I sure am glad PA, WI, MI and MN have Biden up by greater than 5 pts, otherwise I would be a lot

[Quixote1818]

more nervous. Can you imagine if he was just up by 1 or 2 or even? Yikes would that be nerve-racking! I feel pretty good now knowing they are probably trying to error more in a way that helps Trump out. Listening to 538, I think a lot of pollsters have not only adjusted what they missed in 2016 but are giving Trump a couple of extra pts just to cover themselves.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

1. I Pretty Obsessively Check The Polls Every Day.........

...........and every time I do, I end up saying the same thing to myself: "I just don't see how Biden DOESN'T win this." The math just ain't there for Trump. Literally, ALL Biden has to do is win all the States he's a LOCK to win anyway, and then get back Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That's IT. You can GIVE Trump ALL the other swing States, and he still can't win.

And after watching the State polls for weeks, I just don't see any way Trump can get those three States. Joe is running away with it in all three. Plus, Joe's got a VERY good chance of winning Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina (any one of which would put a severe crimp in Trump's math too). And I think Biden might just pull off Ohio and Iowa too. Texas is going to be closer than ever, but I don't think it's ready to turn yet.

As I've been saying for a while now, if they call Florida for Biden, you can just turn off your TV, because it's over. There's literally no scenario where Trump can win without Florida.

[judeling]

2. Are you kidding if Biden wins Florida

I'll be surfing hard. Basking in the glow and purging the last of 2016.

[regnaD kciN]

4. I agree that there's no way Trump can win an *ordinary* election...

...but this isn't an ordinary election. The fact that a heavy majority of Republicans will be voting at the polls on Election Day, while a heavy majority of Democrats will be either early-voting or voting by mail means there's a yuge chance for skullduggery (witness the "undelivered" mail in Miami/Dade), especially when Trump loyalists control the mail service and the courts that would be asked to adjudicate any issues after the election.

What that tells me is that, while it should be enough to win the 2016 Clinton states plus PA/MI/WI (and, based purely on math, it would be), we really need to win at least one and probably two additional states that went red four years ago. And, while we're leading in several of these, it's very much within the standard MoE, so it wouldn't be a surprise if Trump won any of them, or maybe even all of them. Above all, it has to be emphasized to voters in all those locations that they have to go "above and beyond" to make sure their votes are submitted in the most secure and foolproof way. Put it simply, it's their responsibility to make sure that the powers that be don't even get the chance to find a way to invalidate them -- and I wish I knew a way to make that clear to all of those voters!

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Pennsylvania is the only one I'm a bit antsy about

That Univision poll the other day had crosstabs galore. Just the type of thing I love, especially since the vast majority were logical.

The entire long scroll looked great for Biden except Pennsylvania General Population poll, where there had a pre-debate/post-debate category that shifted wildly toward Trump after the debate. No other state was like that. They also had Florida, Texas and Arizona. Let me emphasize the entirety didn't make sense regarding Pennsylvania because they had questions about Pence and Kamala and Sanders also. Every approval number moved sharply in the post-debate category, way up for Pence and way down for Harris and Sanders. It almost seemed like they sampled an entirely different group of people and got an oddball sample, heavily slanted toward the GOP. I just wish nothing odd like that had shown up at all. There was nothing to make sense of it. I don't see how the fracking comment would have moved things like that.

Now I'm hoping the late round of Pennsylvania polls don't indicate anything like that. Nate Silver said the major polling companies are holding out Pennsylvania as the last state they poll. Those numbers need to remain in the recent territory, like you mentioned in the OP. I want to see 5s and 7s and not 3s. Pennsylvania did not bank half the vote before that final debate, like some other states.

Here is that link to the hundreds of crosstabs and questions. Pennsylvania General Population is roughly 2/3 of the way down:

https://st1.uvnimg.com/33/8f/ed1016da4a5fb16ec7e34cd5568a/univision-crosstabs-october-final.pdf

I realize some posters here don't want anything like this. Tough for me as a handicapper because in that realm everyone wants full info, especially numerical based, no matter which side it falls.

[regnaD kciN]

5. Well, they obviously did sample "an entirely different group of people"...

...since I doubt they called the same people back after the debate to ask if their opinion had changed.

I think the dead giveaway there is the Sanders question. Since he isn't on the ballot, and really hasn't been that visible recently, I consider him pretty much the "control group" of the survey. There seems to be no way in my mind that a debate between Biden and Trump would have swayed people's views about Bernie Sanders from slightly positive to strongly negative. It seems obvious that the group they polled after the debate, by chance, happened to be a much more Republican group than those polled before it.

[COL Mustard]

6. You Have To Continue To Campaign Like He's 10 Points Behind

It’s not over yet. If you have friends who haven’t voted, please help them get to the polls on Tuesday!