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Mon Oct 26, 2020, 11:28 PM

North Carolina voting analysis.

The Democrats currently have a big lead: using the registered supporters metric, they’re ahead by eleven points.

Now, this lead is very similar to 2016, when they lost the State to the Republicans.

But there’s a big difference: in 2016, the total early vote was much smaller (it was 3.1 million, a total that has already been surpassed) and there were 1.6 million votes on the day. This time, the number will be far smaller – I’d guess less than a million. That means that President Trump has to win “on the day voting” by three-to-one or more to be in with a shot. Doable? Yes. Easy? No Siree.

One last thought. At current rates of voting, and assuming that Biden is picking up half unaffiliated voters, Biden will pass Clinton’s vote total at the end of day on Thursday – a full four days before the election.



https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/26/reading-the-tea-leaves-a-look-at-north-carolina-early-voting/

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Reply North Carolina voting analysis. (Original post)
Doodley Oct 26 OP
Karadeniz Oct 26 #1
grantcart Oct 26 #2
oasis Oct 27 #3
MyMission Oct 27 #4
RDANGELO Oct 27 #5

Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 11:31 PM

1. Thanks for the good news!

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 11:41 PM

2. Kick

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2020, 12:54 AM

3. Nice.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2020, 01:04 AM

4. 45 won NC 49.83% to 46.17%

So he won here with under 50% of the vote. And we elected a Democratic governor in that election.

Assuming he will lose some supporters and with the huge increase in Dem voters, from both the new Dem voters and those that didn't vote in the last election, it looks good.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2020, 03:29 AM

5. Here are the big questions.

How many of the early voters are people who requested mail in ballots, but decided to vote early?

How many of the mail in ballots requested and sent in will be make it in by election day?

How many of those mail in ballots will be rejected?

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