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Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:15 AM

GEORGIA - may come down to razor thin margins

Morning Joe is reporting there's ~25K ballots left to be counted, and the Con's lead is ~18K. Assuming 75% (18,750) of these ballots go to Joe, it remains to be seen if GA will be a win for Joe. My guess is he may eek out a verrrrrryy slim victory.

MSNBC also mentioned the results are expected to be announced by noon today.

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Reply GEORGIA - may come down to razor thin margins (Original post)
onetexan Nov 2020 OP
madaboutharry Nov 2020 #1
onetexan Nov 2020 #4
Light63 Nov 2020 #5
beachbumbob Nov 2020 #17
beachbumbob Nov 2020 #2
Nikki28 Nov 2020 #3
onetexan Nov 2020 #10
Phentex Nov 2020 #16
David__77 Nov 2020 #6
bdamomma Nov 2020 #7
peacebuzzard Nov 2020 #8
genxlib Nov 2020 #9
onetexan Nov 2020 #12
honest.abe Nov 2020 #11
onetexan Nov 2020 #13
honest.abe Nov 2020 #20
doubleplusgood Nov 2020 #26
honest.abe Nov 2020 #27
CottonBear Nov 2020 #14
FormerWIRepub Nov 2020 #15
TheFarseer Nov 2020 #18
BeerBarrelPolka Nov 2020 #19
honest.abe Nov 2020 #21
BeerBarrelPolka Nov 2020 #22
honest.abe Nov 2020 #23
BeerBarrelPolka Nov 2020 #24
OnDoutside Nov 2020 #25

Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:16 AM

1. They were saying it will come down to 4 digits.

A few thousand votes one way or the other. In Georgia. That is something.

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Response to madaboutharry (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:20 AM

4. Dear Lord i'm praying that is the case. I'm sure the Con will demand a recount.

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Response to madaboutharry (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:20 AM

5. There are 90,735 votes left to count

https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/with_90735_votes_out_officials_focused_on_getting_it_right

With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 10:15 p.m. today there are approximately 90,735 ballots still outstanding...

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Response to madaboutharry (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:49 AM

17. no doubt and we have zero idea on the number of provisional ballots AND people

 

have until Friday to fix issues with their mail in ballots as well. Another number we have No idea about or who is contacting these voters???

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:16 AM

2. there will thousands of provisional ballots left to counted as well

 

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:19 AM

3. I don't trust Georgia

after they stole the ticket from S.A. I think I read Trump called those governors.What do you think he discussed with them? I hope Biden get just enough to win in spite of vote suppression.I also hope we get the Senate seats.I am just not good at giving them my trust .I hope they prove me wrong.

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Response to Nikki28 (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:26 AM

10. Joe will win PA and once all the votes have been counted that will be the decisive game over, so GA

will be irrelevant. But completely agree w/ u re: Stacey's stolen election. I'm still furious about that race like i was when the election was stolen from Hillary. The silver lining is given the tremendous Dems turnout all of Stacey's hard work in GA to stop voter suppression has clearly paid off, and they now have a network of activists going forward. If the state is won by Joe that is the fruit of Stacey's & other local Dems amazing ground work. I'm hoping Joe will give Stacey a prominent role in his administration. I love her!

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Response to Nikki28 (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:43 AM

16. Me either and I live here!

But at least it's not a complete red disaster. If it stays red, people here will blast the state and everything that goes with it. But I will still see it as purple. We are chipping away at some rural areas. We have to keep doing that.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:23 AM

6. Sounds like around 50,000 are needed to win by a few thousand.

I hope that the estimate of 25k is off and low.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:24 AM

7. Just continue

counting votes please.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:25 AM

8. thanks for this; this noon announcement will be interesting. nt

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:26 AM

9. Your math doesn't work

Assuming your base information, getting 18k votes out of the remaining ballots isn't good enough because Trump would get the other 25%. Biden would still be behind by thousands.

You have to look at the net change

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Response to genxlib (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:29 AM

12. u're correct. I'm hoping the remaining to be counted exceeds the 25K they mentioned. Someone

mentioned provisional ballots and i'm concerned they w/ find a way to throw those out.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:27 AM

11. I think the 25k remaining is not correct.

Lot more than that according to my calcs. About 80-90,000.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:30 AM

13. Exactly, that's what i suspect as well.

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Response to onetexan (Reply #13)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:05 AM

20. Link to SOS GA saying 90,000 remaining as of 10:15 pm last night

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #20)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:44 AM

26. vote numbers on AP since 10:43PM EST

I started tracking Georgia numbers reported by AP at 7:43PM PDT (10:43PMEDT)

Time.....Biden........Trump.......Margin
7:43pm 2,395,944 2,427,250 -31,306
3:30am 2,413,999 2,432,097 -18,098

So, between those two times, Biden picked up 18,055 votes to Trump's 4,487, a 78% to 21% ratio.

Assuming the 7:43PM PDT vote totals were the same as 7:15PM PDT, then the votes remaining should be 90,735 - (18,055 + 4,487) = 67,833

So, if the Biden percentage holds for the remaining votes - a big if - then Biden might pick up 52,909 votes to 14,244 for Trump, which would be a net gain gain of 38,665 for Biden. That would put Biden in the lead by 20,567 votes.

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Response to doubleplusgood (Reply #26)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:54 AM

27. That sounds good!

Fingers crossed!

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:37 AM

14. My local GA Democratic DA candidate (headed for a runoff y'all!🍊) retweeted this:

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:41 AM

15. Someone correct me if I am wrong here

But isn't there a difference between "counted ballots" and processed ones? It would seem to be that if there is 25,000 left to be counted, there's still probably alot of Biden voted that hasn't yet been processed and reported since it was done overnight.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:53 AM

18. Are they still accepting mail in ballots?

or are all the votes in?

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:01 AM

19. Trump

Trump slightly increased his lead according to Yahoo.

Donald Trump 49.6% 2,432,097
Joe Biden 49.2% 2,413,999

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Response to BeerBarrelPolka (Reply #19)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:07 AM

21. That's an 18,000 lead same as what was posted above.

Which is the smallest lead since they started counting afaik.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #21)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:09 AM

22. Yes

It's a different tally than the one above, meaning Georgia is releasing updates. Just a few hundred ballots difference.

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Response to BeerBarrelPolka (Reply #22)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:13 AM

23. Yes, I have noticed a few variations on the exact count on different sites.

But seems the latest is approx 18,000 difference with about 90,000 left to count. Which is probably enough for Biden to win this if the remaining votes are coming from strong blue areas as many are saying.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #23)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:15 AM

24. Gotcha

Thanks.

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Response to onetexan (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:25 AM

25. Scarborough reckons that Biden will win Ga by about 20,000 votes.

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