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Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:22 PM

How Low Can America's Birth Rate Go Before It's A Problem?

I found this article to be amusing, particularly the last paragraph copied here. Yeah, human extinction is a real threat right about now.

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The U.S. fertility rate hit a record low in 2020 — just as it did in 2019, and 2018. Although the COVID-19 pandemic seems to have accelerated this decline, the drop has been underway for years. The total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — now sits at 1.64 children per woman in the U.S. Not only is this the lowest rate recorded since the government began tracking these stats in the 1930s, but it’s well below the so-called “replacement-level fertility” of about 2.1.

The latter number is what social scientists and policymakers have long regarded as the rate a country should maintain to keep population numbers stable. When the fertility rate falls below replacement level, the population grows older and shrinks, which can slow economic growth and strain government budgets. Today’s babies are tomorrow’s workers and taxpayers: They’ll not only staff the hospitals and nursing homes we’ll use in old age but also sustain the economy by funding our pensions when we retire, paying the taxes that finance Social Security, Medicare, and many other government programs we’ll rely on, and buying the homes and stocks we invested in to build our savings.

But recently, some experts have questioned whether we ought to be so concerned about low fertility. “There’s nothing really magical about replacement-level fertility,” said Erich Striessnig, a professor of demography and sustainable development at the University of Vienna. There are ways to overcome the challenges of low fertility, but it’ll take an investment in the people who have been born already.

***snip***

Others point out that the problems of low fertility may get thornier when the overall size of the population begins to shrink. “What happens to mortgages in a country where real estate depreciates like a used car because the population is falling and we need fewer and fewer houses all the time? We’re totally unprepared for that,” said Lyman Stone, a demographer and research fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, a conservative-leaning think tank. And given enough time, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, below-replacement fertility leads to the extinction of the human race. “Eventually, you run into a problem,” he said. “It’s not a sustainable solution.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-low-can-americas-birth-rate-go-before-its-a-problem/

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Somehow, I don't think this should be at the top of our worry list.
And if we do go extinct somehow along the road, all the better for the rest of the planet.



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Reply How Low Can America's Birth Rate Go Before It's A Problem? (Original post)
Coventina Jun 14 OP
MarineCombatEngineer Jun 14 #1
lagomorph777 Jun 14 #20
PortTack Jun 14 #2
Justice matters. Jun 14 #5
Orangepeel Jun 14 #3
Renew Deal Jun 14 #4
Justice matters. Jun 14 #6
Renew Deal Jun 14 #7
lagomorph777 Jun 14 #23
Coventina Jun 14 #10
Klaralven Jun 14 #34
gratuitous Jun 14 #8
Klaralven Jun 14 #9
Coventina Jun 14 #32
Klaralven Jun 14 #33
Throck Jun 14 #11
Scrivener7 Jun 14 #12
Kaleva Jun 14 #15
Scrivener7 Jun 14 #16
Kaleva Jun 14 #26
LineLineLineLineLineNew Reply .
Scrivener7 Jun 14 #31
Hugh_Lebowski Jun 14 #17
Scrivener7 Jun 14 #18
secondwind Jun 14 #13
Kaleva Jun 14 #14
Hugh_Lebowski Jun 14 #19
Kaleva Jun 14 #27
Hugh_Lebowski Jun 14 #28
Kaleva Jun 14 #30
Bayard Jun 14 #21
roamer65 Jun 14 #22
liberaltrucker Jun 14 #24
Coventina Jun 14 #25
KG Jun 14 #29

Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:27 PM

1. Here's my take on this,

POC birth rates falling? No problem with white supremacists.
White birth rates falling? Big problem with white supremacists.

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Response to MarineCombatEngineer (Reply #1)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:27 PM

20. Exactly. If only white people count, then you might not notice the world population is

exploding.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:30 PM

2. Agree totally with your last sentence!

As a nation we will have to become more immigrant friendly.

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Response to PortTack (Reply #2)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:39 PM

5. Like it's always been the case since... the 17th-18th-19th-20th Century.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:31 PM

3. gee, if only there were some other way to increase the number of young Americans!

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:38 PM

4. I'd like Dr. Murray to show me one bit of research indicating that humans will go extinct

from low birth rates.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #4)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:42 PM

6. We may go extinct faster...

from climate change, overpopulation in poorer countries, third-world war (nukes), et al.

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Response to Justice matters. (Reply #6)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:46 PM

7. We may

And I think that is more likely. There aren't low birth rates everywhere.

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Response to Justice matters. (Reply #6)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:28 PM

23. We are more likely to go extinct from overpopulation than underpopulation.

I completely agree. It causes numerous serious problems. War, famine, climate change, poisoned environment...

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #4)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:51 PM

10. IKR?

People still have the evolutionary urge to procreate, that's not going away.

