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Wed May 19, 2021, 03:22 AM

In 10 Years A Gas Powered Car Will Make As Much Sense As A Horse Drawn Carriage

And in 5 years they will have batteries that are just insane. An iPhone that charges in 10 seconds. Car batteries 7 times more powerful than what we have now. Those may take a little longer, but I have read about a few new technologies. Silica, and aluminum etc.

We don't need no stinkin' oil.

Or war for oil.

Or Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, or Venezuela scum getting rich off our oil addiction.

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Reply In 10 Years A Gas Powered Car Will Make As Much Sense As A Horse Drawn Carriage (Original post)
DanieRains May 2021 OP
multigraincracker May 2021 #1
Buckeyeblue May 2021 #7
jimfields33 May 2021 #10
JanMichael May 2021 #13
cinematicdiversions May 2021 #43
jimfields33 May 2021 #44
Blanks May 2021 #96
cinematicdiversions May 2021 #102
Blanks May 2021 #105
csziggy May 2021 #49
Voltaire2 May 2021 #54
SunSeeker May 2021 #2
Klaralven May 2021 #14
USALiberal May 2021 #17
Klaralven May 2021 #20
SunSeeker May 2021 #53
csziggy May 2021 #50
SunSeeker May 2021 #59
csziggy May 2021 #61
SunSeeker May 2021 #85
Voltaire2 May 2021 #55
SunSeeker May 2021 #58
tinrobot May 2021 #71
SunSeeker May 2021 #80
tinrobot May 2021 #81
SunSeeker May 2021 #83
tinrobot May 2021 #69
SunSeeker May 2021 #84
JCMach1 May 2021 #86
SunSeeker May 2021 #89
ZonkerHarris May 2021 #3
Raine May 2021 #4
Sherman A1 May 2021 #5
Buckeyeblue May 2021 #8
Sherman A1 May 2021 #16
LanternWaste May 2021 #76
Jon King May 2021 #6
Sgent May 2021 #26
Celerity May 2021 #9
jimfields33 May 2021 #46
tinrobot May 2021 #70
Captain Zero May 2021 #11
fescuerescue May 2021 #28
DFW May 2021 #12
Wounded Bear May 2021 #40
GoneOffShore May 2021 #90
DFW May 2021 #91
GoneOffShore May 2021 #92
JohnSJ May 2021 #15
MissB May 2021 #24
JohnSJ May 2021 #31
Voltaire2 May 2021 #57
tinrobot May 2021 #72
ProfessorGAC May 2021 #18
brooklynite May 2021 #19
Klaralven May 2021 #21
ProfessorGAC May 2021 #51
totodeinhere May 2021 #22
JohnSJ May 2021 #34
totodeinhere May 2021 #75
JohnSJ May 2021 #79
SKKY May 2021 #23
Marrah_Goodman May 2021 #63
SKKY May 2021 #93
Marrah_Goodman May 2021 #98
USALiberal May 2021 #25
fescuerescue May 2021 #27
Towlie May 2021 #29
Oneironaut May 2021 #99
bullwinkle428 May 2021 #30
dalton99a May 2021 #36
dalton99a May 2021 #32
BSdetect May 2021 #33
JohnSJ May 2021 #37
Shanti Shanti Shanti May 2021 #35
JohnSJ May 2021 #38
tinrobot May 2021 #73
lame54 May 2021 #78
bello May 2021 #39
Silent3 May 2021 #41
Shellback Squid May 2021 #42
Polybius May 2021 #45
LiberatedUSA May 2021 #47
Zeitghost May 2021 #48
hardluck May 2021 #52
tinrobot May 2021 #74
MineralMan May 2021 #56
Jose Garcia May 2021 #60
Voltaire2 May 2021 #66
fescuerescue May 2021 #94
Voltaire2 May 2021 #107
joshcryer May 2021 #106
Marrah_Goodman May 2021 #62
JCMach1 May 2021 #87
Marrah_Goodman May 2021 #100
Paladin May 2021 #64
Mr.Bill May 2021 #82
Elessar Zappa May 2021 #103
iemanja May 2021 #65
ansible May 2021 #67
JCMach1 May 2021 #88
fescuerescue May 2021 #95
JCMach1 May 2021 #97
lpbk2713 May 2021 #68
lame54 May 2021 #77
Niagara May 2021 #101
Mr.Bill May 2021 #104

Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:26 AM

1. Horse drawn carriages are still on the road.

They never really went away. I live near Amish Country.

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Response to multigraincracker (Reply #1)

Wed May 19, 2021, 06:22 AM

7. Yes. And they make no sense.

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Response to Buckeyeblue (Reply #7)

Wed May 19, 2021, 06:59 AM

10. Zero emissions. They certainly are better for the environment.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #10)

Wed May 19, 2021, 07:16 AM

13. Zero emissions? That's not entirely true. Not as bad as cows but they still shit and piss.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #10)

Wed May 19, 2021, 11:40 AM

43. I have had horses

They definitely pollute more than a modern car.

