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Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:44 PM

Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today

Carlie Cook over at the Cook Political Report released his final thoughts and predictions on where this election is headed. He has been a bit more bullish and less equivocal about Bidens chances of victory. He believes that sites like RCP and 538 aren't being selective enough with their polling averages, so a lot of shitty right wing numbers are getting thrown in. He believes that Biden is looking at a 9-10 point win nationally and not a 7-8 point win. He also doesn't think the polls are underestimating Trump.

The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.

I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago.

...

What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections—a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago.


https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/dont-expect-contested-election

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Arrow 17 replies Author Time Post
Reply Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today (Original post)
Dr. Jack Nov 2020 OP
beachbumbob Nov 2020 #1
lagomorph777 Nov 2020 #13
Wellstone ruled Nov 2020 #2
JCMach1 Nov 2020 #3
underpants Nov 2020 #10
ProfessorGAC Nov 2020 #16
The Magistrate Nov 2020 #4
CaliforniaPeggy Nov 2020 #5
DLCWIdem Nov 2020 #6
LizBeth Nov 2020 #7
True Blue American Nov 2020 #8
Windy City Charlie Nov 2020 #9
lagomorph777 Nov 2020 #14
triron Nov 2020 #11
BusyBeingBest Nov 2020 #12
joshcryer Nov 2020 #15
DIVINEprividence Nov 2020 #17

Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:47 PM

1. I see 9-10pt margin as the MINIMUM. 3RD party will take 1% and if trump hits 44% which would be

 

extremely unlikely, Biden wins by 15pts

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 01:22 PM

13. 56 - 44 equals 12 points, assuming zero write-ins/indies

Which would still be cool.

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:47 PM

2. Take it to the Bank.

 

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:48 PM

3. I am expecting 12-14 once the West Coast is counted

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 01:04 PM

10. Remember 78-3. Joe has 28% of 270 in his back pocket.

California Oregon Washington Hawaii are 78 EC votes. Alaska is 3.

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Response to underpants (Reply #10)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:25 PM

16. Add 18 For Illinois

There are cinches here in central time, too!
So, he's starting with well over 100!

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:48 PM

4. It Does Seem That Sort Of a Year, Sir

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:49 PM

5. Thanks for this fascinating article, my dear Dr. Jack!

I like reading stuff like this. It helps me concentrate on the good numbers and to ignore the rest.

I hope Charlie Cook is right!

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:50 PM

6. How can Biden be underestimated and tRump be underestimated at the same time

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:52 PM

7. I was thinking the 6-7 was too low too.

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:53 PM

8. Just received an email!

Last chance to get your Trump Golden Coin! Act now!

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:58 PM

9. If that's the case

If that's the case, this will be getting called tonight....but I'm sure Trump will be crying that Biden shouldn't be declared the winner until all of the votes have been counted.

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Response to Windy City Charlie (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 01:23 PM

14. LOL of course he will!

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 01:18 PM

11. Excellent news.

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 01:20 PM

12. Guess we'll figure out which side lives in an unreality bubble tonight.

God I hope it's them and not us.

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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:16 PM

15. We need to gerrymander the shit out of this thing.



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Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:28 PM

17. It is like 1980 in reverse

 

I am firmly in the “this will be a blowout” camp

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