General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsALERT - Inaccuracies regarding PA Mail-In Ballots Outstanding
https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/joqegq/inaccuracies_regarding_pa_mailin_ballots/Politics
TL;DR - There are roughly 340,000 mail-in ballots remaining (NOT 550,000). Also, figures may be slightly out of date by the time I finish writing this up.
e/ since posting this the votesPA website has been updated to be consistent with the election returns website
The PA SOS stated there were roughly 550,000 mail-in ballots outstanding, a figure which she seems to have been taken from this website: https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx. However, these values are out of date. For example, it lists Butler County as having 30,000+ ballots left to count but Butler County has already reported all of its votes. Butler County has been finished since some time yesterday (at least 16 hours
Link to tweet
), but has not been updated even though other figures have been. There are many other examples such as Chester County, which is listed as having 40,000+ ballots left to count. However, Chester County has counted all or most of its mail in ballots. The figures seem more up to date at this website: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/#.
According to https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/# there are roughly 2.27M mail in ballots counted. Assuming the figure https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx has the correct number of mail-in ballots (a little over 2.6M), then current number of outstanding ballots is 340,000 (about 90,000 in Philly). This dramatically overstates Biden's potential lead, though it appears that he is still on track to take the lead.
Will need a 67/33 split from here on out and it will be a rather small lead. Likely less than 10k
......
More info:
Link to tweet
https://votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
coti
(4,612 posts)100-200k vote Biden victory some experts had been predicting.
So critical we get real numbers from our people in charge.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)I just updated the bad figure to the new accurate figure in another thread.
Much appreciated.
VMA131Marine
(4,136 posts)If he takes 70% of those votes he will end up with a lead around 30,000 votes.
A 75% share would give a final lead of 73,000 votes
mvd
(65,162 posts)I have seen the benchmarks being met so far, and that continues?
Roland99
(53,342 posts)mvd
(65,162 posts)Biden was so calm and that reassures me. I think he gets good updates on the data.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Big ones are Philly (we're good there...about 92k left)
Allegheny (Pittsburgh but on hold till tomorrow...about 36k)
Bucks - 25k
Cumberland - 32k
Lehigh - 34.5k
mvd
(65,162 posts)And fortunately we have been above 50% even in red counties.
Amishman
(5,554 posts)with that coming, getting 2 to 1 overall should be very doable.
VMA131Marine
(4,136 posts)Abnredleg
(669 posts)That need to be added to the absentee ballots. Thats where the discrepancy comes from.
triron
(21,984 posts)democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)Biden is losing the in-person vote in EVERY SINGLE COUNTY EXCEPT PHILADELPHIA. If some of the outstanding votes are in-person and are from anywhere but Philly, we may be screwed.
Abnredleg
(669 posts)democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)Still not great, because it means Biden will probably only get 50-60% of those instead of 80-90%.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Abnredleg
(669 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Even 75/25 give Biden ~ 50k vote win.
I'd love to see then margin close a bit quicker than it has today, though.
Sid
awesomerwb1
(4,265 posts)I'm exhausted.
Azathoth
(4,607 posts)First AZ, now PA.
BannonsLiver
(16,313 posts)The state has made clear whats left. Theres no reason to theorize on Reddit.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Azathoth
(4,607 posts)The longer we go with a 100K+ vote deficit, the more skeptical I become.
coti
(4,612 posts)playing a critical role.
Marius25
(3,213 posts)And it doesn't include all election day votes or provisionals which Sen. Casey said are 30k just from Philly.
It also doesn't mean there aren't more votes. They haven't reported all votes that have been counted yet. Sen. Casey said that number is higher than it appears. He expects Biden to win by about 100,000.
MakeTXBlue2020
(131 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)Marius25
(3,213 posts)of actual counting or an issue of reporting.
Biden is destroying Trump in PA right now, winning even red counties with 73% of mail ins. There is only a 78k lead for Trump now, and 85k votes are still to be counted in Philly which Biden leads by over 90%.
CNN just estimated around 300,000 ballots left to count. Biden is winning over 70% of them.
Abnredleg
(669 posts)That are not in the total. A lot of voters who requested absentee ballots decided to vote in person to ensure there vote is counted.