I'd like a bit of help, some ideas from all of you.

[PatrickforO]

I just read this post and replied to it, asking for input, but I decided I ought to post this by itself in General Discussion.

I am doing serious research on the post-pandemic future of commercial real estate, workforce patterns and concentrations, community planning and economic development. As part of that, I would like to ask for your thoughts, if you'd care to give them. And any links to stuff you have read would also be quite appreciated. Many on here are quite bright.

If you read the Hudson Yards article it does beg the question of what our economy will look like post pandemic. Erstwhile retail stores converted to offices or industrial space, even residences. A vast, cold mall standing empty.

The philosophy of the capitalists, particularly the conservative Chicago School variety, is one of unlimited growth. But unlimited growth is also the philosophy of cancer cells.

There are economic development people who ramrod projects like this through by pressuring local and state governments to give massive tax incentives to investors, which then squeeze their ability to provide the local and state government services people count on. That has been an issue for some time - at least the last decade - and there are related articles at the bottom of this one about how NYC outdid itself to 'attract' this wonderful new thing.

Remember when AOC took all that flak about protesting against $3.5 billion politicians in NYC had foolishly offered Amazon to open its HQ2 there? That would have amounted to a $146,000 handout to Jeff Bezos per job that was promised, and now look what has happened to this pile of foolishness called Hudson Yards.

Maybe we need a new paradigm. Maybe seeking unlimited growth is as illusory as chasing unlimited power, as the Emperor Palpatine did in Star Wars. It is stupid over the long haul. You know, China was a victim of this - it has huge empty cities it built, to which no one ever came. Brand new, shiny, and filled with the ghosts of the hopes of politicians and investors.

Here's my question to you:

What, do you wonder, will our economy look like on the other side of this pandemic? What will economic development look like? What will the workforce look like? How will the so-called 'power of place' evolve? Will cities continue to rule the economic roost? Suburbs? Exurbs? Will rural America have a new (virtual) economic awakening?

I really want to know what you all think because I am doing a research project on this.

[Ferrets are Cool]

1. I can only speak to my field of "expertise" which is real estate

I think we are going to see a historic amounts of foreclosures this year. Even with the financial assistance, it's not enough to keep people afloat. JMO

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. I wish I could really answer your excellent post, but I'm not educated enough to do that.

I hope you'll get the input you want!

In the meantime, here's a kick:

[Kitchari]

3. Opportunity for a vast reset

In so many ways. I hope our priorities tend toward caring for the vulnerable and the environment. This is a difficult and amazing time.

[Freddie]

4. All good questions!

I think the ability of many to work from home has opened eyes. My daughter is an RN case manager for Aetna. She’s not one of those “bean counters” who denies care. She arranges care for those who need it; a nursing home, home care nurses, medical equipment. Prior to the pandemic she had a 45 minute commute to an industrial park, to be on the phone most of the day. Now she’s WFH, just as productive if not more so, and so much happier not dealing with the commute and being able to work in her jammies if she wants to. The local Aetna office is probably going to give up their lease and keep everyone WFH.
IMO these industrial parks could be turned into no-frills, affordable apartments. Plenty of parking and usually good locations. Malls or offices can become community college branches. When a local bank closed some years ago they turned the corporate HQ into a community college “north campus” which is now so popular they had to add buildings.

[PatrickforO]

5. Thank you! I have a colleague who also advocates this approach to vacant space. nt

[frazzled]

6. I think you're leaving out the impact of technology

Bricks and mortar retail was already undergoing considerable attrition before the pandemic; COVID merely accelerated it and made more retail businesses realize that their future was online. No more expensive rents and upkeep, and fewer employees to pay.

Now, as a result of the pandemic, coupled with technology, many businesses, including even some colleges and medical practices, are seeing they they too can save money by moving more of their activities online.

Those towering office buildings in my city are virtually empty right now, and I doubt they will be coming back in any considerable way after the pandemic ... there will be many buildings and department stores in our cities that will remain empty and deteriorating, some of them architectural gems that have given life and beauty to our urban environments for a century or more.

I’ve been asking for a long time what our cities will look like as more shops and business leave the real world to go online. Empty streets without people, empty storefronts except for restaurants and eyebrow threading and nail salons.

Capitalism won’t be going away ... it’s stronger than ever. But the physical nature of cities and the social engagement of the people will be much altered ... not because of the pandemic per se, but because of the onward march of technological evolution.

I hope I am wrong, because I think these changes are destructive to the social fabric.

[PatrickforO]

9. Thanks for a thoughtful response. It is true, as you say, that

in spite of all the lip service capitalists pay to competition, it is the nature of capital to concentrate itself into monopolies, which are more efficient, but also raise barriers to entry, and leave consumers vulnerable to price gouging.

In my state, there are several developments in the rural resort areas that have taken a 'small town' approach, with multi-use zoning allowing for apartments to be built right around office, retail and industrial space. You've really brought up a good point, though - how will our 'social fabric'/sense of community/power of place change in the face of working from home and increasing online purchases? Will this be an 'unraveling' of our social fabric, or will the fabric develop new patterns?

I often am called upon to speak to groups of businesses, economic developers, government officials and so on, and to me the virtual abilities we have with platforms like Zoom, Teams, GtM and others are nothing short of miraculous. It allows me, with an ambulatory disability and iffy health to have a whole new lease on life in terms of my ability to present.

And working from home? For me, 'delighted' is a good descriptor.

The only thing is that I must consciously choose to get up and out, to drive, to walk, to exercise. But I'm finding it is far easier to reach out to friends and connect in a virtual environment than it was physically.

