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Sun Oct 25, 2020, 08:09 PM

Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/25/20 - 3:45 p.m.

Some new mail in Clark extends the Dem firewall to 70K. Statewide: 57K

I'd estimate close to half the vote is in.

Clark mail: Dems+85K

Clark in-person: GOP+15K

Remember that the Dems had a 73K firewall in 2016 by the end of early voting. But extrapolate that to 20,000 with 200K new Clark voters on the rolls and the analogous number would be 88K.

So the Dems keep building, but hereís the bottom line:

We are not that far from where we were at the same time in 2016, if you extrapolate for 2020 voter reg and turnout. Dems are still a bit above where they were four years ago in combined mail/early voting, but the patters are still difficult to nail down.

No more updates yet today from SOS, but:

I am going to add the new Clark mail for purposes of the models, and you notice a few things.

About 465K have voted in Clark. So that 70K firewall is a 15 percentage point lead, or about 4 points over the actual reg edge.

Statewide, the lead is about 8 percent of the 700K or so who have voted. Thatís almost twice what the Dem reg lead is in percentage terms.

So the Dems have a substantial lead, even as they are not gaining quite as much in mail with every batch, erratic though the updates may be.

The difference between the 70K firewall right now and the 44K Clark firewall at the same time in 2016 is quite large, although, as I said, there were 200,000 fewer voters in 2016 in Southern Nevada. But even if you make it comparable, 2016ís lead would be 58,000, so itís still a substantial increase.

You can see there were 2016 weekend turnout dips, too, which may be counterintuitive but nevertheless is so. The upswing in turnout during the second week usually comes during the last five days, with it reaching a crescendo on the last day as both parties try to make a statement.

Will that happen this year Ė and will it be diminished by those three days after that until Election Day, when more mail will come in, and Nov. 3 turnout?

I still think the Dems, because of the additional voters this cycle and because Election Day could be larger than usual, will not be comfortable if they donít have a lead well over 80K in Clark by Saturday. The Republicans just want to keep the margins down every day to slow the growth and hope a massive Election Day turnout can make up for the Democratic banked votes Ė in this way, this year is like many others.


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