600,000

[Bucky]

A week from now we'll reach 600,000 deaths from Covid-19

100k - May 22 - 85 days
200K - Sep 13 - 114 days
300K - Dec 9 - 87 days
400K - Jan 13 - 35 days
500K - Feb 14 - 32 days
600K - May 16 - 91 days

[RockRaven]

1. And there is good reason to believe the real death toll is 50% higher...

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994287048/new-study-estimates-more-than-900-000-people-have-died-of-covid-19-in-u-s

[Bucky]

3. Interesting. I posted about the excess mortality above the covid numbers last week

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215392188

US mortality source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234

changes 2019 to 2020:

Heart disease: 659K to 691K
Cancer: 600K to 599K
Accidents: 173K to 192K
Strokes: 150K to 159K
Lower respiratory disease: 157K to 152K
Alzheimers: 121K to 133K
Diabetes: 88K to 101K
Flu & pneumonia: 50K to 53K
Kidney disease: 52K to 52K

I can see that heart disease, lower respiratory, Alzheimers, pneumonia, and flu deaths might be misdiagnosed. I'm not sure that'll get you to an additional 300,000 deaths. The number of lower respiratory disease deaths actually went down from 2019.

[Celerity]

4. that study is an extreme outlier and uses unsound methodologies that have been constantly exposed

The first OP on it here at DU was pulled down by the poster due to this.


https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215410853


https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215410853#post4

[Scrivener7]

11. OH MY GOD! It's IHME again! These are the guys who lowballed the numbers at the beginning

of last year so much that they were Donny Bodybags's favorite counter.

They are the ones who insisted for months that the death toll would not go over 60,000. Then when it did, they insisted for months it wouldn't go over 100K. They are the reason Donny Bodybags got away with the "It's no worse than the flu" crap for so long, and the reason why we didn't respond and therefore hundreds of thousands more died than should have.

Now they're saying the deaths are hugely higher than estimated.

IHME is CRAP! They just throw out crap numbers that make no sense! They are always wrong! Any other source, please!

[Bucky]

2. source

source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[YoshidaYui]

5. and i place most everyone of them on Trump

This was his doing, This is his thing, watching the world burn. Mitch McConnell as well.

[Bucky]

14. Yes, but that's not terribly helpful right now.

If Tom Dewey had won the 1944 election, I don't think we'd be talking about Dewey's war and Roosevelt's war. One thing about a democracy is that there's LOTS of blame to go around for poorly handled emergencies and lots of credit to share for the victories. I mean, if Hillary Clinton had been inaugurated in 2017, there'd still be six-digit death counts. There'd still be insane right wing theories about masks and virus origins and Fauci hating as well as anti-Asian hate crimes.

[YoshidaYui]

18. yes but

Asian hate crimes is not something my people could be blamed with.. again that's on Trump and the Republicans.

[Bucky]

19. You are more optimistic than I

[Sherman A1]

6. An article in the Atlantic pegged the number higher

At over 900k.

[Celerity]

7. see post 4

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215413395#post4

[malaise]

8. have you seen this?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215412608

[Bucky]

15. Upthread here there's some discussion about the accuracy of that study

To answer your question, no. I just saw the numbers today after questioning why people were still saying 500K. People are acting like it's almost over. The way we're going as a country, it's not.

[malaise]

16. Saw it

and am paying attention

[Blue Owl]

9. The MAGAts aren't drinking enough bleach. CHUG CHUG CHUG!

[img][/img]

[Takket]

12. Everyone seems to be missing the key number here

91 days.

Biden’s plan and the vaccine are working.

[Scrivener7]

13. Yes! That is great news.

[Bucky]

17. Yes, it's good that nationally we're down to losing about 700 lives daily

Predictions two months ago were that the mortality count would end south of 650,000 and that (in March) seemed pollyannish to me. These current rates give me a little more hope. But then again, we might be maxing out the number of people willing to be vaxxed--in which case there's still gonna be an infection rate (comparable to how we still have unacceptable unplanned pregnancy rates despite all the info and technology designed to prevent it, because bad instincts and ignorance always take their toll)

I don't expect the Covid daily number to keep falling forever, however. I fear it's going to bottom out at about 400-500 daily deaths and 30,000 daily new infections (it's currently at 42,000 new cases per day) and then we hit an equilibrium until a new surge in the late autumn, like last year, because of all the anti-vax nonsense.

I hope I'm wrong.