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Sat Dec 26, 2020, 06:55 PM

Why 'Pivot Counties' That Stuck With Trump May Be a Warning for Democrats

New York Times

Lawn signs, everyone agrees, don’t vote. But they proved to be an accurate omen in Winona County, Minn. — more reliable than the haywire polling of 2020 or the big crowds for President Trump.

“This year, we couldn’t keep up, we constantly had to get more Biden yard signs,” said Caitlin Nicholson, the Democratic chair in the county, which is in southeastern Minnesota, bordering Wisconsin.

Winona County was one of 206 “pivot counties” that mesmerized campaign analysts and reporters after the 2016 election by voting for Mr. Trump after having twice voted for President Barack Obama. Election obsessives sought to know: Who were these voters who had flip-flopped so dramatically?

This year, Winona County pivoted again, to President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. It was one of 25 Obama-Trump counties nationwide that returned to the Democratic fold, according to Ballotpedia, a site that analyzes election data.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 07:05 PM

1. Local economics

 

has been the determining factors in Southeastern Minnesota for decades as to which party will win out.

What will be the change agent in the next two year cycle is,how Economic Stimulus packages are tailored toward persons with incomes under 75k. And if Vilsack can pull off a hefty Export Commodity Program.

To many decades of not rolling up the sleeves and pounding on doors in Rural Areas is cutting our Dem foot print into a dust print.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 07:09 PM

2. I would love to see a NYT article on places that flipped to the Democrats viewed as a "warning" to

Republicans but I won't hold my breath.

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Response to catbyte (Reply #2)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 07:12 PM

3. Arizona

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia are bound to have some.

But it's the nature of Democratic politics that we're always looking to improve things, that we are more inclined to look for warning signs in general.

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Response to Bucky (Reply #3)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 07:15 PM

4. It just seems like the New York Times will publish any article that hints that Democrats are

"in trouble" or "in disarray" or some such calamity.

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Response to catbyte (Reply #4)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 07:17 PM

5. Oh don't be one of those people

I hear as much from my right of center friends about the New York Times's liberal bias.

They really do just cover the news.

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Response to Bucky (Reply #5)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 10:01 PM

11. I guess I am one of "those people" because I remember the hatchet job they did on Hillary

in 2016. They didn't "just report the news."

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Response to catbyte (Reply #4)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 07:20 PM

7. This was just an unusual year

Infrequent voters, but Trump cultists, came out strongly to vote. In addition, garden variety Rs who hated Trump came out to vote and then voted for Rs down ballot.

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Response to Bucky (Reply #3)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 08:28 PM

9. Part of the "nature of Democratic politics"...

...is that we're also more diverse and have more open policy disagreements, so it's pretty predictable that people of every faction will seize upon evidence that would indicate that we're doooooooooooomed if their own viewpoint doesn't prevail. That runs the gamut from moderates who insist that "defund the police" singlehandedly cost us the Senate to progressives who blame our down-ticket woes on not embracing M4A and the Green New Deal. So it isn't just some overall matter of "looking to improve things" (although that isn't absent), but of each of many sides trying to push their own as the solution.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 07:19 PM

6. These are the people that believed

Hillary Clinton was the mastermind of an international child sex slave operation who drinks the blood of dead babies. I don't know what can be done about those people, and I'm not going to waste much time and effort thinking about it.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 07:45 PM

8. Remind me again why we have to cater to people like this?

It's not as though they gave a flying fuck about us these past four years. Plus, both times we outnumber them.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 09:33 PM

10. I thought Trump would do worse than he did here in Indiana

based on the huge drop in yard signs I saw from 2016 to 2020. But we still went for him by almost 20 points. Ughh.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 10:05 PM

12. Not complicated. 2008 was about the bad economy and war, by 2016 the economy had improved

but the right-wing media bubble told them it hadn't. Trump ran as an angry anti-establishment populist, popular that year. That election was all about Hillary. She was evil, corrupt, killed everybody and ate babies, whatever. 2020 they couldn't do that to Biden as successfully so the election was about Trump. That's all.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 10:26 PM

13. I believe that we already know the answer.

One has to only look at the fact that college educated people went heavily for Biden. Cities and their suburbs are growing, with new types of modern jobs being created in them. Exburbs are growing also, but not as face as their suburban cousins that are closer in to cities, exburbs eventually get absorbed by suburbs. Rural areas and smaller towns have a high concentration of people that don’t have a high level of education, today’s economy is brutal for those people.

The question is what do we do about the situation? If you g people are pulled from rural areas and small towns to get advanced educations either in college or Trade Schools, they simply won’t return to those rural areas and small towns to live unless they are incentivized to do do. Private business has no reason to incentivize people that have gotten trained, it is simpler to just employ those people in the cities and suburbs where companies have operations, since all the resources for young people are already in place in more populated areas and don’t have to be created or rebuilt. The government can incentivize Doctors and Nurses from rural areas and small towns to return to those areas, but that entails permanent support to insure that hospitals and related resources get money to stay open.

Already we are seeing that the vast majority of Americans live in or near prosperous cities and suburbs. What I predict will likely happen is that the prosperous areas will contain even more people in two decades and rural areas will be populated, thinly, by people working for corporate farms or in extraction industries (mining, drilling, ect). The future is why republican politicians are working so hard to blunt the voting power of cities and their suburbs.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2020, 10:50 PM

14. Democrats need to start going to middle of nowhere places.

I know that COVID made it difficult this year. But you know why conservatives keep winning places like Liberal, Kansas, and Butte, Montana, and Saginaw, Michigan, and Stevens Point, Wisconsin? They go there. If Democrats want to build support, they got to start going to these places. I look at the election returns exit polling and I think "no wonder rural conservatives are afraid of big city liberals".

It's seriously like an 8th grade dance - we're split down the middle and one side is afraid of the other. We need to start crossing over the dreaded line.

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