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Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:02 PM

Great news AZ just had a 5000 vote dump (or I guess you call it a "drop")

and it went 50/50 so Joe still has almost 13,000 lead with 35,000 to go

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#


AZ isnt over till it is over and winning it takes the narrative away from traitor to use against the nation.

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Reply Great news AZ just had a 5000 vote dump (or I guess you call it a "drop") (Original post)
Eliot Rosewater Nov 2020 OP
SheltieLover Nov 2020 #1
Chichiri Nov 2020 #2
Eliot Rosewater Nov 2020 #3
Chichiri Nov 2020 #5
Hermit-The-Prog Nov 2020 #22
Silent3 Nov 2020 #26
LisaL Nov 2020 #27
TimeToGo Nov 2020 #31
LisaL Nov 2020 #9
aggiesal Nov 2020 #34
still_one Nov 2020 #4
Roland99 Nov 2020 #6
triron Nov 2020 #24
Roland99 Nov 2020 #25
triron Nov 2020 #30
mucifer Nov 2020 #7
LisaL Nov 2020 #8
Statistical Nov 2020 #10
CincyDem Nov 2020 #15
triron Nov 2020 #11
oswaldactedalone Nov 2020 #12
triron Nov 2020 #13
marybourg Nov 2020 #14
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #16
marybourg Nov 2020 #17
Dem2 Nov 2020 #18
LisaL Nov 2020 #19
Dem2 Nov 2020 #20
triron Nov 2020 #23
oswaldactedalone Nov 2020 #21
Demsrule86 Nov 2020 #28
Cha Nov 2020 #29
USALiberal Nov 2020 #32
ancianita Nov 2020 #33
GulfCoast66 Nov 2020 #35
ancianita Nov 2020 #41
LisaL Nov 2020 #50
ancianita Nov 2020 #52
Eliot Rosewater Nov 2020 #36
ancianita Nov 2020 #39
aggiesal Nov 2020 #40
ancianita Nov 2020 #42
triron Nov 2020 #37
Eliot Rosewater Nov 2020 #38
ancianita Nov 2020 #43
Dem2 Nov 2020 #44
oswaldactedalone Nov 2020 #45
Eliot Rosewater Nov 2020 #47
ancianita Nov 2020 #46
Eliot Rosewater Nov 2020 #48
ancianita Nov 2020 #49
greenjar_01 Nov 2020 #51
LisaL Nov 2020 #53
IsItJustMe Nov 2020 #56
ancianita Nov 2020 #54
Catherine Vincent Nov 2020 #55

Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:03 PM

1. Ty, Eliot!

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:03 PM

2. Why isn't CNN calling AZ? What are they waiting for?

Do they anticipate a recount?

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:04 PM

3. Still not over...i watch this all day long...nerve wracking

I anticipate anything is possible so I am not going to relax until AZ is in the books.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:10 PM

5. I'm satisfied we'll win, but not satisfied...

that no one but AP and the Fascist Channel are calling it.

(By the way, if any lurking repubs read this, I'll concede that the Fascist Channel is taking steps, baby steps but steps, toward not being fascist. But you need to take charge and call for them to be conservative without being fascist.)

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:02 PM

22. FOX is the Fascist Oligarch eXtremists network -- promoting the agenda of sociopathic billionaires

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:18 PM

26. States are called all the time when they aren't done counting

In fact, that's how it's normally done. A state is called when there's low to no chance of the outstanding vote changing who wins.

AZ (and GA) are there already. Time to call 'em!

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Response to Silent3 (Reply #26)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:19 PM

27. Biden's lead in AZ is small and it keeps going down.

It's less than 0.5 % difference. Nobody is going to call it until they finish counting.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #27)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:00 PM

31. Well

Biden is ahead by 13000 votes. Iím pretty sure states were called for Trump in 16 with that. Mich for instance.

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:17 PM

9. Why would CNN call it when it's that close?

And what do you think calling it is going to accomplish?

