So, about that CNN Snap Poll

[ProSense]

So, about that CNN Snap Poll

by TheSilverMonkey

So, I was looking at the crosstabs on CNN's snap poll of "registered Americans" after the debate claiming Romney won the debate 69-25. They start on page 8:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/03/top12.pdf

Notice anything funny? According to the breakout, all the people surveyed are white, 50+, and from the South. Are they being serious with this? I know the media loves a horserace, and I'll admit Obama was less passionate and shouty than Mitt, but it's pretty hard not to ascribe a motive to their selection process.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/04/1139682/-So-about-that-CNN-Snap-Poll

Holy shit!

Be sure to read the comments for some other interesting points.

Another that sticks out is favorables for the sample: Romney's pre-debate favorable rating is 54 percent and Obama's is 49 percent.

Relatively unchanged post debate, but there isn't a poll out there that has Romney with a higher approval than Obama. Nor is there a poll with Romney's approval above 50 percent.

CNN's recent poll favorable/unfavorable

Obama 52/48 LV, 53/47 RV

Romney 49/50 LV, 48/50 RV

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/01/rel11a.pdf

The aggregate approval for Romney is 43 percent.

I still think there is a lot of disappointment in the "win" column, but it seems the sample was also skewed.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/mitt-romney-favorability

[BainsBane]

1. Those snap polls are BS

And who won the debate isn't the relevant metric. We'll be able to see whether Romney won over any voters in polls that come out over the next week.

[spanone]

2. knr...poll is based on '430 americans'

[Jennicut]

3. Well, obviously!

They couldn't get the slam dunk Romney win they wanted (notice that CBS's #'s were different and included undecideds) so they had to do some fudging somewhere.

[ProSense]

11. Yeah,

except for these snap polls, most of the buzz is ridiculing Mitt.

[Scootaloo]

4. Been calling it for a week now, as have many others

Romney "wins" the first debate, according ot the media. This is purely a dramatic device, ginned up to inject a little tension into the last stretch of the race, "Oh! could Romney make a comeback? Will the president falter? STAY TUNED FOR A WORD FROM OUR SPONSOR!"

Biden will eat Ryan alive and shit him out as charcoal briquettes, the town hall will likely end up being a "tossup" according to the media and then Obama will be announced to have smashed Mitten's face into the floor at the foreign policy debate.

This is basically the political equivalent of professional wrestling; the names of the characters change, but the characters and their stories stay more or less the same.

[susanna]

5. They will get their close race...count on it, whether it be real or manufactured. n/t

[Comrade_McKenzie]

6. Result would've been the same no matter what happened...

All the media outlets had their propaganda in place for whatever outcome.

The only channel that was in shock was MSNBC.

[Tx4obama]

7. In my opinion it is a GOOD thing that folks think Romney won this first debate tonight, because ...

Now the GOP big money guys will still be wasting their money on Romney instead of dumping him tomorrow and spending their money on the down ticket candidates.

We have a VP debate next and then two more Obama debates.

My money is on Obama for a win in the next two, and a November 6th win too

[ProSense]

10. Fine by me.

Mitt enters the next few days with a big head and nothing to back it up.

What's he going to do: repeat that he wants to kill Big Bird?

[struggle4progress]

8. 50+ urban and suburban college-educated non-liberal white Southerners

believe Romney won the debate!

Unfavorable views of Obama in this representative demographic plunged from 50% before the debate to 49% after!

Favorable views of Romney in this representative demographic soared from 54% before the debate to 56% after!

The poll-watching habit seems to be about as healthful as mainlining speedball

[abumbyanyothername]

9. Either the cross-tabs are all messed up

or the poll is worthless.

This group is not a representative sample of the electorate.

At all.

[TrollBuster9090]

12. Hahah! I love the irony. All that time the GOP whined that they were being sucker punched by

bad sampling with opinion polls, and how that will unfairly SHAPE opinions rather than report them? That's what just happened to US, for REAL.

Yes, snap polls are bullshit. It wouldn't be a problem, except that people believe them. The "some people are saying..." meme is an effective means of SHAPING public opinion. THEY KNOW this. That's why they BUILT the Right Wing Echo Chamber in the FIRST place.


And, about the poll sample. CNN is based in the business district of Atlanta Georgia, so I'm guessing their 'snap poll' was conducted by just walking outside and grabbing the first 50 people off the street. That would definitely give you a sample that's white, over 50, and Southern. In fact, when you walk outside CNN headquarters in Atlanta and grab 50 people off the street at random, there's about a 1 in 3 chance that your sample will contain NEWT GINGRICH!

[ProSense]

13. "Yes, snap polls are bullshit. It wouldn't be a problem, except that people believe them."

Snap polls are bullshit, but bullshit snap polls are often called out.

Irony: It's not just the uninformed declaring Romney the winner. People who know snap polls are bullshit, who know Romney was spewing bullshit are willingly accepting that bullshit wins the day.

People are willing to overlook substance because Romney walked onto the stages and said any damn thing, rudely interrupting everyone and losing his cool when called on it.

[grantcart]

14. and another thing about it is the second there is another poll no one will remember this one.

[hughee99]

15. self delete. n/t