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Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:05 PM

"Don't sweat the polls" - five reasons why this isn't like 2016.

1. In 2016, the pollsters totally whiffed on the Great Lakes states. In 2020, they’ve changed their methods.
2. In 2016, a ton of undecided voters broke late for Trump. In 2020, most of those voters have already decided.
3. In 2016, we had the mother of all October surprises. In 2020, we have the most stable race in decades.
4. In 2016, district-level polls indicated a last-minute Democratic collapse. In 2020, they indicate Democratic strength.
5. In 2016, there wasn’t a global pandemic. In 2020, there is a global pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/five-reasons-to-believe-2020-wont-be-a-2016-sequel/616896/

This article eased my anxiety a bit.


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Reply "Don't sweat the polls" - five reasons why this isn't like 2016. (Original post)
The Velveteen Ocelot Oct 29 OP
BootinUp Oct 29 #1
Fiendish Thingy Oct 29 #2
Fiendish Thingy Oct 29 #3
Hyper_Eye Oct 30 #8
List left Oct 29 #4
fleur-de-lisa Oct 29 #5
regnaD kciN Oct 29 #6
Dem2 Oct 29 #7
KY_EnviroGuy Oct 30 #9

Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:06 PM

1. nice summary nt

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:09 PM

2. 6. In 2016, HRC never broke 50%; in 2020, Biden has averaged at or above 50% for months. Nt

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:10 PM

3. 7. In 2016, there were 14% undecided; in 2020, it's avg. 3-5%. Nt

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:40 AM

8. This one would be a repeat of #2

I like your #6 addition though. It is a very important data point.

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:20 PM

4. tRump & company are tripping themselves up & our candidates are on fire!

They can't seem to control nonstop face planting.


tRump

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:24 PM

5. Thank you for actually including the 5 reasons in your post.

That’s so refreshing. It’s frustrating when an OP mentions ## ‘fabulous things you have to know right now’ then neglects to include them due to the 4 paragraph limitation.

If you’re reading DU on a cell phone, it can be a pain in the rear to click on every link to read the full article.

Your summary is perfect!

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:26 PM

6. Frankly, #5 is the one that worries me...

I have no doubt that, in a normal election, we'd be looking at a Biden rout. But, thanks to the pandemic, this isn't a normal election, but one where, most likely, a majority of the votes will be cast by mail, in a nation where most states have never had to contend with so many -- and, more to the point, where it's pretty well recognized that a majority of the votes for one side will be cast by mail, while the other will be at the polls. That means that the chances of invalidated primarily-Democratic votes goes way up, even assuming everyone is acting in good faith and those are all caused by innocent voter errors. When, in addition, the other side has a hegemony on power and is actively trying to pull every trick in the book to prevent those votes from being cast/counted, it's a whole new ball game.

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:31 PM

7. There was another factor

I know we're not supposed to rehash this, and it's just as well everybody has forgotten, but there was a whole thing about Bernie supporters not voting (or worse, voting for Satan.)

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:58 AM

9. K&R. Thank you.

KY........

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