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Algernon Moncrieff

(5,780 posts)
Mon Nov 9, 2020, 03:18 PM Nov 2020

Opinions Trump did far worse in the election than we should have expected

WaPo via MSN

But the truth is that Trump did far worse in last week’s election than he should have, and that his reelection campaign was a historic failure. Incumbency is a far greater advantage, this year, than it has been made out to be. And during an ongoing crisis, American voters tend to choose the devil they know over the one they don’t. It’s really hard to overstate the incumbent advantage in U.S. politics. In most cases, incumbent presidents not only win reelection, but also substantially increase their popular-vote margin. Twenty-one American presidents have served a second term. Among these, only three were unable to grow their vote share significantly in their second election. Between their first and second elections, Thomas Jefferson, Ulysses S. Grant and Ronald Reagan doubled their popular-vote margins over their opponents. Franklin D. Roosevelt improved his by 80 percent, and Bill Clinton by 50 percent.

Four out of the five biggest landslide elections in the 20th century were won by first-term incumbents: Richard M. Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984, Roosevelt in 1936 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956. Five of the most decisive electoral college landslides across U.S. history — setting aside George Washington’s, as he had no opponents — also have been won by incumbents: Jefferson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Nixon, Reagan and Abraham Lincoln.

The presidential historian Allan Lichtman told NPR that this is because incumbents have “name recognition, national attention, fundraising and campaign bases, control over the instruments of government, successful campaign experience” and the benefit of voters’ “risk aversion.” This can manifest as an aversion to any new risk over substantial risks people are already experiencing. Incumbents can win in recessions. Incumbents can win when lots of Americans are dying. Incumbents win even during periods of exceptionally low American satisfaction with the state of the nation. Some incumbents win reelection handily during periods of national crisis or scandal — think George W. Bush in 2004 against the backdrop of the faltering Iraq War and his top weapons inspector’s admission that Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction.

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Opinions Trump did far worse in the election than we should have expected (Original Post) Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2020 OP
Trump abused his power to the max RAB910 Nov 2020 #1
Great read... Spazito Nov 2020 #2
W didn't win handedly dsc Nov 2020 #3
Makes Donny just that much more of a FAILURE Blue Owl Nov 2020 #4
K&R, ... and Red Don text book cheated early and often from other countries to US mail system uponit7771 Nov 2020 #5
I wonder if this is playing out in the man on the street responses kurtcagle Nov 2020 #6
K&R for visibility. crickets Nov 2020 #7
Preach! In It to Win It Nov 2020 #8

RAB910

(3,445 posts)
1. Trump abused his power to the max
Mon Nov 9, 2020, 03:21 PM
Nov 2020

Putting his name on our tax dollar checks that were sent out

He and his staff regularly abusing the Hatch act

Trump taking credit for anything good Covid related

Trump taking credit for the Obama economy

Trump taking tax dollars (tariffs) and bribing farmers with it

dsc

(52,129 posts)
3. W didn't win handedly
Mon Nov 9, 2020, 03:25 PM
Nov 2020

he had a fairly narrow popular vote majority and his EV majority was within the spread of Ohio which he narrowly won.

kurtcagle

(1,601 posts)
6. I wonder if this is playing out in the man on the street responses
Mon Nov 9, 2020, 03:30 PM
Nov 2020

There have been Trumpist protests about the election, but they are surprisingly anemic, given the closeness of the race and the supposedly rabid base. Gives me hope that Trump's attempts at ginning up the posse will come to naught.

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