Wed Dec 14, 2011, 04:24 AM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
Romney is finished
I never thought that Romney had a chance for the nomination.
The Evangelical base would overlook any other fault in order not to have to support a Mormon. From an establishment point of view he is damaged goods. Knowing the way they think their logic is that McCain was a terrible compaigner and he wiped Romney. This time around Romney is not using tens of millions of personal dollars and while he has raised a lot of money most of it is from donors that have given the maximum. That $ 10k bet misstep wasn't an ordinary misstep. It killed any possibility of him raising small donations. Romney needs not just a win in NH but a commanding win because he foolishly moved there thinking that it would help him seal the deal. Not only didn't it add any support for him but in undermines his performance. If he wins it means little because it is his 'home' state. If he loses there they will say 'he can't win anywhere'. One month ago Romney had a 27 point lead http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/22/nh-2012-primary-41-romney_n_1107372.html 2012 President: Republican Primary 41% Romney 14% Gingrich 14% Paul 9% Huntsman 8% Cain 3% Santorum 2% Perry 1% Bachmann 1% Karger 1% Roemer Today Romney has a 10 point lead http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/nh-2012-primary-33-romney_n_1146278.html 2012 President: Republican Primary 33% Romney 22% Gingrich 18% Paul 10% Huntsman 3% Perry 3% Bachmann 3% Santorum But a closer look at the numbers is even worse for Romney. Between the two polls (and there are others that confirm today's results) Cain left the race freeing up 8% to be split among the other candidates. Romney not only didn't pick up any support he lost some. While Gingrich picked up a lot, Paul picked up some (and all of the others picked up a little) Romney is the only one to have lost support. One in five Romney supporters has left him in the last month. And it gets worse. The latest IA poll shows Romney in a weak third showing http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/ia-2012-primary-22-gingri_n_1146421.html 2012 President: Republican Primary 22% Gingrich 21% Paul 16% Romney 11% Bachmann 9% Perry 8% Santorum 5% Huntsman 1% Johnson Right now he is only 5 points from 4th place and ONLY 8 POINTS AWAY FROM 6TH PLACE. No one has more pressure on him on the next debate, and we all know how well he does under pressure!. All of this hasn't gone unnoticed on Intrade where Romney shares on the nomination have lost 40% of the value in the last 4 weeks falling from a high of 70 to 40. All of this is looking very grim for Romney because if he comes in a weak third or worse in Iowa his main message of "electability" will evaporate in NH and his campaign will collapse. If you thought it was a zoo before, after NH the inmates will be taking over the asylum, in any case Cain's departure from the field showed that Romney has hit a very low and hard ceiling, that as people change their mind they don't choose him and some of the people that did choose him before are changing their mind. As I have noted elsewhere all of this reinforces the liklihood of an open convention and a new set of candidates drafted from the floor, i.e. some Republican Governor.
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46 replies, 6900 views
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Author | Time | Post |
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grantcart | Dec 2011 | OP |
RBInMaine | Dec 2011 | #1 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #5 | |
AtomicKitten | Dec 2011 | #2 | |
deacon | Dec 2011 | #13 | |
SpiralHawk | Dec 2011 | #15 | |
Old and In the Way | Dec 2011 | #3 | |
JohnnyRingo | Dec 2011 | #4 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #6 | |
Sherman A1 | Dec 2011 | #9 | |
Firebrand Gary | Dec 2011 | #7 | |
jannyk | Dec 2011 | #8 | |
Chipper Chat | Dec 2011 | #11 | |
SammyWinstonJack | Dec 2011 | #12 | |
RainDog | Dec 2011 | #10 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #21 | |
sendero | Dec 2011 | #14 | |
Owlet | Dec 2011 | #16 | |
LAGC | Dec 2011 | #17 | |
Skidmore | Dec 2011 | #18 | |
pampango | Dec 2011 | #19 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #20 | |
DavidDvorkin | Dec 2011 | #22 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #23 | |
DavidDvorkin | Dec 2011 | #24 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #25 | |
DavidDvorkin | Dec 2011 | #27 | |
DavidDvorkin | Dec 2011 | #39 | |
DavidDvorkin | Dec 2011 | #45 | |
sufrommich | Dec 2011 | #26 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #31 | |
sufrommich | Dec 2011 | #37 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #42 | |
Jackpine Radical | Dec 2011 | #28 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #32 | |
Jackpine Radical | Dec 2011 | #38 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #43 | |
taught_me_patience | Dec 2011 | #29 | |
DavidDvorkin | Dec 2011 | #30 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #35 | |
DavidDvorkin | Dec 2011 | #36 | |
Fire Walk With Me | Dec 2011 | #33 | |
grantcart | Dec 2011 | #34 | |
aint_no_life_nowhere | Dec 2011 | #40 | |
Wind Dancer | Dec 2011 | #41 | |
Tommy_Carcetti | Dec 2011 | #46 | |
Scuba | Dec 2011 | #44 |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 04:38 AM
RBInMaine (13,570 posts)
