Trump to pull all ads out of Florida. Campaign only focusing on OH, MN, MI & PA

[Drunken Irishman]

What does this mean?

1. Ohio is not locked down and they realize they MUST win it.

2. If Ohio is not locked down, I suspect they aren't sure Florida is, either, but likely have to gamble with Florida to lock down Ohio as losing both would be devastating.

3. Wisconsin seems to be gone for them if they're moving ads from there. I seriously doubt it's due to confidence of winning.

4. Minnesota also means they realize they have to flip a state, which fits the idea they see Wisconsin as being gone.

Link to tweet

[vercetti2021]

1. Minnesota?

He's losing by 13 there lmao more waste of money and time for him.

[Mister Ed]

8. AND about 1/3 of us in MN have already cast our votes.

They're already being counted.

[vercetti2021]

11. Yeah he ain't winning it

Unless some hardcore ratfucking happens there. But I don't think he's winning there whatsoever.

[lunasun]

28. I think it all has to do with the trump campaign in'16 naming MN the one state they will flip 2020 R

They set thetarget there 4 years ago, and now even though it never played out ( at least that is what most say) they continue to deep their heels deeper into MN. They are into more than numbers in their pea heads some determined mission for trump
https://time.com/5891409/minnesota-trump-biden-2020/
No Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since 1972. But Trump outperformed expectations to come within 1.5 points in 2016, and his campaign has touted Minnesota as one of its top 2020 pickup targets. Like its Midwestern neighbors, the state has seen its rural areas trend increasingly Republican even as its urban and suburban areas increasingly vote Democratic. Nineteen counties in what’s known as “greater Minnesota”—a term used to refer to areas outside the Twin Cities region, or non-urban areas more generally—flipped from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016, even as Hillary Clinton improved on Obama’s margins in Minneapolis and St. Paul.
AZ a previous target worked a while but look at it now

[TheRealNorth]

31. He doesn't want to admit defeat

his ego won't allow it

[lunasun]

35. I just edited my reply before i saw this reply Link about how the campaign was convinced

they could turn MN .
https://time.com/5891409/minnesota-trump-biden-2020/
Just another example how he and his idiot campaigners wont let it go when it's already long gone
What do they care it is not their $$$ they can spend it all on their ridiculous dead end bet
Another state that will piss him off in November

[LizBeth]

25. +1

[sunonmars]

2. Minnesota is an odd one, not a chance that flips to Trump.

[NorthOf270]

10. He has to be calling his own strategy

And they're just like "Ok whatever".

[durablend]

3. Crap

That means Murder 45 will be superspreading all over PA in the next week.

[TheBlackAdder]

46. Probably also signals that DeSantis advised Trump that the fix is in.

[qazplm135]

4. were I Trump

I'd put ALL my money in three places...Ohio, Florida, and PA and nowhere else.

He simply HAS to win all three of those states or he has no chance.

Spending money and time in Minnesota is nuts. Even if he wins it, it won't likely be the tipping point, PA would.

Heck, it would make more sense to make AZ or NV his fourth state. It's closer there.
He ain't winning Michigan.

Florida is going to be close. It's always close. Not making it a centerpiece of your final days is beyond stupid. Particularly when you HAVE to have it to win.

[Baclava]

15. Yep, FL, PA and OH are critical, he's cracking if he pulls ads from FL, the campaign must be broke

[Statistical]

26. Agreed. MN is weird. MI probably isn't going to decide the race either.

If he keeps the Trump 2016 states minus MI and WI then he still wins.

Biden could win all over the map but he could just barely lose all over the map (down 2 in FL, down 1 in NC, etc). So OH, PA, and FL make sense. MI doesn't really and MN is just nuts.

As I said in another post I think it is Trump needing to be a winner. He wants to win one of the states he didn't win in 2016.