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Response to cinematicdiversions (Reply #43)

Wed May 19, 2021, 11:42 AM

44. Damn. Never would have guessed that.

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Response to cinematicdiversions (Reply #43)

Thu May 20, 2021, 08:21 AM

96. Depends on your definition of pollute...

I have horses. Yes, they shit, but horse manure is a really good fertilizer. They also eat grass, they’re better for the planet than lawn mowers. As a means of transportation, they can’t compete with cars, but the potential to provide a benefit to modern society is still there. Sadly, we’ve kind of crowded them out of a lot of places.

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Response to Blanks (Reply #96)

Thu May 20, 2021, 04:01 PM

102. As a one off they are fine.

But imagine replacing all the cars with horses. It would not be an environmental win me thinks.

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Response to cinematicdiversions (Reply #102)

Thu May 20, 2021, 08:35 PM

105. Replacing horses with cars wouldn't work well at all...

That doesn’t mean they aren’t an important species. I like having them in my yard, they cost less to keep than a new car payment and full coverage insurance, but I work from home, they get out, run the neighborhood, that wouldn’t work if I was away at the office all day.

You can’t even replace a lawn mower completely with them, but they will reduce the number of times you have to mow and the grass is really green year round. Much greener than lawns that are mowed all the time.

They aren’t a reliable means of transportation on highways, they’re not even allowed.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #10)

Wed May 19, 2021, 12:28 PM

49. Before horses were replaced by cars, there were serious problems with manure and flies

The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894
by Ben Johnson

By the late 1800s, large cities all around the world were “drowning in horse manure”. In order for these cities to function, they were dependent on thousands of horses for the transport of both people and goods.

In 1900, there were over 11,000 hansom cabs on the streets of London alone. There were also several thousand horse-drawn buses, each needing 12 horses per day, making a staggering total of over 50,000 horses transporting people around the city each day.

{SNIP}

This huge number of horses created major problems. The main concern was the large amount of manure left behind on the streets. On average a horse will produce between 15 and 35 pounds of manure per day, so you can imagine the sheer scale of the problem. The manure on London’s streets also attracted huge numbers of flies which then spread typhoid fever and other diseases.

Each horse also produced around 2 pints of urine per day and to make things worse, the average life expectancy for a working horse was only around 3 years. Horse carcasses therefore also had to be removed from the streets. The bodies were often left to putrefy so the corpses could be more easily sawn into pieces for removal.

More: https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #10)

Wed May 19, 2021, 02:48 PM

54. ever wonder why city dwellers up until the 1920's wore boots almost all the time?

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:40 AM

2. Speaking from experience, our infrastructure is not there yet for all electric cars.

That is why a good plug-in hybrid like the RAV4 Prime is garnering $10k above sticker, if you can find one on dealer lots. People want electic, but need a gas engine too. A plug-in hybrid gives you the best of both worlds: it drives like an EV around town for 40 miles or so. But if you have to hit the highway for a long jaunt or road trip, you have the hybrid engine to rely on, so that you're not tied to your home charging station.

EV charging times are still way too long to be practical. Most take many hours to charge the battery, usually overnight. Charging stations are unreliable, often out of order, and are run by a hodgepodge of entities, each requiring you to get their own charge cards that only work at their particular stations, with customer service so bad it makes the cable companies look good. I have an electric car (Chevy Bolt) and the range anxiety sucks. I have to rent a gas car every rime I want to go on a road trip, or more than 75 miles from home. After 2 years of this torture, I'm done. I plan to get a RAV4 Prime as my next car....if I can find one.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #2)

Wed May 19, 2021, 07:29 AM

14. You can drive on electric when there's no gas; on gas when the electricity is out

In 10 years outages of gas and electric will be very frequent.

Disruptions in supplies are increasing faster than battery capacity.

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Response to Klaralven (Reply #14)

Wed May 19, 2021, 07:56 AM

17. Link to proof of gas outages please. nt

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Response to USALiberal (Reply #17)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:05 AM

20. Most NC gas stations still out of fuel. But state is making progress, analyst says.

Although more than half of North Carolina’s gas stations remain out of fuel, an industry analyst reported Sunday that the state appears to be at the “epicenter of restoration efforts” following a ransomware attack that crippled a major southeastern U.S. pipeline.


https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article251453633.html

There are also episodes of gas outages after hurricanes and other natural disasters. Of course, some of those also disrupt electricity.

But generally, the reliability of both the supply of electricity and gasoline appear to be decreasing rapidly.

