Romney is finished

[grantcart]

I never thought that Romney had a chance for the nomination.

The Evangelical base would overlook any other fault in order not to have to support a Mormon.

From an establishment point of view he is damaged goods. Knowing the way they think their logic is that McCain was a terrible compaigner and he wiped Romney.

This time around Romney is not using tens of millions of personal dollars and while he has raised a lot of money most of it is from donors that have given the maximum.

That $ 10k bet misstep wasn't an ordinary misstep. It killed any possibility of him raising small donations.

Romney needs not just a win in NH but a commanding win because he foolishly moved there thinking that it would help him seal the deal. Not only didn't it add any support for him but in undermines his performance. If he wins it means little because it is his 'home' state. If he loses there they will say 'he can't win anywhere'.

One month ago Romney had a 27 point lead
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/22/nh-2012-primary-41-romney_n_1107372.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
41% Romney
14% Gingrich
14% Paul
9% Huntsman
8% Cain
3% Santorum
2% Perry
1% Bachmann
1% Karger
1% Roemer


Today Romney has a 10 point lead

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/nh-2012-primary-33-romney_n_1146278.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
33% Romney
22% Gingrich
18% Paul
10% Huntsman
3% Perry
3% Bachmann
3% Santorum


But a closer look at the numbers is even worse for Romney.

Between the two polls (and there are others that confirm today's results) Cain left the race freeing up 8% to be split among the other candidates.

Romney not only didn't pick up any support he lost some. While Gingrich picked up a lot, Paul picked up some (and all of the others picked up a little) Romney is the only one to have lost support.

One in five Romney supporters has left him in the last month.

And it gets worse.

The latest IA poll shows Romney in a weak third showing


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/ia-2012-primary-22-gingri_n_1146421.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
22% Gingrich
21% Paul
16% Romney
11% Bachmann
9% Perry
8% Santorum
5% Huntsman
1% Johnson

Right now he is only 5 points from 4th place and ONLY 8 POINTS AWAY FROM 6TH PLACE.

No one has more pressure on him on the next debate, and we all know how well he does under pressure!.

All of this hasn't gone unnoticed on Intrade where Romney shares on the nomination have lost 40% of the value in the last 4 weeks falling from a high of 70 to 40.

All of this is looking very grim for Romney because if he comes in a weak third or worse in Iowa his main message of "electability" will evaporate in NH and his campaign will collapse.

If you thought it was a zoo before, after NH the inmates will be taking over the asylum, in any case Cain's departure from the field showed that Romney has hit a very low and hard ceiling, that as people change their mind they don't choose him and some of the people that did choose him before are changing their mind.

As I have noted elsewhere all of this reinforces the liklihood of an open convention and a new set of candidates drafted from the floor, i.e. some Republican Governor.

[RBInMaine]

1. No one will be drafted from the floor. One of these clowns will emerge. And that's it.

[grantcart]

5. You are still operating on the old rules where a winner got all of the delegates.

With the change to proportional primaries (27 in all) no one in a vigorous 3 way race will get 51%. Remember 08 and how just 2 Democratic candidates went deep into the calendar with proportional primaries.

Had Edwards stayed in and gotten only5-7 of the vote then it would have gone to the convention.

Now that the Republicans have adopted proportional rather than winner take all primaries it will be impossible for anyone to rap it up if there are 4 viable candidates and no one drops out.

Last time Huckabee stayed on the trail until McCain had 51% of the delegates statistically tied up and this time there is less affection betweent he candidates.

And so far the superdelegates have largely decided to sit it out.

http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

[AtomicKitten]

2. I'm not so sure. There's still plenty of time for Newt to implode.

[deacon]

13. He's a runaway train. A train that will go off the cliff, imo. n/t

[SpiralHawk]

15. Newtie will be AWOL* by April

* = Away without logic

I'd bet a sack of doughnuts

[Old and In the Way]

3. Good synopsis

Christine O'Donnell sure knows how to pick 'em. Mitt's flip-flopping really did him in, I think. If he had defended his legacy as governor and stood up for what he has to know is smart politics, he might have survived the primaries. If not, at least he could gone down with some semblance of honor. Now he's just a loser with plenty of principal, but no principles.

[JohnnyRingo]

4. I disagree....

As long as the RNC remains a functional entity, we don't know who the candidate will be
I predict that at the last moment (Easter), the party will pull a switcheroo and instal Romeny because he looks good in a suit, he has a pumped up business resume', and it's his turn. That's all theparty needs, they'll mold him after the nomination like they did McCain.

Gingrich let the opportunity pass him by. Compare his old fart mug next to someone vital like Obama.

[grantcart]

6. They have lots of people who look good in suits but don't have his baggage

They are called Republican Governors and are the traditional source of Presidential candidates,

[Sherman A1]

9. Agreed

Romney will be the nominee, he will lose to Obama and the one to watch is who is the GOP VP selection.

