AZ lead continues to weaken. %s are way too many for trump based on my early estimates

[Roland99]

Does anyone know how many ballots are yet to be counted? By my estimates, there are about 400k left. We'd need a minimum of a 43/57 split but the last few updates have been much higher for trump


AZ
Biden: 1,478,720
trump: 1,419,767
Other: 40,979

New Biden: 2,027
New trump: 4,543
New Other: 222

% New Biden: 29.84%
% New trump: 66.89%
% New Other: 3.27%

Diff: 58,953

[samnsara]

1. right after the 'speech' fox continued to stand by their prediction

[mvd]

2. That's a small dump

Can’t assume that high for all. I still don’t think AP would have called it without good info.

[marybourg]

3. It may-- or may not -- still be 430,000,

but we’re not getting much transparency from AZ.

[Roland99]

12. From this data guru/data scientist, about 415k

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

[marybourg]

17. That seems reasonable. I don't have his resources.

[crickets]

37. Oo, thanks for that link. nt

[Lucky Luciano]

4. Yes...I noticed the same. I'm a bit nervous for AZ.

[NYC Liberal]

5. Fox just reaffirmed their call for AZ.

We knew it was going to tighten a bit.

[roamer65]

6. We don't need AZ.

Especially if we get GA.

[Roland99]

16. yeah...PA is seemingly comfortable but, anything to really nail the lid on trump's chances

Esp if we can get over 300EV

No way he can litigate out of that!

[Renew Deal]

18. If we lose AZ before something else changes, Trump will claim 270.

[USALiberal]

7. Bookmarked

[regnaD kciN]

8. I think there were 350,000 as of last night...

...but they're in two distinct blocs. The first ones to be counted, which I'm pretty sure include the latest count, are late-arriving mail-ins, which were massively Republican by party affiliation. The remaining bloc are ballots that were dropped-off at polling stations on Election Day, and those are reportedly much more evenly split, with a lot of independents.

If Trump kept up the percentages of the most recent drop, he'd probably win, but it's unlikely further drops are going to be as favorable to him.

[XanaDUer2]

9. I like how you don't

capitalize trump

[Roland99]

14. heh...I've done that intentionally for a long time now :)

[Sedona]

10. AZ SOS Website says 100% votes are in

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

[Mariana]

15. Where does it say that?

I only see 100% Precincts Reporting, which is not the same thing.

[TwilightZone]

20. 100% precincts reporting means that they've received some votes from all districts

It does not mean 100% votes in.

[Quixote1818]

29. The other link says 100% of the votes of all precincts have reported

Maricopa 743 743 100.00% 1,792,313 2,595,272 69.06% 11/05/2020 9:24 AM





Precincts Reporting / Voter Turnout
County Precincts Reported Total Precincts Precincts Percent Ballots Cast Registered Voters Voter Turnout Last Reported
Apache 44 44 100.00% 21,310 51,906 41.05% 11/04/2020 11:51 AM
Cochise 49 49 100.00% 52,484 82,022 63.99% 11/05/2020 5:52 PM
Coconino 71 71 100.00% 66,348 90,669 73.18% 11/05/2020 3:57 PM
Gila 39 39 100.00% 25,797 34,001 75.87% 11/04/2020 12:20 AM
Graham 22 22 100.00% 15,111 19,851 76.12% 11/05/2020 12:48 PM
Greenlee 8 8 100.00% 3,723 4,866 76.51% 11/05/2020 12:46 PM
La Paz 11 11 100.00% 6,722 10,909 61.62% 11/03/2020 10:24 PM
Maricopa 743 743 100.00% 1,792,313 2,595,272 69.06% 11/05/2020 9:24 AM
Mohave 24 24 100.00% 100,455 135,180 74.31% 11/05/2020 5:13 PM
Navajo 14 14 100.00% 49,924 70,650 70.66% 11/05/2020 5:33 PM
Pima 249 249 100.00% 497,631 638,355 77.96% 11/05/2020 5:55 PM
Pinal 102 102 100.00% 150,162 248,874 60.34% 11/05/2020 4:06 PM
Santa Cruz 24 24 100.00% 18,357 29,963 61.27% 11/04/2020 12:12 AM
Yavapai 45 45 100.00% 140,116 165,361 84.73% 11/05/2020 5:36 PM
Yuma 44 44 100.00% 62,441 103,273 60.46% 11/05/2020 12:27 PM

[TwilightZone]

31. No, it doesn't.

The 100% in those numbers is the number of precincts reporting as clearly noted in the header. None of the numbers represent the percentage of votes in those precincts.