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Response to Klaralven (Reply #14)

Wed May 19, 2021, 02:45 PM

53. Exactly. If you only have one car, you need the versatility of a PHEV.

My beach town here in Southern California has power outages several times a year, sometimes for days at a time, when one of our aging transformers blows. It happens so often we bought a generator to power our fridge when the power is out.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #2)

Wed May 19, 2021, 12:38 PM

50. My husband drives a Toyota Prius V

Which Toyota abandoned to push the RAV4. We both prefer the smaller Prius V. The RAV is larger than we need and harder to park and not as efficient. (If we need a larger SUV, we have our 1999 GMC Suburban - absolutely not gas efficient (at 13 mpg) but we seldom need it any more, so mostly it just sits.)

While we really like the hybrid, I worry about the longevity of the batteries. We had a 2006 Prius and replaced the batteries three times - refurbished batteries packs in which single cells would go bad. After the third replacement, when the batteries went bad, it fried the computer. It would have cost significantly more than the car was worth to replace the computer and the batteries, so when a mechanic at the dealer's offered to buy it, we sold it.

A friend has had the same problem with his Prius V - buying refurbish battery packs that went bad. In his case, the company that was supplying the battery packs was shut down by the state for deceptive practices.

The most recent car I bought was a Honda Fit - smaller than the Prius V, all gas but gets the same mileage. For now, until the batteries improve, I will stick with an ultra efficient gas vehicle.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #50)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:03 PM

59. Yes, refurbished batteries are a rip off, they rarely last more than few years.

New batteries are terribly expensive, but the only way to go if you want to keep the car.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #59)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:06 PM

61. Yes, we've already made the decision to buy from Toyota

When the batteries wear out in the Prius V. My husband loves that car and since we can't get another one, we'll keep it on the road as long as possible.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #61)

Thu May 20, 2021, 02:14 AM

85. Best car I ever had was a 2005 Pontiac Vibe (a Toyota Matrix with Pontiac stickers).

I put 256,000 miles on that peppy little thing and it just kept going, until my 17 year old totaled it.

Toyota knows how to build reliable cars. Chevy sure as hell doesn't. My 2019 Chevy Bolt only has 20,000 miles, and during that time the front suspension had to be replaced, the rear axle had to be replaced, and the EV battery had a recall over fires during charging. Chevy can't even make a reliable EV, even though EVs are innately reliable, simple power trains. I never had to replace the suspension or rear axle (or even the transmission!) on my Vibe/Matrix during the 256k miles that I had it.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #2)

Wed May 19, 2021, 02:50 PM

55. Depends on your EV

Tesla charging network is extensive and fast and you can get just about anywhere in the US.

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Response to Voltaire2 (Reply #55)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:01 PM

58. I like to go hiking. There's no Tesla superchargers near the trailheads where I go.

They're really only at major thoroughfares, not in every other corner as well as in the boonies like gas stations. Also, we get power outages in my neighborhood all the time. You can't be sure your car will be charged when you get up in the morning. I tried to make it work, but even in Southern California where we have the most charging stations in the country, you can't rely on them working or not already having a car charging there. It makes road trips a crap shoot. That's why I'm getting a PHEV when my Bolt lease runs out in a year.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #58)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:44 PM

71. That's a valid concern

The boonies are still pretty thin on charging. I take a portable level 2 charger with an RV (NEMA) plug and plug in at RV parks if needed. I usually don't need it, but when I do, I just put in enough to get back out and to a normal fast charger.

Rivian is starting up an adventure charging network. They're starting in Colorado by putting in Level 2 at all the major trailheads. They're also installing fast chargers for their own vehicles. If you're going on a hike, plug in at the trailhead and go hike. You'll have enough to get out when you return in a few hours.

So, yes, there are still growing pains, but they are being addressed. In 3-5 years, it's not going to be much of an issue.

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Response to tinrobot (Reply #71)

Wed May 19, 2021, 06:53 PM

80. I will happily get all-electric when the infrastructure is there.

Until then, it'll be a PHEV.

Glad to hear Rivian is putting in fast chargers, but why can't these fucking car manufacturers drop the territorialism and make the plugs and chargers universal? Why is Rivian using a different plug than Tesla? And why is Tesla using a different plug than Chevrolet? So fucking frustrating. Every gasoline pump fits in every gasoline car's filler opening. Why can't the same hold true for electric chargers and electric cars?

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #80)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:51 PM

81. Rivian uses standard connectors.

They use the same connectors as your Bolt and every other US car. Tesla is the only one using their own standard.

The Rivian-only fast chargers are simply software-locked to their cars. They can be opened to other vehicles later if it makes sense for them. It's more of a sales/marketing decision than anything.

The Rivian level 2 chargers will be open to anyone.

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Response to tinrobot (Reply #81)

Thu May 20, 2021, 12:09 AM

83. There are no "standard connectors."

There are a ridiculous 9 different types of EV plugs. https://evcharging.enelx.com/resources/blog/552-ev-charging-connector-types

Why? Same reason Rivian won't let others use their plugs: "sales/marketing." In other words, short-sighted greed.

These idiots need to all get together and make the plugs and chargers universal. Otherwise, they're going to continue to lose people like me.

