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progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:31 AM Oct 2012

And now a word on Polls and Hankies, from a 10-year DUer.

I just have to say this...

Noticing a lot of new DUers recently, and this is great. Seeing a lot of whining, worrying, crying, and concern, lately, and this is not great.

Here's the thing: This is what it was like in 2008. I don't know how many times we had to post the pic of Obama saying "Chill the Fuck Out! I've Got THis!" daily here. We don't really need 50 threads a day about how nervous you are, or about some random newspaper poll that is ALWAYS bad (when you don't take the time to research the methodology and history of that pollster and share it in your headline and post.)

Not trying to say that ignorance is bliss. But truly folks, it's like a freeper invasion here lately, with a certain group of people finding the worst polls they can find (even when it's CLEAR that there is a problem with that pollster or the poll,) and suddenly DU went from people feeling great about the election to damp hankies, and anxiety-based posts 24/7. Buck up folks. If you're "concerned" then do something. Volunteer to make phone calls, donate money. Do something. If you're "fake concerned" then we'll figure it out soon enough and you'll be tombstoned... and frankly, I get private messages every week from other long-time DUers and we laugh about the concern trolls here that think no one notices them. We notice. You're only demoralizing the newbies... you're NOT winning votes for Romney, so you might was well go down to the Romney office and volunteer on their phone banks (unless that's been outsourced to India, too.)

Okay.. and the polls. Here's the thing. As we get closer to the election the media SWITCHES to focusing on "likely voters." That's why the polls seem to be moving TOWARD Romney suddenly. He did NOT blow everyone away in the debates. THat is a media fiction. He may have won back some "Independents" who were unsure of him, but there is no way in hell the Obama voters suddenly found Romney irresistible.

What "likely" voter polls mean is based on the modeling done by the pollsters, NOT by the people being polled themselves. There is a statistical model that the pollsters used that says "a likely voter is a woman in her 50s, white, upper middle class, usually conservative.." or something like that. It's their definition. THat is why they got spanked in 2008. The models don't count on 'unlikely' voters standing in line for 10 hours to vote. And the polls have SHIFTED to "likely" and it looks like the race has tightened dramatically. I don't think it has. Early on the polls reflected all people polled.. not it's narrowed it down to "likely." You really REALLY need to make that distinction, especially if you post something. You guys are posting polls from a State saying "OMG! We are sunk!!!" when it's not the same damn poll from two weeks ago, just the same State.

Oh, and a word about polls with "Independents." This also was something the media and pollsters did in the last election. They sample 1/3 Dem, 1/3 repub, 1/3 Independent, in MANY polls. You have to watch for that. It's not accurate. The Dems and Repubs STILL dominate the voters ranks. There are NOT 1/3 of the voters registered as Independents. But the pollsters still let them have 1/3 of the poll, AND Independents are actually largely conservatives who left the Republican Party for a variety of reasons... so they always skew republican.

So please.. yes, it's okay to be concerned about things . But DU becomes almost unbearable for the weeping, and faux concern. If you're new.. here's the thing. There are "concern trolls." They are PAID to come to Democratic sites and post things to get people feeling insecure, AND to get fodder to post on other sites so that they can say "see??? The Democrats are FREAKING OUT!!! They KNOW that Obama is loosing" (yes, "loosing" conservatives can't fucking spell.

Really.. please.. chill out.

8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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And now a word on Polls and Hankies, from a 10-year DUer. (Original Post) progressivebydesign Oct 2012 OP
yup... nt seabeyond Oct 2012 #1
Since I'm a newbie, what's a freeper? meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #2
it refers to a website barbtries Oct 2012 #4
See "Free Republic" moriah Oct 2012 #5
Here it is! moriah Oct 2012 #6
You think this bogus information about polling is helpful? cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #3
You write well for a 10 year old. FSogol Oct 2012 #7
Thanks all for the explanation meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #8

moriah

(8,311 posts)
5. See "Free Republic"
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:50 AM
Oct 2012

I'm going to hunt down the old DU2 archive and find the old Vocabulary page we used to have.

cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
3. You think this bogus information about polling is helpful?
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:48 AM
Oct 2012

Almost everything said in the OP about polling is incorrect.

meadowlark5

(2,795 posts)
8. Thanks all for the explanation
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 12:00 PM
Oct 2012

And thanks moriah for the definition page! I didn't want to ask too many questions about terms I didn't understand - but freeper kept popping up and I couldn't figure out on my own what it might be.

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