[Sedona]

30. Sorry! I got super excited about it.

[TwilightZone]

34. No worries.

It's confusing, especially with all of the data floating around.

I moved Maricopa County to NV earlier today. Imagine their surprise.

[Sedona]

36. I moved from Sedona to Atlanta

Imagine MY surprise!

[Thekaspervote]

11. A lot of the area left to be counted is the same area that gave Sinema her win in 18

Hopefully, the vote totals out of AZ will start shifting our way

[questionseverything]

13. Maybe we need to hand count these last ballots

So we can all see

Scanners can give false results occasionally

Would not hurt anything to double check

[Fahrenthold451]

19. I think that small drop was coconino

And if it was rural instead of Flag, don't worry about it.

[Roland99]

21. Ok...just got a big 28k update from AZ and it was a 46/51 split. Nice!

AZ
Biden: 1,494,263
trump: 1,437,716
Other: 41,821

New Biden: 13,045
New trump: 14,484
New Other: 818

% New Biden: 46.02%
% New trump: 51.10%
% New Other: 2.88%

Diff: 56,547

[kairos12]

22. Maskhole vile Trumpers in front of counting office screaming inanities.

[Historic NY]

23. DUH its the SOS site....

[link:https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0|]

[Roland99]

26. that doesn't show ballots remaining

[Historic NY]

27. By county is showing 100%

in

[Quixote1818]

32. That is what I am seeing too

Precincts Reporting / Voter Turnout
County Precincts Reported Total Precincts Precincts Percent Ballots Cast Registered Voters Voter Turnout Last Reported
Apache 44 44 100.00% 21,310 51,906 41.05% 11/04/2020 11:51 AM
Cochise 49 49 100.00% 52,484 82,022 63.99% 11/05/2020 5:52 PM
Coconino 71 71 100.00% 66,348 90,669 73.18% 11/05/2020 3:57 PM
Gila 39 39 100.00% 25,797 34,001 75.87% 11/04/2020 12:20 AM
Graham 22 22 100.00% 15,111 19,851 76.12% 11/05/2020 12:48 PM
Greenlee 8 8 100.00% 3,723 4,866 76.51% 11/05/2020 12:46 PM
La Paz 11 11 100.00% 6,722 10,909 61.62% 11/03/2020 10:24 PM
Maricopa 743 743 100.00% 1,792,313 2,595,272 69.06% 11/05/2020 9:24 AM
Mohave 24 24 100.00% 100,455 135,180 74.31% 11/05/2020 5:13 PM
Navajo 14 14 100.00% 49,924 70,650 70.66% 11/05/2020 5:33 PM
Pima 249 249 100.00% 497,631 638,355 77.96% 11/05/2020 5:55 PM
Pinal 102 102 100.00% 150,424 248,874 60.44% 11/05/2020 6:10 PM
Santa Cruz 24 24 100.00% 18,357 29,963 61.27% 11/04/2020 12:12 AM
Yavapai 45 45 100.00% 140,116 165,361 84.73% 11/05/2020 5:36 PM
Yuma 44 44 100.00% 62,441 103,273 60.46% 11/05/2020 12:27 PM

[TwilightZone]

33. No, it's the percentage of precincts that have reported.

That means that they've received *some* ballots from all districts. It does not mean they've received 100% of votes from all districts.

[Roland99]

35. those don't include the mail-in ballots

Perhaps they don't know which precinct applies to the ballot until it's processed

[Historic NY]

24. Az by county 100%

[link:https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0|

[DesertRat]

25. Watching our Phoenix news now. 440,000 votes left statewide

We could know the winner by Friday night. More numbers expected about 7 pm Arizona time (MST). Then they go home at 10:30, back at it tomorrow morning with an update about 10:00 am MST

[Historic NY]

28. Why the hell do they list it that way...