If EV companies can't put planet over money, who can?

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #2)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:33 PM

69. Your Bolt is one of the slowest charging EVs out there.

The slower 50kw fast charge rate means you'll be spending a lot longer than most at the charger on road trips.

Newer EVs charge approx 3-5 times faster. That's the difference between a 15-20 min charging stop vs a 60+ min stop for the Bolt.

I looked at the RAV4 Prime, but went with the VW ID.4 all-electric instead. Brilliant car, charges quickly, and has been great so far on road trips.

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Response to tinrobot (Reply #69)

Thu May 20, 2021, 12:39 AM

84. Wrong. My 2019 Bolt has DC fast charging. But fast chargers are few and far between.

While it takes about nine hours to fully charge my Bolt's 238-mile range battery using a 240-volt outlet (what I have at home), the fast-charging option my car has can add roughly 90 miles of range every 30 minutes—provided a Level 3 charging station is available and working where I'm going. In my 2 years of experience with my Bolt so far, it never is. Either there were no fast chargers where I was going, or if there were, they were not working, or already had cars parked at them.

The 2021 VW ID.4 does not have substantially better specs than my 2019 Bolt.

Here’s how fast each type can juice the ID.4 up to its 250-mile range:

Level 1 (120V outlet) – 0-100% estimated 50 hours
Level 2 (240V outlet) – 0-100% EPA-estimated 7.5 hours
Level 3 (DC fast charging) – 0-80% EPA-estimated at 38 minutes

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34114103/2021-vw-id4-revealed/

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #84)

Thu May 20, 2021, 02:21 AM

86. Why PHEVs should make a comeback

Very few people commute outside of my Volt's range. If I need to go further, I just drive on gas like a hybrid. Easy peasy.

I still use electric about 98% of the time.

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #86)

Thu May 20, 2021, 03:36 AM

89. The Volt is a great car. Chevy should bring it back. nt

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 04:05 AM

3. When we went to NYC a few years ago my wife wanted to ride a Horse Drawn Carriage

through Central Park.
I'm originally from the area and was like "That's for tourists"
She was like "thats what we are"
I guess I am now, I thought to myself.
It was a lovely ride and time
I'd do it again if we went back

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 04:30 AM

4. EXACTLY! nt

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 05:06 AM

5. The time will come

But I suspect it will be longer than the 10 years you suggest.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #5)

Wed May 19, 2021, 06:37 AM

8. A great deal can change in 10 years

The question is, will it? I think we'll see some hybrid technology that really blows the doors off MPGs that we currently see. And we'll see continual improvement of EV technology. Gas stations will lead the way to effective charging stations.

Things have changed a great deal in the last 10 years. I would expect that they will continue.

Not all good. Technology has given a boost to White Nationalists. They've been able to organize and grow like never before.

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Response to Buckeyeblue (Reply #8)

Wed May 19, 2021, 07:48 AM

16. I don't disagree that much can and has changed in a decade

I just don’t see internal combustion engines all gone in the next ten years.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #5)

Wed May 19, 2021, 05:39 PM

76. In '79, I thought the same about home PCs

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 06:04 AM

6. Yeah, still gonna need oil...

No such thing as a electric jumbo jet, so need oil for that. Cargo ships....ain't gonna be electric. Need to generate all the electricity to charge the electric cars, so need oil for a good portion of that. Many houses need oil for heat. Most personal care products have petroleum based ingredients. Petroleum based products are in almost everything we use today.....plastics, clothing fibers, and on and on. Poor people in the city who use one $500 clunker after another to get to work? How will they afford their electric car? Where will they charge it within 10 years?

Also, what do you propose the millions and millions of regular people who live in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela do to survive with no petroleum revenue?

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Response to Jon King (Reply #6)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:51 AM

26. For the uS

30% of our oil usage (and even more emissions) is gasoline. When autos start to transition it will make everything crash so those areas that rely on gas extraction better be working out their problems now or see WV.

Also, in the US oil based fuels are not commonly used for electric generation on a utility wide scale.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 06:41 AM

9. petrol cars are going to be a HUGE battleground for U.S. RWers by the 2030's and 2040's

I guarantee they will try and force their continued production as the rest of the advanced world assigns them to the dustbin of history. I think as the 2030's and 2040's roll by the US will become a global renegade pariah state in terms of AGW and carbon fuel use. It is going to be, in a way, like guns, until the US shuts down all the petrol stations. How else do you stop tens upon tens of millions of 'gas guzzle and pollute TILL I DIE to own the libs' lunatics? They will bitterly cling to the petrol fuelled cars even though no new ones are being made (unless the RW somehow forces their production).

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Response to Celerity (Reply #9)

Wed May 19, 2021, 11:47 AM

46. I think it will be like the light bulb

The yelling that life was over ended when everyone saw how great LEDs were. Same with electric cars. It will cause some noise until everyone sees how great they are. Nobody particularly likes change. But once initial apprehension is over, it becomes mainstream.

