So much for the "'OMG, the race is tightening!' narrative."

[ProSense]

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Obama continues to hold modest lead as race enters October

by Steve Singiser

As expected, Monday brought a poll-a-palooza, as the accumulated total of weekend polls and Monday poll releases brought the final count of polls today to 51 polls, among the highest totals of the campaign thus far.

Taken as a whole, the Monday polls present something of a "mixed bag", though the press has apparently settled on an "OMG, the race is tightening!" narrative.

This is one of those times when the press appears to be right, but is totally wrong, all at the same time. Poll watchers used to seeing Obama staked to a 4-6 point lead would probably be a touch surprised to see Obama now looking at a 2-4 point advantage.

However, a key component of understanding poll trends is getting a good look at who is doing the polling. And the bottom line on that: only one pollster (CNN/ORC) saw Mitt Romney move closer to President Obama by more than a single point.

More on that after the jump. But, first, on to the numbers:

<...>

Fact: Leaving aside that rather silly-looking Washington Times/Zogby poll (and...yes...I checked. This was one of their phone polls, not the interactive garbage), the average lead for Barack Obama in Monday's nine national polls was Obama +3.1 percent.

This is what has led no shortage of journos to declare today that the race for the White House is tightening between President Obama and Mitt Romney. But this is based more on what the "sense" of where the race was a week ago (when Obama led in a number of national polls by 4-7 points) rather than anything concrete.

To wit, let's look at today's polls, and how much they've change since the previous incarnation:

10/1/2012 National polling, compared to previous polls (poll release date in parentheses)

ABC/Washington Post: From Obama +1 to Obama +2 (9/11/12)
American Research Group: From Obama +2 to Obama +3 (9/21/12)
CNN/Opinion Research: From Obama +6 to Obama +3 (9/10/12)
Gallup Tracking: From Obama +2 to Obama +4 (9/24/12)+
GWU/Battleground/Politico: From Obama +3 to Obama +2 (9/24/12)
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: From Obama +6 to Obama +5 (9/26/12)+
Merriman River Group: Does Not Apply (First Poll of Cycle)
Rasmussen Tracking: From Obama +0 to Obama +3 (9/28/12)+
UPI/CVoter Tracking: From Obama +3 to Obama +3 (9/23/12)+

(+)--Tracking polls compared to most recent tracking poll with a totally unique sample, which means Rasmussen dates back three days, Ipsos-Reuters five days, and UPI/CVoter and Gallup seven days.

So, for those scoring at home (and pulling out Merriman River, which is making their first foray of the cycle into WH polling), Obama's current lead with these eight polls sits at 3.1 percent. BUT...and this is important...his previous lead with these same pollsters was: 2.9 percent.

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/01/1138147/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-Obama-continues-to-hold-modest-lead-as-race-enters-October

Facts. Liberal. Bias.

Mitt is getting blown away in state polls.

Poll: Obama Leads Romney By 10 Points In Michigan
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021447208

Poll shows Obama with 15-point lead in NH
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021447924

Romney's poll results in Massachusetts have gone from bad to worse. Trailing Obama by 30 pts
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021446918

[geckosfeet]

1. in at rec #1

on edit: damn - a typo in three word post

[lonestarnot]

2. Have anything on AZ yet?

[Tx4obama]

3. Here's a link to RCP latest polls list

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Friday, September 28 was the last Arizona poll on their list.

[lonestarnot]

5. Thank you!

[Blue Idaho]

4. The "Race is Tightening" fits the corporate media meme.

Who benefits if we have a real popular vote "horse race?" Obviously the people who sell political ad time get to charge more money per ad and the celebutants that host the political talking heads programs get a bump in their ratings and paychecks.

Please remember the popular vote has never elected a president in the modern era, it's all about the Electoral College - period.

It's no wonder the number of ordinary Americans who trust the M$M to deliver unbiased and accurate news is at an all time low. These idiots put profits ahead of patriotism.

[ProSense]

6. Quinnipiac: Obama up by 4 points

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1450439

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. The ARG Poll Has Romney ($) Garnering 23% Of The African American Vote (LOL)

That's only credible if they are LDS members. That shaves about a point off the president's lead.

[obamanut2012]

8. I sincerely doubt Romney will get 23% of the AA vote

I will be surprised if he gets 5%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. It's Clearly Incorrect. That's The Peril Of Relatively Small Sub Samples

.