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Response to LisaL (Reply #9)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:27 PM

34. I would like to see Biden get over 300 EV's ...

If Biden gets both AZ and GA, he will have the exact number of EV's that
Pendejo45 had in 2016.
Then we can use Pendejo45's words against him, when he said he won a landslide.

The sooner the better.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:10 PM

4. I am pretty confident Biden will take Arizona.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:10 PM

6. trump needs 68.3% of the remaining 35,599 votes

HA!

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #6)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:13 PM

24. No way.

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Response to triron (Reply #24)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:14 PM

25. "Way"

sorry...fell into a Wayne's World vibe

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #25)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:37 PM

30. I remember those days well.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:14 PM

7. are they gonna do a recount? Doesn't seem close enough

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Response to mucifer (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:16 PM

8. AZ doesn't do recounts unless the difference is several hundreds ballots.

NT

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:17 PM

10. Yeah 50/50 not enough for dumpy. Every time him misses the threshold it makes it higher.

He needs a 70/30 split now which is very unlikely. Not impossible but like 50 to 1 unlikely.

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Response to Statistical (Reply #10)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:37 PM

15. Heading to 75/25. Never gonna happen. n/t

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:24 PM

11. AZ sos site says just over 40 K left.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:24 PM

12. That vote dump was from Pima County

The most liberal county in AZ. The race will tighten but Joe should pull it out by about 5K votes.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:29 PM

13. We will know much more after the Maricopa dump tonite.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:29 PM

14. 50/50 from Pima County is not very encouraging.

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Response to marybourg (Reply #14)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:41 PM

16. It's fine all the dumps the last few days have favored Trump

But they've been under 60% Dump damn near every time.

As you probably know these are mail-in ballots that were dropped off at polling places/dropboxes on the day of election itself. So you got the GOPpers that were convinced by Trump not to use mail-in (but still used their mail-in ballots) and to vote ON election day ... but that's offset by the Dems who wanted to use mail-in ballots ... but didn't trust the mail, and lagged until election day.

Every dump has been 40-50% Biden for days. Trump needs like 70% of everything left.

Not gonna happen.

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #16)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:43 PM

17. Thanx. Appreciate the reassurance.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:43 PM

18. 92% Pima, 8% Yavapai

According to our favorite scraper site.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #18)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:45 PM

19. Is Yavapai red?

NT

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Response to LisaL (Reply #19)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:48 PM

20. 64-35 Trump according to CNN

So, yes. Likely kept Biden from getting more than the 50.2% that he got from that dump.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #20)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:10 PM

23. For sure!

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Response to LisaL (Reply #19)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 08:58 PM

21. Yavapai is red but it's a small county

and all their vote is counted.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:21 PM

28. Good news Eliot. K&R

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 09:26 PM

29. TY!

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:11 PM

32. Thanks for keeping us up to date on AZ!!!!!!!!!!! nt

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:22 PM

33. Let's not assume. These recounts across states could get 45 into a hail mary position.

The recounts worry me. Please tell me I'm wrong.

I'm worried about a technical knockout across 4 states' recounts.

Trump's lawyers are demanding recounts in all battlegrounds.

Biden is outside the recount zone in AZ (12,828), PA, (51,969) and MI (146,123)
but recounts will go ahead in GA (14,089) and WI (20,583).

45 needs 53 to get to 270, and will have to win 4:
one more than than these votes in WI (20,583), AZ (12,828), GA (14,089), AND MI (146,123) before certification Dec 14.

If he can't get recounts, is it because the time's too tight?

Is AZ's AG playing with the nation when he says it's "unlikely" that 45 could win AZ?

imo, 45's recounts HAVE to be electronically tampered with for the numbers to rise.

He could claim the Dems "cheated," when it was really his recounts.

Can any configuration of recounts get 45 to 269?


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Response to ancianita (Reply #33)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:32 PM

35. Arizona does not do recounts unless the margin in very tiny.

If the margin is that small then a recount is actually called for.