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Response to Celerity (Reply #9)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:38 PM

70. But will the demand be there?

If you can get an electric F150 that is twice as fast and costs a third as much to operate, why would you stick with gas?

Perhaps demand will be driven by the same people who hang on to their 1970's classics, but they are a small minority. Most people just want a car that is capable and easy to use.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 07:14 AM

11. Think of the money we will save on bombers

Not needing to bomb the oil-rich into submission.

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Response to Captain Zero (Reply #11)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:57 AM

28. They will be just redirected to rare-mineral countries

that have Cobalt etc.

Which happens to be some of the same countries that have oil.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 07:15 AM

12. In May of 2008, I saw my first "smart phone"

Nowadays, we don't own them. They own us.

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Response to DFW (Reply #12)

Wed May 19, 2021, 10:31 AM

40. Nice graphic...

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Response to DFW (Reply #12)

Thu May 20, 2021, 04:00 AM

90. Have you watched The Mitchell Family vs The Machines?

Funny and scary at the same time.



Trailer -

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Response to GoneOffShore (Reply #90)

Thu May 20, 2021, 04:10 AM

91. Never heard of it

But from the trailer, it looks to be exactly what you described.

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Response to DFW (Reply #91)

Thu May 20, 2021, 04:29 AM

92. It's also fun.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 07:41 AM

15. Are batteries really the answer long term? How long does it take to charge the batteries?

How long will the batteries last before they degrade to such a degree that they need to be replaced? How easy is it to recycle spent batteries?

I believe the Tesla takes about 20 minutes to recharge using dc fast. How many recharge stations will be necessary to support a complete transition to electric?

The electricity to support the electric vehicles needs to be generated somehow. What will that source be.

ICE vehicles will be around for some time.

Personally, I think electric cars will end up to be a transitional vehicle. Hydrogen fuel cell cars or something like that will probably be the better model. I would think a national mass transit system also should be a worthy goal





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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #15)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:34 AM

24. I can plug mine in to a standard outlet

I have a house, so I can install a level 2 charger (6-8 hours of charge time). I haven’t done so yet as the charge station manufacturer hasn’t delivered it (came free with my car). They’re back ordered at least another month.

In the meantime, I’ll have a 220 outlet wired in, but like many trades these days an electrician is unavailable until mid June.

While waiting for one of the above, I can simply plug my car into a standard outlet. It takes a long time to charge, but it’s already a habit to pull into the garage, get out and plug the car in before going into the house. Driving around town doesn’t use much charge so gaining a percent or two of charge via a standard plug in an hour or two doesn’t matter.

The car’s battery is under an 8-year warranty, so I expect that’s about the useful life. I live in a state with hydroelectric and wind generation, and plenty of each. Electricity is cheap and the huge river isn’t drying up anytime soon. I’m guessing the gorge will still have plenty of wind.

If everyone switched over to electric this year then there would be huge infrastructure problems. But that’s not happening, even with the $10k between federal and state tax credits. I don’t think everyone is going to make that shift- cars are still expensive and folks in apartments are going to be left out of this option. Gas powered cars will be with us for a long time. I still have one of those too and probably will for a long time.

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Response to MissB (Reply #24)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:22 AM

31. I have a plug in Honda clarity where I can go 40 to 60 miles on pure battery before it switches

to the ICE. I would not feel comfortable going long distance with an all electric car at this time for multiple reasons.

When I am driving locally I have no need for gasoline, and could drive months on all electric.

I believe the Tesla warranty is 50000 miles or 8 years on the battery. A lot of people keep their cars 10 years or longer, so I would hope the battery would be viable for at least 10 year and 100000 miles, otherwise I think it will be cost prohibitive.

While I agree with your first hand experience and insights, I am skeptical that 10 years is realistic goal to stop all ICE production.

Also, I have questions if the batteries are recyclable, and what is the source of how the electricity for the charging infrastructure will be generated

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #15)

Wed May 19, 2021, 02:52 PM

57. Level 3 Superchargers can take a Tesla from 0-170 miles range in just 30 minutes. nt.

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #15)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:55 PM

72. Batteries are going to win over hydrogen (for consumers at least)

With hydrogen, you'd still need to go to the equivalent of a gas station to refuel. Those stations are expensive, and unless there's huge public investment, not economically feasible. The few hydrogen cars here in California have a handful of refuel stations in the cities. There's nothing outside the cities, so road trips are impossible.

With batteries, the infrastructure has been in place for a century. They're called wall outlets, and every building already has them. You can plug in at home, work, wherever. The convenience of leaving the house every day with a full "tank" is liberating.