[Firebrand Gary]

7. I am all but certain it will go to the Convention.

At this point the field is severely damaged. I agree with you, Willard is showing significant signs of wear. The clip of him trying to explain his stint in France was enough to give me a face palm. The dude is toast.

The all mighty corporate powers that be will not allow Gingrich or Paul to gain the nomination.

Paul will run as a third party.

Therefor we will have to wait until the convention for their "savior" to appear. I have to wonder, will it be Santorum? Ugh... If that's the case, how pathetic is that?

[jannyk]

8. The 'fat lady' ain't even started yet! nt

[Chipper Chat]

11. She's still gargling her lemon juice.

And I think I hear her uttering: jeb....jebbbbbbb...jjeb.

[SammyWinstonJack]

12. Yes probably so.

[RainDog]

10. Who are the governors that have a shot? n/t

[grantcart]

21. They have 29 and they aren't all idiots

Right now Pawlenty looks like a genius next to these guys.

Daniels would be very strong, a year ago he had 75% approval rating, he was director of OMB so he knows how government actually works. He also has stated that this year the Republicans should put all of the social questions on the shelf and run solely on the economy.

McDonnell of VA would be much stronger than any of these jerks.

Here is a list

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

[sendero]

14. When I hear Romney

.... speak in staccato, pressured bursts, I do not hear a viable presidential candidate. I don't remember him sounding like that last time, but to me he never makes a good impression in the debates, never.

[Owlet]

16. Mr. Chairman, the Great State of Louisiana is proud to nominate

for the office of President her own favorite son and Governor

[LAGC]

17. The problem with Bobby Jindal is he isn't a very good orator.

I remember seeing him deliver the "Republican response" to one of Obama's State of the Union speeches (was it 2010?), and he was really weak sauce.

I don't think he'd survive the debates against Obama, and most Republicans know this.

He'll never be the nominee.

[Skidmore]

18. Just saw a couple of Ron Paul ads this morning that pick Newtie to pieces

over the monies he took with his consulting firm. Those ads were scathing. I don't count Paul out here yet.

[pampango]

19. FWIW, Intrade currently shows Romney at 49% and Newt at 32%.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

[grantcart]

20. But Romney was 70 just a few weeks ago and the key in a primary is momentum

Gingrich also won't be the nominee either.

I couldn't find a market for an open/brokered convention but that would be my bet.

[DavidDvorkin]

22. On Intrade, Romney seems to have regained momentum

and Gingrich seems to have lost it and to be slipping back again.

[grantcart]

23. We definitely aren't looking at the same charts

this is what I am seeing, what are you looking at?

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=654836&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

FWIW I don't think Gingrich will get it either.

[DavidDvorkin]

24. I've been watching the percentages on the main page

http://intrade.com/v4/home/

[grantcart]

25. Now I am confused when you hit on Gingrich's graph how do you conclude that he is slipping,

he's at an all time high?

[DavidDvorkin]

27. There's an inconsistency there that confuses me

Gingrich is at a high if you look at the price for a share of him. But if you look at the percentage chance of his getting the nomination (what you see if you click Latest), which is what I watch, he was over 39% a few days ago, and now he's at 31%. He was just above 30% this morning, when I wrote that post.

[DavidDvorkin]

39. And now it's Romney 52.9%, Gingrich 28.2%

The Gingrich boom seems to be deflating.

[DavidDvorkin]

45. Right now on Intrade: Romney 61%, Gingrich 15%

Huntsman is at 10% and rising.

[sufrommich]

26. I still don't see a brokered covention

unless Paul somehow wins the primaries. And then they would be dealing with Paul running with a third party. If Gingrich wins the primaries, there is no way in hell he will allow a brokered convention,he'll destroy the GOP before he'll give up what he won. If it's not Romney (and I agree it's not looking good for him), it will most likely be Gingrich or one of the others in the race .Pawlenty must be crying himself to sleep nightly at this point.

[grantcart]

31. Let's ask it this way. Currently no candidate is getting more than 35% in any one primary.

Who do you see that is going to get 51% in all of them, because that's what it takes to secure the nomination before the convention and I don't see any two candidates getting that before the convention.

[sufrommich]

37. It would be very hard for it to stay a 3 way race though.

I think there are only a few GOP states that even give away proportional delegates, isn't there? I also think the winner take all primaries are most of the big states. The last 2 standing may be close, bit I'd be surprised if it's actually 50/50 on the nose by then.