[Oldem]

7. I'm not an expert in this field, but I've done some thinking on it.

You write that "unlimited growth" might not be the right goal. I think "unlimited wealth" is a large part of our problem. And I second the poster who said we should set our sights on helping others. The free enterprise system has served us well, but it contains the seeds of its own undoing: it is based on the desire to acquire wealth. That's greed, and that's one of the seven deadly sins, probably second only to pride in destructive power. I think what's required is a massive paradigm shift, and I'm not hopeful that such a shift will happen given that we're pretty far along the road to autocracy. (See the recent thread on the Mercer family.)

[PatrickforO]

10. Yeah, I did see the Mercer post. It is troubling.

The lust for wealth, and the lust for power are the two biggest illusions that plague us, for sure.

[Squinch]

11. This is what I think. I also think obscene unlimited wealth and the pursuit of obscene unlimited

wealth has a lot to do with our tax system.

The highest tax levels should be nearly 100%. When you have your first hundred million, you really don't need another million.

[Oldem]

18. People who seek a second four hundred million

have likely lost all democratic (small d) impulse. "It's not about us; it's about me." I'd have no compunction about taxing the hell out of them to take care of "the least of these." There are exceptions, as there are to everything. According to Wikipedia, the (Warren) Buffet Foundation gave $17.6 million to causes of its own choosing in 1999. Buffet has organized a group of super-rich people, including Bill and Melinda Gates, who have pledged to give away large percentages of their money--some of them up to half of it. These people still have a soul. I'd be in favor of giving the 1% a choice: pay the government or give a lot of your money to worthy causes.

[PirateRo]

8. The author you want is Martin ford

The book is lights in the tunnel.

It is based on the book The singularity is near by Kurzweil.

The issue of the pandemic or economy or walls or Mexicans or union membership. These are all distractions.

The build of a global, automatic, intelligent infrastructure is on the way. UBi will be a solution to just get most uneducated people out of the way. Eventually, the infrastructure will outperform the most educated among us. All our lives wii improve immeasurable, but there are factions that will try to stop or postpone the inevitable. They will try and fail to interfere and while they will, in the end, be inconsequential, they will cause unnecessary pain.

Enjoy!

[PatrickforO]

13. Martin Ford indeed. Thanks! n/t

[PirateRo]

15. Welkies :)

You may be able to find an older version of the book in pdf online.

Remember, with great power comes great responsibility.

[Squinch]

12. Great questions. After your research, would you let us know what your conclusions are?

[PatrickforO]

14. Will do.

[Squinch]

16. Such an interesting discussion, but I don't have any insights about what will happen. I'm excited

to hear what you find.

Thanks!

[RainCaster]

17. Jobs will look quite different - in some industries

I work in high tech, so I see a lot of changes coming sooner than most.

One of the things I do is help organize trade shows, and since the pandemic began, those have gone "virtual". They started out as rather disappointing, but the user experience has improved dramatically over the past year. We are still planning on all shows being virtual until at least October of 21,and in some cases March of 22. That's a lot of hotel room nights gone forever. Two groups attend these shows - marketing and engineering. The marketing folks are quite vocal about the value of face to face communication, while engineers are more comfortable with the reduced travel budget that virtual shows offer.

Hiring has changed, and probably permanently. Interviews are done remotely now. It's safer, easier to schedule, and just as effective. Many workers are hired without ever coming to the office. A laptop is shipped and the new employee starts remotely.

The idea of an exodus of the cities by tech workers is real, but limiting. While affordable housing is a big draw for many, there are limits. Most rural areas have very slow internet access, and remote workers need a reliable high-speed internet connection. That will limit the areas that workers can move to. A potential game changer there are the coming low orbit satellite constellations that are being built for wireless internet access.

Working schedules are changing for many as larger companies become global in nature. I have early morning meetings with people in Europe, and after dinner meetings with co-workers in Asia. To be fair, I've been doing this since the late 90s. But there are far more companies now that have such structures.

[BComplex]

21. "the coming low orbit satellite constellations that are being built for wireless internet access"

RainCaster, do you know if these satellites will be available for cell service as well? There are remote areas where cell service is atrocious.

[RainCaster]

22. Not on current cell technology

Different frequencies. However, you can install your own femtocell and connect that to the internet over the satellite network.
This is the big thing the Elon Musk is doing with SpaceX, and there is at least one other firm in this space

[BComplex]

23. Thanks for the info!

[jalan48]

19. I think climate change is the biggest issue facing humanity. Unlimited growth is not sustainable

for our physical environment. An economy based on unlimited growth just won't continue to work as it has in the past which is why we see so much disinformation coming from corporations whose survival is based on it. Unfortunately, I think our economy will continue to look like the current only with more severe problems as the environment and our capitalist system collide.

[MagickMuffin]

20. I did think the reason there was not much concern about the deadly pandemic

that it was by design. That the more people dying was an opportunity for the wealthy people would buy up the real estate properties, and also if people were evicted because they couldn't pay their mortgage.


I attend some real estate investor seminars and they LOVE this. They gushed about the housing market crash and how they swooped in and took advantage of the situation. It kinda made me feel creepy like I was hanging around vultures.


I know years ago the hospital I was born in was not longer viable. I called the city of Fort Worth to see if they would purchase the building and use it for the homeless. I mean every room already has the plumbing facilities. The Nurse's stations could be turned into resource services to help those you need extra care. Cafeteria check, Chapel check, Laundry check, etc etc

I was told that there was no way they could do this. The hospital was demolished and the county hospital built another building there.


I can't help much more than this. But good luck on your endeavors!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

24. Robots and 3D printers in every closet.