Outside the home, you can use fast charging to get range quickly. Here in Los Angeles, there's fast chargers at every city owned lot, every Walmart, some gas stations, and gobs of other places. We already have the US interstates covered coast to coast in fast chargers, so you could do road trips as well. Still, there's a lot of infill that needs to happen, but the snowball is already rolling. No way hydrogen can catch up at this point.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 07:56 AM

18. I Would Have Agreed With Nearly All...

...if you had said 25 years.
There are people right now with brand new cars.
In 10 years these will be cars with 130,000 miles on them, and if the original owner doesn't still drive it, somebody will be.
So in 10 years, it will still make sense to own a gas powered car.
But, after a couple of car generations, I think you're right.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #18)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:04 AM

19. I bought a new car last August. The previous car lasted 17 years.

(and my niece is still driving it).

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #18)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:10 AM

21. Average Age of Vehicles on the Road is Approaching 12 Years

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a33457915/average-age-vehicles-on-road-12-years

The only caveat is that with the amount of electronics in new cars, they may not be repairable in a decade or two due to the unavailability of the types of chips currently being used.

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Response to Klaralven (Reply #21)

Wed May 19, 2021, 01:33 PM

51. And, That's The Average

Since the age of some cars is zero, there has to be loads of cars much greater than 10 years old to offset. So, I think the 10 years in the OP is too short.
I'm not convinced on chip replacement in 10 years, though.
There's a low inventory carrying cost on things like that. (They take up very little space, unused they have an indefinite shelf life, and initial cost is not high for a capital intensive operation like auto manufacture.)
Now, if we're talking about my "almost classic" Sebring convertible (1998 with 33,000 miles) and we go 10 years out, I'm sure you're correct.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:14 AM

22. Energy is energy. It takes as much energy to move an automobile whether it is powered by

a petroleum product or whether it is powered by batteries. An electric car will put out much less emissions but they won't be a cure all because producing their batteries will take energy and potentially cause emissions to our atmosphere..

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #22)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:32 AM

34. In addition, the recharging stations have to have their electricity produced from some source

You could potentially move toward alternative energy sources to produce the electricity for charging those vehicles, but that will require changes from the way it is generated now, and that takes time to build also

Another question what is the process for recycling the batteries? Does that use energy for the recycling?

I would like to think we also could build our mass transit system nationally like we did the interstate highway system, and I would like to see other avenues explored like hydrogen fuel cells



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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #34)

Wed May 19, 2021, 05:27 PM

75. Good points that I left out. Thank you. n/t

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #75)

Wed May 19, 2021, 06:48 PM

79. I suspect ect there will be multiple solutions, and it will be interesting to see what dominates

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:17 AM

23. I have a 2012 Jeep Grand Cherokee with 92,000 miles on it....

...I intend to drive it until the wheels fall off, and then purchase an electric car. I fully expect my options for a car with an internal combustion engine to be few, and far between. And I'm perfectly fine with that.

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Response to SKKY (Reply #23)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:09 PM

63. I have a 2003 ford focus wagon with 63000 miles on it

I am hoping it lasts me another 17 years.

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Response to Marrah_Goodman (Reply #63)

Thu May 20, 2021, 08:05 AM

93. Only 63K?? That's amazing.

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Response to SKKY (Reply #93)

Thu May 20, 2021, 11:49 AM

98. yup, had 55 when I bought it last year.

Needed to replace some things due to age, but other then that I am hoping it lasts me a long time.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:37 AM

25. Maybe 30 years! Nt

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 08:55 AM

27. That day is coming but it's a lot further than 10 years

We don't yet even make electric vehicles that can replace all gas powered ones today.

We have a pickup truck from one or two manufacturers promised. Those are still years out.

It'll take 15 years of full on production to just to replace the current fleet.

You are right. It's just that 10 years is crazy fast.

Closer to 30.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:08 AM

29. In 10 years we will be exploring the galaxy in FTL starships and traveling backward in time.

 


... and in ten years nobody will recall that I made these predictions and call me out for being wrong.

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Response to Towlie (Reply #29)

Thu May 20, 2021, 11:56 AM

99. Here's a time travel paradox -

If time travelers were to go back in time and give ancient civilizations the ability to create time machines, and going with the belief that there is only one timeline, why is all technology not understood instantly?

Example - Someone from the year 5000 comes back to our present day and teaches us all of the technological advancements they’ve learned in the future 3000 years ahead. This allows us to build a time machine, and then go back to the year 50 AD and give them all of our knowledge. Then, those people can go back to year 500 BC, and so on.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:17 AM

30. Five years ago, there were people saying nearly all truck drivers

in America would be out of a job within a very short time frame, as the result of self-driving trucks. Fast forward to today, and there are more openings for truck drivers than ever before.

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Response to bullwinkle428 (Reply #30)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:40 AM

36. Also, diesel mechanics ought to start looking for new jobs

because Tesla was working on an electric semi

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:26 AM

32. What we need is aerial sedans to save wear and tear on the roadways

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:29 AM

33. Electric battery cars will dominate sales long before 10 years.

Technology is developing faster than most of us can appreciate.

BEVs are already cheaper than ICE vehicles when you factor in all costs such as maintenance.