Candidates canít get them.

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Response to GulfCoast66 (Reply #35)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:43 PM

41. Well that's true of any of the battlegrounds, right?

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Response to LisaL (Reply #50)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:44 AM

52. Good to know. I'm relieved that 200 is the threshold. Thank you.

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Response to ancianita (Reply #33)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:33 PM

36. It's over...it really is...and that is ME saying it...

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #36)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:40 PM

39. Haha love ya. Sorry, not even you can convince me with 33 days out 'til the certification deadline.

I'm getting cheer leading, which I appreciate.

But I'm asking for logic, something that outthinks the 45 fight machinery.

Is the Bob Bauer team in these recount states? I'm not reading anything about that.
Maybe because media aren't allowed around sausage making.

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Response to ancianita (Reply #33)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:42 PM

40. Because Nevada went for Biden ...

Pendejo45 would literally have to win PA, MI, GA, NC, AZ
As you stated, AZ, PA & MI are outside the recounts.
Even if Biden loses GA, WI, MI, NC & AZ, Biden really only needs ONE state (PA) to win it all.

Pendejo45 is in a world of hurt. He would have to run the table.

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Response to aggiesal (Reply #40)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:45 PM

42. By my count, he needs only AZ, GA, MI and WI. PA's totally out by law.

Okay. As long as there's no possible way he gets to 269.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:34 PM

37. Big Maricopa dump coming up (maybe in 1/2 hr)

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Response to triron (Reply #37)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:36 PM

38. Jesus, nerve WRACKING

It is over number wise regardless, but when you have a violent fascist in power he could use a turnaround here to cause much more trouble than we already have.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #38)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 10:47 PM

43. Yeah! It is! Good news shouldn't be nerve wracking, should it!

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Response to triron (Reply #37)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 11:28 PM

44. Massive nearly 13k dump

12,845 Biden 45.4% / 54.6% Trump Trump is averaging 55.0% Trump needs 76.3%

Lead is down to 11,635 but Trumps odds of winning just went WAY down as he needs >76% from here on in...

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 11:39 PM

45. Excellent news from the Maricopa vote dump

Pretty much sews up AZ for Biden. Nearly half of the remaining vote is from Pima and while the website says there are 24,738 votes left to count across the state, it could be considerably less as there are 2727 ballots waiting for signature verification, which at this late date means that those votes won't count. Also, there are 18,000 provisionals left to review and some percentage of them won't be counted. Joe's got AZ.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #45)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:15 AM

47. Yep

Hallelujah

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Wed Nov 11, 2020, 11:51 PM

46. Right now Biden has dropped from 12,828 yesterday to 11,635 today.

Biden's has been a steady drop.

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Response to ancianita (Reply #46)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:16 AM

48. No he's got this, there's a reason they called it Way back when

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #48)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:28 AM

49. As long as "he's got this" doesn't put him in the recount zone. That's all I want.

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Response to ancianita (Reply #49)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:41 AM

51. Arizona only recounts in the few hundreds as a margin

Which is more sensible than other states, since no modern-day recount has ever shifted a vote more than a few hundred or very low thousand at most.

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #51)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:50 AM

53. GA didn't have to recount the race.

They don't have automatic recounts. Trump could have asked for a recount after votes were certfied.
GA SOS decided to order a recount, which he calls an audit, since GA doesn't have automatic recounts. And not just any recount, a hand recount.
I personally have no doubt this is done to appease Trumpers.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #53)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 01:16 AM

56. That is one reason I am sure

and another reason I think is that GA has completely changed all of their voting machines out this year for a different system. They may have done a recount regardless, just to fine tune their new system. Killing two birds with one stone, so to speak. I have seen no mention of this, but it makes sense to me anyway.

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #51)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:50 AM

54. Great. I'm feeling better about AZ.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Thu Nov 12, 2020, 01:15 AM

55. CNN hasn't called AZ for Biden though today a couple of outlets did

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