[lunasun]

30. But MN was the trump campaign's announced 2020 goal to flip right after his 16 win

Because they are boneheads , they probably feel they have to prove their goal instead of focusing on FL, which I agree with you I would pick as a focus. so many variables there they can work too . Big state
see post # 28 about MN
https://time.com/5891409/minnesota-trump-biden-2020/
AZ&NV? I think both will go blue maybe the trump campaign does too

[stillcool]

5. Ohio has helped Republicans

with elections in the past...especially Kenneth Blackwell in 2004

During and after the 2016 campaign, Manafort and Kilimnik spoke and met multiple times. The two talked about strategies to defeat Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, according to the report, citing a conversation Kilimnik had with an associate in which he said Manafort had a "clever plan of screwing Clinton." The two also talked about how Trump might win, the report said, noting that Manafort expected Kilimnik to share the information to people in Ukraine and elsewhere.

The report said Kilimnik sought to leverage his relationship with Manafort and use him to influence the Trump administration and the Russian government "to effect a certain political outcome."

In one of two meetings with Kilimnik during his tenure as Trump campaign chairman, "Manafort briefed Kilimnik on the state of the Trump Campaign and Manafort's plan to win the election," the Mueller report concluded. "That briefing encompassed the campaign's messaging and its internal polling data. According to Gates, it also included discussion of 'battleground' states, which Manafort identified as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/18/senate-details-paul-manafort-ties-russian-intel-officer-kilimnik/3390437001/

[Cosmocat]

6. My first thought on the news about Florida

is he is banking on Disantis doing the dirt for him there ...

I would expect Florida to be even worse of a shitshow than it normally is.

I mean, expect some blatant, out in the open bullshit.

[Bleacher Creature]

7. Minnesota??? HAHAHAHA!

[Trumpdumper]

9. Here's the Trump math

MN +10
WI -10
FL -29

So that's a net loss of 29 EVs from 2016, leaving Trump with 306-29 = 277.

Of course, that means too that Trump needs to cross fingers that he holds all the other '16 states, including AZ.

Or maybe they really think FL will come through but are conceding AZ, leaving them with 295 (or 285 if they can't pull in MN, or 269 if they also lose MI).

A poll in MN today had Biden up 15.

MN sounds like fool's gold for GOP.

[dawg day]

42. Do they think they'll win Michigan?

Oh, well. We'll know pretty soon.
Now I'm going to go pour a glass of wine and chant some.

[NorthOf270]

12. Or they think they'll win those states in court.

[Happy Hoosier]

13. If Trump loses Florida, he has a VERY tough road.

Does he think he has it in the bag? Is the fix in?

Or is the Trump campaign a flaming dumpster fire?

Minnesota seems odds. Many some internals giving them false hope?

[Drunken Irishman]

16. I outlined what I thought.

But I guess I'll expand on it:

Say his internals put him at +2 in Florida. But his internals in Ohio put him at +.5, essentially a tie, it makes political sense to pull ads and resources out of Florida to do everything you can to win Ohio.

Trump can still win if he loses Florida (though it'll be a tough). He cannot win if he loses both Florida and Ohio.

Minnesota is clear: if they're not focused on Wisconsin, it likely means they think it's lost. So, they're trying to find 10 electoral votes to make up for it. They need to flip a state now because if Biden wins all of Hillary's states + WI, MI & NC, he wins.

[ffr]

14. Pence and Orange Anus are scheduled to visit the Silver State one more time too

So they haven't given up here.

[Azathoth]

17. They're gambling they've won there

But they can't win without PA. This is a Hail Mary.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Doubt it. They wouldn't be in Ohio if they felt Florida was won.

They're gambling that they can win it but going into Ohio is proof they're not certain because he can't win the election if he loses both Florida and Ohio. He can theoretically still win even if he loses Florida.

But he has no choice but to risk Florida to save Ohio, which they clearly believe is at risk.

[Azathoth]

23. OH is next to PA. Overlapping media markets and cultures

and cross-pollenation of the electorates. If they have very limited funds left and they have to choose between two states they think they're gonna win (OH vs FL), it's probably a safer return on investment to go with a regional strategy.

FL is traditionally a clustf***. The rust belt swung unexpectedly hard for Trump in 2016 and the campaign likely thinks that's their best chance at scoring an upset.