With Tesla's FSD about to come in insurance costs will plunge too.

The staggering cost of accidents will fall gradually.

It's not just deaths but serious injuries and repairs.

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Response to BSdetect (Reply #33)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:42 AM

37. Not at current prices they won't, and not without a reliable infrastructure that can support

charging stations that don’t take hours to charge

As for the FSD, that is not ready for prime time yet.

Instead of more cars what we need is a national mass transit system

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:38 AM

35. LOL, I love how all bombastic future "predictions" are always only "10 years away"

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Response to Shanti Shanti Shanti (Reply #35)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:43 AM

38. It is like when you go to a crowded restaurant. They always say 20 mintutes for a table, when

it is more like an hour or more


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Response to Shanti Shanti Shanti (Reply #35)

Wed May 19, 2021, 04:04 PM

73. I've been driving electric for 10 years.

In retrospect, the amount of progress in the cars and the charging networks is astounding. And progress has been accelerating, particularly in the past 18-24 months.

The next 10 years will make gas cars look like 8-track tapes in terms of practicality. We're getting very close to a tipping point where EVs are easier/cheaper to use than gas cars. The will happen by 2025, and after that, gas cars will fade away very quickly.

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Response to Shanti Shanti Shanti (Reply #35)

Wed May 19, 2021, 05:57 PM

78. Trump's awesome health care is only 2 weeks away

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 10:24 AM

39. Well, I don't fit that profile very well.

While I plan on buying an EV in the near future, my buying habits don’t fit well with an all electric model within ten years.

I want an EV because our car is getting on the oldish side an EV would not only provide cheap transportation, it would function as a whole house battery if I also bought a smart vehicle-to-grid charger/controller.

Okay, I’m doing well so far, but...

I also buy a new truck once every 25 years, whether I need it or not. And I just bought a new internal combustion engine truck three years ago.

Sigh. At least I don’t drive the trucks many miles per year.

-B

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 10:41 AM

41. As long as gas has an energy density *100* times greater than batteries...

...there will be a place for gas powered vehicles. As long as we can make that a small niche the environmental impact we be small from keeping gas/diesel engines around.

Many military vehicles will remain gas for the foreseeable future, or a gas/electric hybrid. It's not like you can count on charging stations on a battlefield.

Serious "off-roading" will be better served by gas or gas/electric hybrids for some time.

In the many sparsely-populate areas of our country between the coasts (AKA “fly-over country”) charging stations might not reach practical availability for quite a while.

I think my own Chevy Volt is a great solution, and it's sad Chevy has discontinued it. I suppose that's a matter of cost. however, since the one vehicle has to be fully an electric car and a gas-powered car at the same time. I run electric around 95% of the time, but don't suffer from "range anxiety", because gas is always ready to kick in.

I went for a stretch of time using so little gas that I had to deliberately disable electric drive for a while to burn off the gas in my tank before it went stale, since I hadn't filled up in nearly a year.

One has to be cautious about viewing abundant "fast charging" stations as a complete solution for long-distance driving. "Fast" in this case is still slow compared to pumping gas, but more important, fast-charging is rough on the lifespan of battery packs. Without technical improvements in the current process, you wouldn't want fast-charging to be a routine part of your commute, or else you'll be needing expensive battery replacement sooner than you'd like.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 10:52 AM

42. you may be right, the transition to "smart" phones was very fast

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 11:46 AM

45. I'm bookmarking this

I call BS on 10 second iPhone charges in 5 years. But, I want to be wrong and will admit it if I am.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 11:48 AM

47. I have that exact thought.

I recently bought a new truck; I figure I will get about ten years out of it before I make the switch to electric. I want it more widespread first. California is certainly trying to help in that department.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 12:23 PM

48. Let me know

When California has a functioning power grid and rolling blackouts aren't a regular occurance in the summer.

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Response to Zeitghost (Reply #48)

Wed May 19, 2021, 02:22 PM

52. Exactly.

My power went down 8 times between Thanksgiving and MLK day each time for at least 1-2 days due to high winds. Fix that and then we can talk.

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Response to Zeitghost (Reply #48)

Wed May 19, 2021, 04:05 PM

74. Los Angeles reporting in - can't remember the last blackout.

I don't think we've ever had one.

But, yeah, it sucks to be a PG&E customer.

Oh, and with many EVs, you can use it as a power bank to get you through those damn blackouts.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 02:50 PM

56. No, not in 10 years. Maybe 20-30 years.

In 10 years, most cars on the road will still burn fossil fuel. In 20, maybe half will be electric. Maybe.

You're too optimistic, I think, timing-wise.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:05 PM

60. 60% of the electricity in the US is generated by from fossil fuels

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Response to Jose Garcia (Reply #60)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:15 PM

66. yeah that has to change.

But did you have a point?

