.

Not sure why some have an obsession over hoping Yang fails. We have what looks to be a positive race, the article does a good job of highlighting it, yet the comment is about Yang and based in the negative. Seems like an ivory tower dem working to create a negative where none exists.

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Response to RegularJam (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 07:53 AM

3. "Obsession"?

I'm opposed to Yang because he has no relevant experience to running the largest City Government in the nation, as well as no actual plan to implement the innovative concepts that he gets known for. That said, the NEWS STORY is that the candidate who was in first place in the early months of the campaign has dropped to second, third and fourth place as voters have started to focus on the candidates.

Now, if it makes you feel better, I'm equally opposed to Adams (who's still at the top of the pile) because of his pro-gun philosophy and his coziness with developers.

Alternatively, I could focus on the fact that in the 8th round, the progressive candidates are only collecting 1/3 of the Democratic vote, in comparison to the moderates.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 07:59 AM

4. Yeah. I was aware from your op that you were opposed to a Democrat down in the polls.

 

Not sure why you put the word obsession in quotes. After reading the rest it seems to fit perfectly. Well done.

My heart goes out to you and your personal Yang struggle.

Looks like a good race.

Looking down and attacking Democrats over personal feelings is a solid pastime for some. Lots of good there to speak positive about Democrats but it’s best for some to kick a Democrat while they are down.

I’m getting an ivory tower vibe.

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Response to RegularJam (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 08:18 AM

5. Now, where could I have picked up the word "obsession"?

Not sure why some have an obsession over hoping Yang fails


You’re aware that this is a Primary, and that by picking a candidate, you’re “hoping” the other candidates (all Democrats) win?


Out of curiosity, do you apply the same opinion of people here who are critical of Nina Turner in the OH-11 race?

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 08:26 AM

6. I'm happy for you that Yang isn't doing well.

 

Nina goes after Democrats in a similar way to you. Find a point of insignificance in the big picture and revel in negativity over it.

“ You’re aware that this is a Primary, and that by picking a candidate, you’re “hoping” the other candidates (all Democrats) win? ”

Logical fallacy.

I was comfortable about my ivory tower comment but it’s now confirmed. So easy to spot.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 07:45 AM

2. I don't think Yang demonstrated that he really cared about NYC.

He’s a good man, but my gut tells me that he’s not that emotionally involved. Perhaps that’s how he is.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 09:06 AM

7. Does this poll assume every voter ranks all 5 choices?

That almost never happens in ranked-choice voting. So it’s like roller derby at this point among the top 3.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 09:21 AM

8. "Paperboy Love Prince"?

Looks like he won't make it---damn.

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