[Drunken Irishman]

27. They clearly don't think they're safe in Ohio.

So, not sure where you're getting the "clearly think they're going to win" idea. If they did, they'd just focus that money in PA or WI, the latter they're pulling ads out of.

[Azathoth]

33. I didn't say "clearly". I said if they had a choice between two states

they think they will win, OH is the more logical choice to spend on because it's in the heart of the rust belt. This move doesn't mean they're writing off FL or that they're in trouble in OH.

Neither OH or FL are "clearly" theirs. It's certainly possible they're seeing more worrisome signs in Ohio than in FL. But even if they aren't, spending in FL doesn't contribute to any Hail Mary upset strategy, while spending in OH might.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. The point is, if they felt they had Ohio won, they wouldn't spend there.

The fact they are, after winning the state by ten four years ago, indicates they're worried they may be losing it.

[roamer65]

18. MI and MN are out of reach for Dump.

I see only a shot for him in OH.

[fescuerescue]

20. Ohio is the easy one. MN is the odd one

Ohio is always critical. No one wins without Ohio.

It's a little weird that he's ignoring florida in favor of Minnesota though.

There are some good and bad theories that could come from that.

[wishstar]

21. Wish he would pull ads out of NC too since we're sick of hearing all those lies

and because of his nasty false attack ads I can't stand to watch my local ABC affiliate

[tavernier]

22. Yay, sick of his face

[Statistical]

24. Yeah MN is the weird one.

Trump is doing worse in MN that WI or PA.

Still it is a retreat to the vital states. I agree with you FL is a coin flip but he has to get lucky somewhere and FL is an expensive state. He needs to keep PA and OH. MI is a backup.

MN is just weird. Probably Trump refusing to give up. He wants to show he is a winner and can take one of the Clinton 2016 states.

[hedda_foil]

29. How many of those states count vote by mail ballots before election day?

He's going with the premise that he can get SCOTUS to invalidate everything that isn't counted by the end of E-day. Do these states wait to count mail ins?

[Mister Ed]

44. MN has been counting early votes since last Thursday.

I don't know about the others.

[TheRealNorth]

32. it may also be about Western WI

Minneapolis-st Paul and Duluth media markets cross over into Western WI.

[NewsCenter28]

37. DI, what's your feeling on FL?

If you had to make a call, which I certainly won't hold you to, do you think we win it?

Also, the polling is looking really good in Georgia and North Carolina. Do you think I'm absolutely insane to think we could win either NC or GA without winning FL, i.e., worst case scenario that FL goes T because it's "gonna Florida" like usual doesn't necessarily mean that GA or NC will fall in line also? I don't think all 3 have to fall exactly the same way, personally. Further, North Carolina's somewhat more educated population could make a difference for us there along with having a Democratic governor to help with turnout.

[Renew Deal]

36. Biden could lose all of those and win with Florida and one more.

Assuming he wins AZ. It's much harder, but it can work.

[pwb]

38. It is late. Trump is running scared.

Predictable.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

39. Trump MUST win one of those blue states or it's over.

He's counting on the toss-up states all going his way, plus he needs to get one of the Rust Belt states that's polling well for Biden/Harris.

As explained in this video:

[Quixote1818]

40. Seems like a risky plan. If he wins PA and loses just one of those other states he is done.

He should probably putting some effort into the ones he is trailing in like AZ and NC.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

43. He has to win one of those Rust Belt states...

... to have any chance at all.

Trump has to win ALL of the toss-up states (which includes AZ and NC), plus at least one state from MN, WI, MI or PA where Biden/Harris have significant leads.

It's a long-shot for him, but Trump is desperate to win the EC, not just win more electoral votes in an overall losing cause.

See the video that I posted above your reply.

[yellowcanine]

41. Florida is expensive and they only have enough money to do this.

It is a hail Mary with a quarterback who can't throw and receivers who can't catch against the best defense in the country.

[BSdetect]

45. FLA voting machines are ripe for tampering so perhaps that is their plan