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Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:04 AM

Silver: The race is not tightening


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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The race is not tightening if you use any sort of robust methodology or look at the better polling. The tightening is almost entirely confined to a group of 3 or 4 pollsters that release a lot of polls and so can dominate polling averages that don't adjust for house effects, etc.
8:19 PM · Oct 29, 2020·Twitter Web App

48 replies, 9566 views

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Arrow 48 replies Author Time Post
Reply Silver: The race is not tightening (Original post)
RandySF Oct 30 OP
captain queeg Oct 30 #1
DownriverDem Oct 30 #23
Thekaspervote Oct 30 #2
malaise Oct 30 #4
jaxexpat Oct 30 #8
groundloop Oct 30 #10
jaxexpat Oct 30 #14
ProfessorGAC Oct 30 #16
malaise Oct 30 #12
jaxexpat Oct 30 #13
FakeNoose Oct 30 #25
malaise Oct 30 #26
Dream Girl Oct 30 #28
malaise Oct 30 #35
deurbano Oct 30 #41
malaise Oct 30 #42
634-5789 Oct 30 #5
Soxfan58 Oct 30 #11
UCmeNdc Oct 30 #3
Sherman A1 Oct 30 #6
qanda Oct 30 #7
Buckeye_Democrat Oct 30 #9
ProfessorGAC Oct 30 #17
Buckeye_Democrat Oct 30 #19
smb Oct 31 #45
ProfessorGAC Oct 31 #46
Amishman Oct 30 #15
scipan Oct 30 #39
NurseJackie Oct 30 #18
jcgoldie Oct 30 #20
NurseJackie Oct 30 #21
Dream Girl Oct 30 #31
SWBTATTReg Oct 30 #27
Dream Girl Oct 30 #30
jcgoldie Oct 30 #32
IronLionZion Oct 30 #33
NurseJackie Oct 30 #34
GoCubsGo Oct 30 #22
warmfeet Oct 30 #24
scipan Oct 30 #40
calimary Oct 31 #43
Hugin Oct 30 #29
MyOwnPeace Oct 30 #36
Hugin Oct 30 #37
MyOwnPeace Oct 30 #38
Dopers_Greed Oct 31 #44
rocktivity Nov 1 #47
Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2 #48

Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:09 AM

1. That's encouraging

I find it hard to believe there are people just now making up their minds. Of course I find trump support hard to believe so I am concerned.

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Response to captain queeg (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:45 AM

23. Me too

I'm ashamed of white trumpers too.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:11 AM

2. I'm not concerned that we will win...we will

It’s what the courts may do following if it’s a close election

GO VOTE!

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:32 AM

4. The courts will not cede their own power to Killa Con

Take that to the bank - ByeDon!

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Response to malaise (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:18 AM

8. In the past, the USSC has, however, bent evidence based reality to support the GOP.

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Response to jaxexpat (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:30 AM

10. Yes, but hopefully Joe will be so far ahead that it can't come to that.

THEREFORE, we need an overwhelming voter turnout.

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Response to groundloop (Reply #10)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:41 AM

14. Exactly, a measly 3.5 million vote advantage won't do it this time.......either.

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Response to jaxexpat (Reply #14)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:06 AM

16. It Could!

In the last 20 years we've seen the weirdness, for sure.
But, neither time did the popular vote winner get a majority. Merely a plurality.
A 3.5 million vote win may be sufficient if the winner is over 50%.
Third party votes don't seem to be much of a factor this time.
We don't have a frame of reference for a squeaker in the EC when the PV winner is over 50%.
Now, I'm with you in wanting to see a big margin & a clear & obvious win.
That way it would be a large margin of victory plus over 50%.

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Response to jaxexpat (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:31 AM

12. 2000 for sure but I think they had the CJ over his medical drug use

This time is different - this is a major institutional grab by the Killa Con.

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Response to malaise (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:38 AM

13. To gods ears, salaam.

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Response to malaise (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:26 AM

25. Astute observation Malaise

You continually surprise me. I salute you, my friend.

I've been thinking the same, but you expressed it better than I could have.


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Response to FakeNoose (Reply #25)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:40 AM

26. I learn a lot here, save links and then

study what's going on. ReTHUGs have been using blackmail for a long time.

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Response to malaise (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 12:12 PM

28. CJ? Chief Justice? Wat drug use? Say more please.

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Response to Dream Girl (Reply #28)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 02:31 PM

35. Here

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna16474383

A physician at the U.S. Capitol prescribed a powerful sleep aid for William Rehnquist for nearly a decade while he was an associate justice of the Supreme Court, according to newly released FBI records.

The records present a picture of a justice with chronic back pain who for many months took three times the recommended dosage of the drug Placidyl and then went into withdrawal in 1981 when he abruptly stopped taking it.

Rehnquist checked himself into George Washington University Hospital, where he tried to escape in his pajamas and imagined that the CIA was plotting against him, the records indicate.

Although Rehnquist's drug dependency was publicly known around the time he was hospitalized in 1981, the release of the FBI records provides new details.

Month-long detox effort
The justice was weaned off Placidyl in early 1982 in a detoxification process that took a month, according to the records. The hospital doctor who treated Rehnquist said the Capitol Hill physician who prescribed Placidyl for Rehnquist was practicing bad medicine, bordering on malpractice. Both doctors' names were deleted from the documents before they were released.