1. No one will be drafted from the floor. One of these clowns will emerge. And that's it.
Response to RBInMaine (Reply #1)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 04:59 AM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
5. You are still operating on the old rules where a winner got all of the delegates.
With the change to proportional primaries (27 in all) no one in a vigorous 3 way race will get 51%. Remember 08 and how just 2 Democratic candidates went deep into the calendar with proportional primaries. Had Edwards stayed in and gotten only5-7 of the vote then it would have gone to the convention. Now that the Republicans have adopted proportional rather than winner take all primaries it will be impossible for anyone to rap it up if there are 4 viable candidates and no one drops out. Last time Huckabee stayed on the trail until McCain had 51% of the delegates statistically tied up and this time there is less affection betweent he candidates. And so far the superdelegates have largely decided to sit it out. http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 04:42 AM
AtomicKitten (46,585 posts)
2. I'm not so sure. There's still plenty of time for Newt to implode.
Response to AtomicKitten (Reply #2)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:08 AM
deacon (5,967 posts)
13. He's a runaway train. A train that will go off the cliff, imo. n/t
Response to AtomicKitten (Reply #2)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:28 AM
SpiralHawk (32,944 posts)
15. Newtie will be AWOL* by April
* = Away without logic
I'd bet a sack of doughnuts |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 04:48 AM
Old and In the Way (37,540 posts)
3. Good synopsis
Christine O'Donnell sure knows how to pick 'em. Mitt's flip-flopping really did him in, I think. If he had defended his legacy as governor and stood up for what he has to know is smart politics, he might have survived the primaries. If not, at least he could gone down with some semblance of honor. Now he's just a loser with plenty of principal, but no principles.
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Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 04:49 AM
JohnnyRingo (17,137 posts)
4. I disagree....
As long as the RNC remains a functional entity, we don't know who the candidate will be
I predict that at the last moment (Easter), the party will pull a switcheroo and instal Romeny because he looks good in a suit, he has a pumped up business resume', and it's his turn. That's all theparty needs, they'll mold him after the nomination like they did McCain. Gingrich let the opportunity pass him by. Compare his old fart mug next to someone vital like Obama. |
Response to JohnnyRingo (Reply #4)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 05:00 AM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
6. They have lots of people who look good in suits but don't have his baggage
They are called Republican Governors and are the traditional source of Presidential candidates, |
Response to JohnnyRingo (Reply #4)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:03 AM
Sherman A1 (38,958 posts)
9. Agreed
Romney will be the nominee, he will lose to Obama and the one to watch is who is the GOP VP selection.
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Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 05:40 AM
Firebrand Gary (5,044 posts)
7. I am all but certain it will go to the Convention.
At this point the field is severely damaged. I agree with you, Willard is showing significant signs of wear. The clip of him trying to explain his stint in France was enough to give me a face palm. The dude is toast.
The all mighty corporate powers that be will not allow Gingrich or Paul to gain the nomination. Paul will run as a third party. Therefor we will have to wait until the convention for their "savior" to appear. I have to wonder, will it be Santorum? Ugh... If that's the case, how pathetic is that? |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:02 AM
jannyk (4,810 posts)
8. The 'fat lady' ain't even started yet! nt
Response to jannyk (Reply #8)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:34 AM
Chipper Chat (8,632 posts)
11. She's still gargling her lemon juice.
And I think I hear her uttering: jeb....jebbbbbbb...jjeb.
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Response to Chipper Chat (Reply #11)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:06 AM
SammyWinstonJack (44,078 posts)
12. Yes probably so.
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Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:14 AM
RainDog (28,784 posts)
10. Who are the governors that have a shot? n/t
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Response to RainDog (Reply #10)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 12:51 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
21. They have 29 and they aren't all idiots
Right now Pawlenty looks like a genius next to these guys. Daniels would be very strong, a year ago he had 75% approval rating, he was director of OMB so he knows how government actually works. He also has stated that this year the Republicans should put all of the social questions on the shelf and run solely on the economy. McDonnell of VA would be much stronger than any of these jerks. Here is a list http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:17 AM
sendero (28,552 posts)
14. When I hear Romney
.... speak in staccato, pressured bursts, I do not hear a viable presidential candidate. I don't remember him sounding like that last time, but to me he never makes a good impression in the debates, never.
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Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:37 AM
Owlet (1,248 posts)
16. Mr. Chairman, the Great State of Louisiana is proud to nominate
for the office of President her own favorite son and Governor
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Response to Owlet (Reply #16)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:48 AM
LAGC (5,330 posts)
17. The problem with Bobby Jindal is he isn't a very good orator.
I remember seeing him deliver the "Republican response" to one of Obama's State of the Union speeches (was it 2010?), and he was really weak sauce.