[grantcart]

42. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh

This

is

my

point

Old system

gone

Here are the new rules

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Ohio_Plan_proposal

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

Based on a temporary committee's proposal, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections on August 6, 2010 with 103 votes in favor out of 144.[228] Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:[229]
February 1 – March 5, 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina
March 6 – March 31, 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates
April 1, 2012 and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections

By the fall of 2011, several states scheduled contests contravening this plan, pushing the primary calendar into January. These contests are in violation of RNC rules, with New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan set to be penalized with a loss of half of their delegates. As they are holding non-binding caucuses, Iowa, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota will not be automatically penalized, as their contests to bind national delegates are made later.[230]




so between March 6 -31 proportional how many could that be?

TWENTY ONE


Here they are

March 6


Alaska
Georgia
Idaho
Massachusetts
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Wyoming

March 10-13

Kansas
US Virgin Isl
Alabama
American Samoa
Hawaii
Missisippi

March 17 -24

Missouri
Puerto Rico
Illinoois
Lousiana


Last Huckabee didn't give up until they hit 51% and this time there will be no reason for anybody to stop, if they don't have much money they just can go and do cable.

If they keep it undecided they can go to the convention and wield more power, possible hold out for VP or a committment for a cabinet position. I am sure that Huntsman would love to be SOS and so on.

If you remember the Democratic Primary it remained very close when there were only two candidates. If there are three or more, and you have a large number of proportional selected delegates then it is virtually impossible to get 51% unless you take almost all of the winner take all primaries.

There are about 400 Super Delegates and all but about 20 of them are sitting on the sides, uncommitted.

http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

[Jackpine Radical]

28. This leads to an obvious question--

Do you think the Republicans will Diebold their own primaries?

[grantcart]

32. No because I don't think anybody in the primaries is going to be the nominee

and if they simply keep3-4 candidates active then no one will get 51%

I think that they will diebold the convention.

I think that the powers to be already have a nominee and a running mate picked and they are already running practice debates getting them ready for the Obama.

I don't think that there is any chance that they are going to give the mic to Gingrich and let him speak for the party for 4 years.

I believe that they saw the chaos and near disaster of Palin and will secure the process to bring a much more professional team that is in the primaries.

[Jackpine Radical]

38. That's interesting speculation.

Any guesses…?

[grantcart]

43. I would look at this team

Mitch Daniels

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Daniels

He won reelction with 57%

He was head of OMB






Bob McDonnell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2009

He won election with 58%


This would put a team together who both have executive experience and have won elections in states that have been very narrow.

It would help solidify a Republican campaign into the midwest, border states, and the south.

They could walk away from the primary disaster and get a huge buzz from the media for something 'new' and 'fresh'. Remember how crazy the media went when Palin hit the scene.

I don't think that they would win but at this point the Republican Party isn't concerned about winning the White House, the only thing that they really want is a huge turnout by the base so that they can keep the House and take the Senate.

In some ways keeping the President in the White House helps them in orther areas because they can continue to sabotage him and then blame him while expanding power in other areas.

Thats my speculation, I think the whole primary thing is a farce.

[taught_me_patience]

29. The Republican machine is firing up behind Romney

They don't want Newt to the be nominee. Romney will win.

[DavidDvorkin]

30. Rick Perry, Mitt Romney internals show Newt Gingrich slippage, sources say

Politico, for what it's worth:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2011/12/rick-perry-mitt-romney-internals-show-newt-slippage-107461.html

[grantcart]

35. Interesting, especially the last two paragraphs

"Gingrich [is] leveling off and the attacks are starting to permeate the minds of Iowa caucus-goers," said one veteran Republican caucus-watcher in Iowa. "[The] level of attention being played to the caucuses by Iowans is still high, despite the holidays. That's uncommon. I believe Paul can trip up Newt here, and that's great news for Romney because Newt is done if that happens. Watch Rick Perry. He's going for a top three finish, and that could be to Romney's expense."

If Romney were to come in fourth, that would be awfully hard to recover from, given potential spillover in New Hampshire. And if Paul were to finish first, many Iowa GOPers believe that would be hard for the Hawkeye State to recover from in terms of maintaining premiere status in the nominating process.



My point exactly - Romney not only isn't going to win IA he could come in 4th or if has another bad debate 6th.

His problem is that everyone who is going to choose him already has, any body that changes their mind is going to be away from him.

[DavidDvorkin]

36. If Romney doesn't get the nomination this time

then his political career is over. Or so I would think.

[Fire Walk With Me]

33. Who are the people who would vote for Newt Gingrich!?

[grantcart]

34. High end jewelry sales persons

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

40. and divorce lawyers

[Wind Dancer]

41. LOL!

[Tommy_Carcetti]

46. An old college classmate of mine is actually heading up Newt's local campaign.

Here's the funny part:

He was married for almost 10 years but recently got divorced out of the blue. Almost immediately (if not beforehand) he started dating a barely legal college sophomore president of the local young GOPers 12 years his junior, and they are now engaged to be married despite only officially dating for 3 months.

I wonder why Newt would be such an inspiration to him....

[Scuba]

44. It'll be Jeb. They miss having a shrub in the WH. n/t