Two important posts on 538 Live Blog

[NRaleighLiberal]

NOV. 3, 9:15 PM
One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent.

NOV. 3, 9:15 PM
This is interesting:

Florida currently looks like a bit of an outlier, because Biden is running ahead of Clinton in complete counties nationwide

Here's a plot of the 100+ counties we believe are done counting votes, other than provisional ballots https://t.co/uDOl3VWPf7 pic.twitter.com/82yiBbiV55

[PTWB]

1. If Joe wins OH it means MI, PA, WI are probably ours.

It’s gonna be close. Ulcer-inducing close.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Even if Joe loses Ohio barely, he's likely doing well enough in MI, PA and WI to win.

[PTWB]

3. Yes.

His performance in OH is the one silver lining so far - I’m just not comfortable yet with his lead shrinking and still 40% of the vote outstanding.

[idziak4ever1234]

7. The trend all night.

[radius777]

12. Bingo. He's doing well in many suburbs

and even working class areas that Hillary did poorly in last time.

He's underperforming w/Latinos but there aren't many in those states as there are in the Sunbelt.

[MoonchildCA]

4. I just wanted this thing to be a blowout so bad.

Instead it’s a frickin’ nail biter.

[babylonsister]

8. Yes, that's what I wished, too. nt

[Turin_C3PO]

9. Not that it matters but

I think Biden will end up winning the popular vote by quite a bit and the electoral college will be tighter but he’ll win.

[Beartracks]

11. And he should govern with a mandate. n/t

[Ferrets are Cool]

10. Yes, but I will take a win by any means

[MoonchildCA]

14. Me too, but if it was a blowout, we would know by now.

This may be taking a few years off my life expectancy.

[Turin_C3PO]

5. Scary but hopeful at the same time.

I still believe it’s Biden’s race to lose.

[Hoyt]

6. That bit about if trump wins FL, GA, NC trump has 50% chance to win EC is definitely concerning.

[radius777]

13. If we win AZ or OH it swings back in our favor. /nt