I don't think he'd survive the debates against Obama, and most Republicans know this. He'll never be the nominee. |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 08:02 AM
Skidmore (37,364 posts)
18. Just saw a couple of Ron Paul ads this morning that pick Newtie to pieces
over the monies he took with his consulting firm. Those ads were scathing. I don't count Paul out here yet.
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Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 08:13 AM
pampango (24,690 posts)
19. FWIW, Intrade currently shows Romney at 49% and Newt at 32%.
Response to pampango (Reply #19)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 12:39 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
20. But Romney was 70 just a few weeks ago and the key in a primary is momentum
Gingrich also won't be the nominee either. I couldn't find a market for an open/brokered convention but that would be my bet. |
Response to grantcart (Reply #20)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 01:08 PM
DavidDvorkin (18,579 posts)
22. On Intrade, Romney seems to have regained momentum
and Gingrich seems to have lost it and to be slipping back again.
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Response to DavidDvorkin (Reply #22)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 01:31 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
23. We definitely aren't looking at the same charts
this is what I am seeing, what are you looking at?
https://www.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=654836&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com FWIW I don't think Gingrich will get it either. |
Response to grantcart (Reply #23)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 01:56 PM
DavidDvorkin (18,579 posts)
24. I've been watching the percentages on the main page
Response to DavidDvorkin (Reply #24)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 02:06 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
25. Now I am confused when you hit on Gingrich's graph how do you conclude that he is slipping,
he's at an all time high?
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Response to grantcart (Reply #25)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 03:00 PM
DavidDvorkin (18,579 posts)
27. There's an inconsistency there that confuses me
Gingrich is at a high if you look at the price for a share of him. But if you look at the percentage chance of his getting the nomination (what you see if you click Latest), which is what I watch, he was over 39% a few days ago, and now he's at 31%. He was just above 30% this morning, when I wrote that post.
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Response to pampango (Reply #19)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 08:32 PM
DavidDvorkin (18,579 posts)
39. And now it's Romney 52.9%, Gingrich 28.2%
The Gingrich boom seems to be deflating.
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Response to DavidDvorkin (Reply #39)
Thu Dec 15, 2011, 10:58 AM
DavidDvorkin (18,579 posts)
45. Right now on Intrade: Romney 61%, Gingrich 15%
Huntsman is at 10% and rising.
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Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 02:16 PM
sufrommich (22,871 posts)
26. I still don't see a brokered covention
unless Paul somehow wins the primaries. And then they would be dealing with Paul running with a third party. If Gingrich wins the primaries, there is no way in hell he will allow a brokered convention,he'll destroy the GOP before he'll give up what he won. If it's not Romney (and I agree it's not looking good for him), it will most likely be Gingrich or one of the others in the race .Pawlenty must be crying himself to sleep nightly at this point.
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Response to sufrommich (Reply #26)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:35 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
31. Let's ask it this way. Currently no candidate is getting more than 35% in any one primary.
Who do you see that is going to get 51% in all of them, because that's what it takes to secure the nomination before the convention and I don't see any two candidates getting that before the convention. |
Response to grantcart (Reply #31)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:08 PM
sufrommich (22,871 posts)
37. It would be very hard for it to stay a 3 way race though.
I think there are only a few GOP states that even give away proportional delegates, isn't there? I also think the winner take all primaries are most of the big states. The last 2 standing may be close, bit I'd be surprised if it's actually 50/50 on the nose by then.
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Response to sufrommich (Reply #37)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 08:44 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
42. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh
This is my point Old system gone Here are the new rules http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Ohio_Plan_proposal Guidelines for primary and caucus dates Based on a temporary committee's proposal, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections on August 6, 2010 with 103 votes in favor out of 144.[228] Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:[229] February 1 – March 5, 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina March 6 – March 31, 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates April 1, 2012 and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections By the fall of 2011, several states scheduled contests contravening this plan, pushing the primary calendar into January. These contests are in violation of RNC rules, with New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan set to be penalized with a loss of half of their delegates. As they are holding non-binding caucuses, Iowa, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota will not be automatically penalized, as their contests to bind national delegates are made later.[230] so between March 6 -31 proportional how many could that be? TWENTY ONE Here they are March 6 Alaska Georgia Idaho Massachusetts North Dakota Oklahoma Tennessee Texas Vermont Virginia Wyoming March 10-13 Kansas US Virgin Isl Alabama American Samoa Hawaii Missisippi March 17 -24 Missouri Puerto Rico Illinoois Lousiana Last Huckabee didn't give up until they hit 51% and this time there will be no reason for anybody to stop, if they don't have much money they just can go and do cable. If they keep it undecided they can go to the convention and wield more power, possible hold out for VP or a committment for a cabinet position. I am sure that Huntsman would love to be SOS and so on. If you remember the Democratic Primary it remained very close when there were only two candidates. If there are three or more, and you have a large number of proportional selected delegates then it is virtually impossible to get 51% unless you take almost all of the winner take all primaries. There are about 400 Super Delegates and all but about 20 of them are sitting on the sides, uncommitted. http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 03:15 PM
Jackpine Radical (45,274 posts)
28. This leads to an obvious question--
Do you think the Republicans will Diebold their own primaries?