People are discouraged from procreating due to other, outside factors. There will always be some that will follow their biological instincts. Not saying that is good or bad, it's just how evolution has programmed us.

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Response to Coventina (Reply #10)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 05:37 PM

34. People have the evolutionary urge to have sex.

The urge to procreate is far less strong, especially among women when they have a choice to limit procreation.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:47 PM

8. Since we're overloading the planet at this point

In a perfect world, we could sustain 10 billion humans or more on the planet. But this isn't a perfect world. We've fucked things up badly, and while I don't think we've gotten to an extinction level with our poor choices, we've consigned several hundred million, if not a couple billion, people to a very tough life and early death. Humans all over the world have learned to mistrust each other when it comes to voluntary limits on our population. That leaves less friendly options - war, famine, disease - an open invitation to cut our numbers. We'd do the planet and ourselves an enormous favor by cutting our global population down to 4.5 or 5 billion, and learning more sustainable living practices.

But somewhere along the way, we all decided (or it was decided for us) that a certain small percentage of the population needed to be richer than the rest of the world put together, and in service of that tiny minority the rest of us can live lives that are unnecessarily nasty, brutish, and short.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:51 PM

9. At the beginning of WW II, the population was about 40% of what is is currently

I wouldn't worry until we get back below that.

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Response to Klaralven (Reply #9)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 05:28 PM

32. Good point. I wouldn't even worry until we were back at the level of the so-called "Axis Age"

c. 700-500 BCE.

Heck, I probably would never worry, actually.

But, if we did drop to 150 million, I would start to believe in the possibility of us going extinct.

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Response to Coventina (Reply #32)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 05:33 PM

33. I think that a global population of about 200 million would be a good thing

100 million in 100 cities of about 1 million each located in areas where they can be supported by nearby arable lands, good water supplies, and easy communications and transportation.

The other 100 million distributed in small cities and rural areas performing the necessary work in agriculture, fisheries, forestry, mining, heavy industry, and so forth.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 02:57 PM

11. How do we get the rest of the world to slow down?

Give planet Earth a break.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:00 PM

12. The conservative interviewed in this is literally saying that we should have lots of children

to keep housing prices up.

Those people are just insane.

The lower the birth rate the better. We devastate the earth. There should be fewer of us.

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Response to Scrivener7 (Reply #12)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:13 PM

15. Earth desn't care about us or any other living thing

In the Universe, life is an abnomality

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Response to Kaleva (Reply #15)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:13 PM

16. Maybe not, but we better damn well care about earth.

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Response to Scrivener7 (Reply #16)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 04:04 PM

26. To what end? We have no power to control plate activity


And an expanding sun will incinerate Earth

The only purpose would be to ensure our survival long enough to acquire the technology to enable us to travel to other planets and colonize them.

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Response to Kaleva (Reply #26)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 04:25 PM

31. .

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Response to Scrivener7 (Reply #12)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:14 PM

17. Hear! Hear!

Couldn't agree more.

It's also amusing that the (admittedly wacky) idea of building fewer NEW houses to compensate ... doesn't even cross his mind.

Neither does increasing immigration.

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Response to Hugh_Lebowski (Reply #17)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:18 PM

18. Increasing immigration!! Hush your mouth!!! His mama would disown him for saying

something like that!

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:07 PM

13. I suspect that if we stay out of wars, etc......

This will not be a huge problem.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:08 PM

14. The rest of the planet is doomed regardless if humans are present

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Response to Kaleva (Reply #14)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:21 PM

19. A great many of the species that live on it, at least ... Earth itself will be fine (nt)

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Response to Hugh_Lebowski (Reply #19)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 04:06 PM

27. They will all go extinct even if humans never existed

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Response to Kaleva (Reply #27)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 04:08 PM

28. So your point was "all species are eventually doomed no matter what people do or have done?"

Because that hardly seems worth pointing out in the context.

It also implies we should just say fuck the earth and do whatever we want cause it doesn't matter in the end.

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Response to Hugh_Lebowski (Reply #28)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 04:21 PM

30. It matters as long as we can leave this planet

And take other species with us

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:27 PM

21. I doubt the last of humankind will be worried about home sales

Was there realtor input to this article?

End war, end cancer, end mass shootings, and rein in pandemics. I think the planet wouldn't agree, however.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:27 PM

22. The birth rate needs to drop even further worldwide.

For everyone to have a European standard of living, the population needs to drop to around 2 billion.

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:39 PM

24. I did my part to ensure the extinction of the species

As far as I know, that is.

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Response to liberaltrucker (Reply #24)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 03:45 PM

25. Did you maybe slip one past the goalie?

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Response to Coventina (Original post)

Mon Jun 14, 2021, 04:12 PM

29. with growing automation & other factors, there's going to be fewer jobs in the future

a falling population is going to be practical, here & elesewhere.

also, fuck the real estate industry / scam

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