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Response to Voltaire2 (Reply #66)

Thu May 20, 2021, 08:15 AM

94. It was pretty clear to me

It's going to a long time to tear down 241 coal plants, and replace them with something new.

Then it takes about 15 years to put up a new plant. Plus we need to massively increase the number of power plants.

That's a lot of work in 10 years.

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Response to fescuerescue (Reply #94)

Fri May 21, 2021, 12:08 PM

107. more importantly new power generation has to be green

The coal plants will phase out over time, but it would be a complete disaster if the increased demand from EVs is met by building new fossil fuel plants.

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Response to Jose Garcia (Reply #60)

Thu May 20, 2021, 08:44 PM

106. It requires 8 kWh to refine one gallon of gasoline.

Enough energy to drive 32 miles with an electric vehicle.

Remove the energy consumed by merely refining the gasoline, put it back into the system for electric vehicles, and you will be reducing the carbon output by half, even if you still produce electricity with fossil fuels.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:07 PM

62. Pretty sure I will never be able to afford an electric car in my lifetime

Heck, most days I wish I had a horse and carriage so I could leave the house even when I have no gas.

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Response to Marrah_Goodman (Reply #62)

Thu May 20, 2021, 02:26 AM

87. I paid 8K for my used Volt. Bolts are 25k and under used these days

If you want all electric. Even seen used used Teslas in the 20K range.

Price an ice full-sized truck these days!

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #87)

Thu May 20, 2021, 12:13 PM

100. When they have old used ones in the 2k range maybe then

I'm disabled and on a small fixed income. An electric car will most likely be out of the reach of poor people for a very long time.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:10 PM

64. If Ford's electric F-150 is a success, it's all over with.

Great feature on this on Rachel's show, last night.

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Response to Paladin (Reply #64)

Wed May 19, 2021, 09:37 PM

82. I bet that truck will cost over $75,000.

There will be a market for it, but it's not going to be the flagship of the American highway anytime soon.

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Response to Mr.Bill (Reply #82)

Thu May 20, 2021, 04:09 PM

103. Base model is $40,000.

That’s a damn good deal but still out of reach for many.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:11 PM

65. I'm still driving my 2007 car

Gas cars will be circulation for quite some time.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:15 PM

67. How do poor people who can only afford a $500 beater Honda Civic afford an electric car?

 

Nobody ever cares about this.

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Response to ansible (Reply #67)

Thu May 20, 2021, 02:29 AM

88. One of the hidden +'s of EVs is how little service and maintenance

You need.

That 500 beater will eat your lunch

Me, I change oil in my Volt about once a year just because and had one minor problem since 2011.

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #88)

Thu May 20, 2021, 08:16 AM

95. Are beater electric cars down to $500 now?

I honestly don't know.

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Response to fescuerescue (Reply #95)

Thu May 20, 2021, 11:48 AM

97. That $500 car doesn't exist any more... Check your local CLIST, or FB Marketplace

Inflation... that car is probably 1-3K now.

Older electrics tend to hold value because as long as they are running they are pretty much completely reliable. There is no in-between with electrics. Plus, the parts are worth more.

I have seen Nissan Leafs go as low as 2-3K

All car markets are not the same for electrics at moment. DFW is an electric MECCA. Teslas are everywhere here.

Florida, when I visit on the other hand, has very few.

This also affects pricing.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 03:18 PM

68. I'll buy an older car and install an eight track tape player.



It will be a conversation piece if nothing else.

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Wed May 19, 2021, 05:55 PM

77. Can't wait to take a Hyundai ride through Central Park

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Response to DanieRains (Original post)

Thu May 20, 2021, 01:05 PM

101. The 1st electric car was produced in 1891

In the early 1900's, the U.S. consumer had a choice from electric, gas-powered or steam vehicles. At that time, the highest selling vehicle was the gas powered vehicle. It seems that all the vehicle manufactures went towards with what the consumers wanted to buy.


I'm neither for or against electric vehicles, but we still have to be aware of the environmental damage from the production of electric vehicles as well. To believe that they're better for the environment at this time isn't true at all, each step into producing one has a negative impact on our environment. Perhaps as we make progress, it won't always be so.



This video was made a little over a year ago, it will explain the current environmental impact starting at the 1:33 mark.

&t=294s



I would be exciting to have the same exact car ride Jay Leno's 1909 Baker electric car. The car makes an appearance starting at the 3:00 mark.

&t=180s


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Response to Niagara (Reply #101)

Thu May 20, 2021, 04:24 PM

104. What we will drive in 10 or 20 years will be dictated

by the price and availability of whatever powers them. If 90% of gas stations disappear and gas is $20 a gallon, people will not want gas powered cars. If our power grid is decaying and blackouts are common and charging stations are scarce and costly to use, people will not want electric cars.

And all of those things can be manipulated by our government and our power companies. Our choice of transportation will not necessarily be what we want, but what is made most economical and available. Hopefully, it will be an improvement over what we have now, both economically and ecologically.

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