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cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 12:34 AM Jan 2012

The media has a vested interest in this thing not being over.

They have to talk about something. These primaries are going to happen no matter what and they'll have to cover them.

But despite the fact that Romney is not beloved it doesn't follow that he will not win in a walk. Somebody has to actually beat him.

And going forward this race is about money, not "kissing hands and shaking babies." Who will beat Romney? Huntsman? Paul? Gingrich? Perry? (Nobody else can get on enough ballots to win squat.)

At this point Newt is a gadfly. Perry... um, no. Huntsman isn't going anywhere. And Santorumentum isn't going to pan out. Santorum could have, and arguably should have gotten 20% in NH and zoomed to first place in South Carolina polls. Didn't happen.

Yes, this thing will drag out because many races this year have some form of proportinate delegate distribution. Romney will not clinch for quite some time. But he will not be challenged in any serious way. Romney will win Michigan and Nevada handily. (Over 50% in MI and maybe 70% in NV) He will probably be the only candiate with the $$$ to really play in Florida. He is guaranteed to win Virgina. And he happens to be polling in first place in South Carolina, the state people talk about him losing. At some point one has to talk about other people actually winning, not Romney losing to the vague spectre of unenthusiasm.

And our best reason to believe this? Because it is obviously what the WH and DNC believe, and they are probably fairly shrewd.

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FarLeftFist

(6,161 posts)
1. There is absolutely no enthusiasm in the RW right now and the media is trying to make it
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 12:42 AM
Jan 2012

appear that anyone even cares what these terrible candidates have to say, even while the republican voters themselves are increasingly unenthused and unimpressed. The media is still trying to chase that cold November night back in '08.

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
2. I feel that in a true sense, these GOP primaries are how they mainstream their extremism.
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 12:47 AM
Jan 2012

Another thread on the board said the Super Bowl will be putting on television spots of aborted fetuses. This would not have been allowed in the past.

There is more to these things than winning electiona, they are saying outrageous things like getting rid of social security, attacking the poor and disabled, calling for invading other countries, etc. to get people used to their Tea Party Express mentality.

These circuses give cover for wingnuts to do these things on a state by state level. Only the faces will be different, the ideology is the same.

And mocking them is not working on the local level.

FrenchieCat

(68,867 posts)
3. Who will spend all that superpac money on advertising
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 01:18 AM
Jan 2012

if the primaries are over before they begin and a winner is called too soon?

How will they part Pres. Obama and his opponent of their millions for advertising, if it isn't a "close" race? Which is why you hear that repeated every day....


That is why the sorrier the Republican Nominee is, the harder the media will go after this President.....cause they need a contest!


Media sticks their finger in the eye of our democracy......
and that makes them Traitors with a capital "T"!

Old and In the Way

(37,540 posts)
4. Unless the dynamic changes, I think it continues pretty much like this through the rest
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 01:20 AM
Jan 2012

of the primaries. The only way this changes is if a Santorum, Perry, and Gringrich can consolidate their campaigns into a single race. I really don't see any other way that the race changes from the trajectory it's on now. But I'm not sure that these 3 have the inclination or the ego to exit the race now. Personally, I think this is a pretty good scenario playing out for Obama. Romney may win his Party's nomination, but there's going to be a significant segment of unhappy conservatives who will not vote or go 3rd Party in the GE.

cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
5. Oddly enough...
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 02:15 PM
Jan 2012

Romney is the second choice of a lot of gingrich, perry and santorum voters. So if two of those men dropped out the remaining one would have much less support than the three get together.

Old and In the Way

(37,540 posts)
6. The desire to win may well trump their ideological preferences.
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 05:36 PM
Jan 2012

Still, it depends on how Mitt's vetting goes. As his Bain bio gets out there, it might change some minds and I still think a 3rd Party conservative challenge is likely if Mitt becomes the nominee.

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