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Response to Jackpine Radical (Reply #28)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:48 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
32. No because I don't think anybody in the primaries is going to be the nominee
and if they simply keep3-4 candidates active then no one will get 51%
I think that they will diebold the convention. I think that the powers to be already have a nominee and a running mate picked and they are already running practice debates getting them ready for the Obama. I don't think that there is any chance that they are going to give the mic to Gingrich and let him speak for the party for 4 years. I believe that they saw the chaos and near disaster of Palin and will secure the process to bring a much more professional team that is in the primaries. |
Response to grantcart (Reply #32)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:39 PM
Jackpine Radical (45,274 posts)
38. That's interesting speculation.
Any guesses…?
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Response to Jackpine Radical (Reply #38)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 08:59 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
43. I would look at this team
![]() Mitch Daniels http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Daniels He won reelction with 57% He was head of OMB ![]() Bob McDonnell http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2009 He won election with 58% This would put a team together who both have executive experience and have won elections in states that have been very narrow. It would help solidify a Republican campaign into the midwest, border states, and the south. They could walk away from the primary disaster and get a huge buzz from the media for something 'new' and 'fresh'. Remember how crazy the media went when Palin hit the scene. I don't think that they would win but at this point the Republican Party isn't concerned about winning the White House, the only thing that they really want is a huge turnout by the base so that they can keep the House and take the Senate. In some ways keeping the President in the White House helps them in orther areas because they can continue to sabotage him and then blame him while expanding power in other areas. Thats my speculation, I think the whole primary thing is a farce. |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 03:43 PM
taught_me_patience (5,477 posts)
29. The Republican machine is firing up behind Romney
They don't want Newt to the be nominee. Romney will win.
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Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 04:00 PM
DavidDvorkin (18,579 posts)
30. Rick Perry, Mitt Romney internals show Newt Gingrich slippage, sources say
Politico, for what it's worth:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2011/12/rick-perry-mitt-romney-internals-show-newt-slippage-107461.html |
Response to DavidDvorkin (Reply #30)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:59 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
35. Interesting, especially the last two paragraphs
"Gingrich [is] leveling off and the attacks are starting to permeate the minds of Iowa caucus-goers," said one veteran Republican caucus-watcher in Iowa. "[The] level of attention being played to the caucuses by Iowans is still high, despite the holidays. That's uncommon. I believe Paul can trip up Newt here, and that's great news for Romney because Newt is done if that happens. Watch Rick Perry. He's going for a top three finish, and that could be to Romney's expense."
If Romney were to come in fourth, that would be awfully hard to recover from, given potential spillover in New Hampshire. And if Paul were to finish first, many Iowa GOPers believe that would be hard for the Hawkeye State to recover from in terms of maintaining premiere status in the nominating process. My point exactly - Romney not only isn't going to win IA he could come in 4th or if has another bad debate 6th. His problem is that everyone who is going to choose him already has, any body that changes their mind is going to be away from him. |
Response to grantcart (Reply #35)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 07:04 PM
DavidDvorkin (18,579 posts)
36. If Romney doesn't get the nomination this time
then his political career is over. Or so I would think.
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Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:51 PM
Fire Walk With Me (38,893 posts)
33. Who are the people who would vote for Newt Gingrich!?
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Response to Fire Walk With Me (Reply #33)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 06:55 PM
grantcart (51,738 posts)
34. High end jewelry sales persons
Response to grantcart (Reply #34)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 08:33 PM
aint_no_life_nowhere (21,925 posts)
40. and divorce lawyers
Response to aint_no_life_nowhere (Reply #40)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 08:39 PM
Wind Dancer (3,618 posts)
41. LOL!
Response to Fire Walk With Me (Reply #33)
Thu Dec 15, 2011, 12:13 PM
Tommy_Carcetti (41,467 posts)
46. An old college classmate of mine is actually heading up Newt's local campaign.
Here's the funny part:
He was married for almost 10 years but recently got divorced out of the blue. Almost immediately (if not beforehand) he started dating a barely legal college sophomore president of the local young GOPers 12 years his junior, and they are now engaged to be married despite only officially dating for 3 months. I wonder why Newt would be such an inspiration to him.... |
Response to grantcart (Original post)
Wed Dec 14, 2011, 10:44 PM
Scuba (53,475 posts)
44. It'll be Jeb. They miss having a shrub in the WH. n/t