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Response to malaise (Reply #35)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:33 PM

41. How did I miss that?!!!

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Response to deurbano (Reply #41)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:43 PM

42. Was one of those Holy Shit moments that I never forget

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:39 AM

5. Exactly correct.

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:31 AM

11. Exactly

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:17 AM

3. Just Get Out Our Vote!

Vote!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:01 AM

6. K&R

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:13 AM

7. They played their hand too early.

People see their attempts at voter suppression and don't like it at all. I did a poll in one of my groups and close to no one mailed in their ballot. They either voted in person or dropped off their ballot.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:18 AM

9. Yeah, pollsters like SurveyMonkey.

They've put out numerous polls for Ohio recently, with Trump always ahead.

Silver rates them poorly, so I wish 538 wouldn't use them. If they get a weight above zero, it's too much!

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:09 AM

17. Speaking Of Them...

...I noticed that Illinois is such a done deal that SurveyMonkey, a D rated pollster is the only group running polls here.
No Gallup, no YouGov, no Marist, no Quinnipiac... Just SM.
And the races for prez & senate are still not close!

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #17)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:13 AM

19. I've taken Illinois for granted and didn't notice.

I'm more surprised by the relative lack of decent pollsters in Ohio lately, given how it's tight here, at least until Quinnipiac yesterday.

By the way, thank you blue-Illinois voters!

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #17)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 04:51 PM

45. A Million SurveyMonkeys Taking A Million Polls Can Write A "Cheeto Can Win" Narrative nt

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Response to smb (Reply #45)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:14 PM

46. Well, That Explains The D Rating On 538!

And why they're the only one bothering here.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:41 AM

15. That's unusually direct for Silver, he is normally the king of hedged statements

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Response to Amishman (Reply #15)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:45 PM

39. Good point. Also, I think he would say that polls

Always tighten at the end. I've certainly heard it enough in the past.

But this time they're not!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:10 AM

18. What does he mean by adjusting for "house effects"?

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #18)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:18 AM

20. He means

538 uses a lot of polls even ones that regularly show bias in one direction due to their methodology or sampling. Rasmussan, for example, is regularly like 6 or 8 points biased towards republicans. So silver still uses them just not the raw numbers rather he adjusts for house effect. So if the Ras poll says Trump 50-49 , 538 doesnt toss it they just unskew it 6 or 7 points to the left before entering it in their model... it becomes Biden +5 or 6... in this way he still gets the benefit of seeing the trends within these polls without allowing their obviously biased numbers to trash his model and make the race seem closer than it is.

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #20)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:19 AM

21. Thanks so much for your detailed response...

... that was interesting and helpful!

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #21)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 12:20 PM

31. Incorrect. See my post below.

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #20)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 12:10 PM

27. Yes, thanks for the helpful explanation!

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #20)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 12:18 PM

30. I don't believe that is correct. No repulatable data scienwould just arbitrarily add or subtract

Point from a completed published poll. I could see weighting down in the overall average but no monkeying around will the result.

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Response to Dream Girl (Reply #30)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 12:29 PM

32. You can see how it works on on the Trump approval page

He lists the actual poll results for each poll as well as the "adjusted" numbers. The adjustment is based on the "house effects" she was asking about. He's not "monkeying around with results" arbitrarily he is making adjustments based on the methodology which is flawed. I'm sure the formula is a little more complex than just simply adding 5 or 6 points... it probably involves looking at the internals of the poll to see how republicans were oversampled for example.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #18)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:33 PM

33. Calculating 'House Effects' of Polling Firms

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #33)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:51 PM

34. Ooo... good link! Thanks!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:25 AM

22. Thank you!

All the network morning shows are pushing that BS. GMA went so far as to go through a litany of groups Biden "needs to win," without mentioning that Trump has lost everyone except white men with no college education. I cannot wait for this shit to be over. It's as annoying as the never-ending fire hose of campaign commercials.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:15 AM

24. Yep.

We are on track to crush the orange menace with our giant blue wave.

GOTV - let's make this wave a tsunami of historic proportions.

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Response to warmfeet (Reply #24)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:47 PM

40. What a great picture. Nt

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Response to warmfeet (Reply #24)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:49 AM

43. OMG!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 12:16 PM

29. Something I appreciate about Silver is that in spite of all...

He does strive to be objective.

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Response to Hugin (Reply #29)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:01 PM

36. Yeah.......

"Truth" and "objectivity" are things that have become rare in political discussion lately....

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Response to MyOwnPeace (Reply #36)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:13 PM

37. No kidding.



Sometimes when I read Silver's stuff I see him straining mightily to point out changes without getting 'horse-racy' about it.

He knows he's addressing a very sensitive audience.

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Response to Hugin (Reply #37)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:18 PM

38. BunkerBoy has provided them all......

with the "FAKE NEWS!" trigger - and LAWD knows they're ready to pull it the instant they see "truth" applied to anything related to BunkerBoy!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 11:00 AM

44. The only reason the Repugs thrive is by gaslighting everyone

These tilted polls are part of it.

The American public like picking a winner, so having higher polling numbers makes you look better to voters.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 11:48 PM

47. As of yesterday evening (11/1/2020), only one Real Clear Politics poll

Last edited Mon Nov 2, 2020, 12:51 PM - Edit history (4)

had Trump behind by less than 4 points as of the week of Oct. 25.

As of this morning (11/2), there are two polls insisting that the spread is three points or less -- the race tightened up overnight, LOL!

It's all about winning by a cheatproof margin, the way Obama did (twice) and Kerry and Hillary didn't.



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/


rocktivity

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Mon Nov 2, 2020, 12:58 AM

48. What I kept saying. Rasmussen releases tons of polls and

It skews the avgs.

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