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Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:27 PM

How much of our win can be contributed to Jo Jorgensen?

I'm looking at the Decision Desk HQ map and it looks like he played as much of a spoiler this year as Jill Stein did in 2016.

20 replies, 1053 views

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Reply How much of our win can be contributed to Jo Jorgensen? (Original post)
Revanchist Nov 2020 OP
kimbutgar Nov 2020 #1
LisaL Nov 2020 #7
kimbutgar Nov 2020 #10
bullimiami Nov 2020 #2
Revanchist Nov 2020 #11
bullimiami Nov 2020 #13
regnaD kciN Nov 2020 #3
The Velveteen Ocelot Nov 2020 #4
LisaL Nov 2020 #9
question everything Nov 2020 #19
TwilightZone Nov 2020 #5
we can do it Nov 2020 #6
whistler162 Nov 2020 #8
relayerbob Nov 2020 #12
LisaL Nov 2020 #15
Silent3 Nov 2020 #14
dsc Nov 2020 #16
Politicub Nov 2020 #17
dustyscamp Nov 2020 #18
StevieM Nov 2020 #20

Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:28 PM

1. I never even heard of him until saw him on our absentee ballot.

Jill Stein 2.0 fail

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Response to kimbutgar (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:30 PM

7. She is a woman.

NT

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Response to LisaL (Reply #7)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:32 PM

10. My bad

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:29 PM

2. Jo Jorgensen. She. Another woman spoiler.

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Response to bullimiami (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:32 PM

11. Yeah, my bad

I updated the OP I never heard of her till I was looking at the results

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Response to Revanchist (Reply #11)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:35 PM

13. I didnt realize her VP was named Spike. If we had ranked choice that would have been my #2.

Just for Spikes sake.

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:30 PM

3. Possibly more...

Stein only came in FOURTH in the race, behind Clinton, Trump, and conservative Gary Johnson. If the race had been forcibly reduced to the two major-party nominees, itís likely Trump would have picked up a lot more votes than HRC would have.

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:30 PM

4. Who?

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:32 PM

9. Libertarian candidate.

She got ~ 1 % of vote in key states, where difference between Trump and Biden is less than 1 %.

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #4)

Mon Nov 9, 2020, 02:35 PM

19. Came third in MN - 35,000 votes

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:30 PM

5. Probably not as much as it might appear.

From what I've seen, many were never-Trumpers who couldn't quite pull the lever for Biden, but still wanted to register protest votes against Trump. Without Jorgensen, those votes may not have ended up for Trump.

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:30 PM

6. It's Jo and she is a woman.

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:31 PM

8. Nah... Howie Hawkins did

two people with Syracuse NY ties ran for President this time. The perpetual losing candidate Howie Hawkins and Prez-Elect Joe Biden.

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:32 PM

12. Nah, she got far less than the Libertarians last time

These voters were people who would never vote for either party to begin with. The ones who voted for here were irrelevant either way.

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Response to relayerbob (Reply #12)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:42 PM

15. Well, if she gets 60,000 and our margin of victory is 10,000, it certainly isn't negligible.

I don't know if her voters would have stayed home or voted for Trump if she wasn't in the race, but it's certainly is an interesting question.

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:41 PM

14. Almost all of her votes took away from Trump, not Biden...

...so yes, in some of the really tight races, crucially PA, and also AZ and GA, the Jorgensen vote was bigger than the gap between Biden and Trump, so the Jorgensen effect is at least worth considering.

Jorgensen was, I think, the most popular Never-Trump vote for those who couldn't quite bring themselves to go all the way over to Biden. It's hard to know, however, how many of those people simply wouldn't have voted at all, or would have voted for a different third-party/write-in, instead of voting for Trump.

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:46 PM

16. Honestly, probably none

Biden is at or above 50 in all but WI, PA, GA, and AZ. And there is still vote to count in WI and PA which will likely put him over 50%. If that happens then he would have won without her for absolutely sure. He is not under 49 in either GA or AZ and could well be over 50 when all is counted in those too but admittedly that is unlikely but Trump would have had to get close to all of her vote in those states for her to have spoiled and that is honestly very unlikely to say the least.

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:46 PM

17. None, as far as I can tell

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 10:48 PM

18. The Right right now

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Response to Revanchist (Original post)

Mon Nov 9, 2020, 02:47 PM

20. In 2016 pre-election polling indicated that Gary Johnson was taking more votes from HRC than Trump.

Many voters simply want to vote for a 3rd party candidate and the libertarians are a somewhat familiar brand, who are on the ballot in 50 states. And they are usually higher on the ballot than other 3rd party candidates, so they are the first option offered.

A higher percentage of Stein voters would have picked Clinton, if they voted at all, than the percentage of Johnson voters who would have chosen Clinton. But Johnson likely took more votes away from her than Stein did, and did more to affect her chances of winning.

Not that I blame either one of them. James Comey dominated the 2016 election from start to finish. He did more to hurt her than all other factors put together.

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