HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Prediction: Biden wins by...

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 03:57 PM

Prediction: Biden wins by a lot more than people are expecting

Let me say right off the bat, I of course don't have any secret insight or super special expertise on elections so take what I am about to say with a grain of salt.

With that said, I am going to predict that Biden will win by quite a bit more than people are expecting. I'm not basing this on claims like you see from Republicans that the polls are fake or "skewed" in some way. Instead I think the polls showing Biden hovering around 14 or 15 points nationally might prove to be the accurate ones and polls showing him around 8 or 9 are playing it too safe. Here is my reasoning:

1. Following 2016, many pollsters changed up their polling methodology to weigh heavier towards non college educated whites, or in other words Trump supporters. They did this of course to not underestimate Trump in places like Michigan, where they got it a bit wrong in 2016. I think however, that 2016s turnout models don't apply to 2020. 2016 was an anomaly and polls are somewhat overestimating the electorate being more trump friendly than it will be.

2. Nate Silver is suspicious that right wing leading pollsters like Trafalgar and Rasmussen are fucking with their numbers to force Trump's averages in the polls to be closer to where they want it to be. He doesn't think this is 100% malicious or that they are lying. Instead he seems to believe that these right wing pollsters want desperately for Trump to win and they are unintentionally finding evidence to prove their point. Also he thinks they are paranoid and that other non trump friendly pollsters are in the bag for Biden so they are releasing as many as their extremely generous polls to trump as often as they can to change the averages in Trump's favor. If right wing polls are indeed very inaccurate, which is looking pretty likely, and are way overestimating Trump then Biden's average lead could very well be understating democratic support.

3. Nate Silver also says he thinks his model may very well be too conservative right now. He said he doesn't entirely buy that Trump actually has a 12% chance of winning and that his model might be adding too much uncertainty to the projection which favors Trump.

4. The massive turnout this year will not be people turning out for Trump. Yes, Trump is going to get tens of millions of votes and Republican turnout will be high. However, experts think turnout will be between 6 million and 20 million votes higher in 2020 compared to 2016 (most likely about 12 million more). While I don't doubt some of those are Republicans, I think a significant majority are coming out for Biden. Between the pandemic, the economic collapse, the increased flirting Trump is doing with fascism and white supremacy, I believe a lot of people that sat on the sidelines in 2016 are now desperate for a "return to normalcy". I believe most of those extra 12 million votes are people that just want to be done with Trump and never have to deal with him again. And you have to ask yourself, what has Trump done to increase the size of his base or electoral coalition since 2016?

5. The massive amounts of money that Biden and the Dems are raising compared to Trump's campaign and the Republicans being nearly bankrupt shows that there isn't some hidden enthusiasm for Trump. Again, going back to point 4, if those extra 12 million voters this year were coming out in large part because of a "hidden Trump vote" then you would see him bringing in money like crazy and his rallies wouldn't be just 35 people all crammed together to make him look more popular than he is. Trump has his fanatical base, I don't deny that, but beyond that 35% of the country, no one else seems to be excited about the idea of a 2nd trump term.

6. Early voting turnout. Clearly the pandemic is affecting this quite a bit. Some people who would have turned out on election day during a normal year but I don't know if that entirely accounts for what appears to be a massive increase in turnout we are seeing in early voting amount democratic leaning demographics. Early voting among people under 30 for example is up some 1000% in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. First, I highly doubt they are trump supporters. Second, if people were happy with Trump or fairly "meh" on the democratic candidate this year (like in 2016) why the high turnout among Dems and Biden voters? If people weren't all that motivated to get rid of trump or wanted to keep him around, why bother voting early in such massive numbers? Why would people wait in a 8 hour line a month before the election to cast a ballot? If people loved trump and hated Biden they would what's the rush to vote for Biden?

7. Congressional district level polls are showing massive Biden leads. I left this point to the end because it is the least certain but might prove to be a critical data point that people are missing. Nate Silver talked a bit about this on their Friday podcast. He said that polls on the Congressional district level, some of which ask about presidential candidate preference while polling house races (those polls are not included in state or national averages therefore aren't taken into account by much of anyone right now) are showing a very different story on the election. Specifically a massive Biden lead. Far larger than the national or state polls. Since these polls aren't used in averages then they aren't susceptible to Trafalgar and Rasmussen fucking around, like I mentioned in point 2. District level polling in presidential elections is somewhat new and experimental in the context of polling models like 538 but there is some evidence that they might actually be far more accurate than national or state polls. If that is the case Biden's lead might actually be closer to 14 or 15 points.


Again, don't take what I am saying as gospel but I from my personal prospective, I think Biden is going to end up winning by a lot more than most people are expecting.

57 replies, 3532 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 57 replies Author Time Post
Reply Prediction: Biden wins by a lot more than people are expecting (Original post)
Dr. Jack Oct 2020 OP
DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #1
kiri Oct 2020 #47
DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #48
kiri Oct 2020 #54
MaryMagdaline Oct 2020 #2
Sogo Oct 2020 #3
Progressive Jones Oct 2020 #4
regnaD kciN Oct 2020 #5
Dr. Jack Oct 2020 #10
DLCWIdem Oct 2020 #13
peacebuzzard Oct 2020 #6
LineLineReply +
struggle4progress Oct 2020 #9
2naSalit Oct 2020 #7
ironflange Oct 2020 #19
George II Oct 2020 #25
Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #28
crickets Oct 2020 #49
fescuerescue Oct 2020 #56
OrlandoDem2 Oct 2020 #8
Dr. Jack Oct 2020 #11
2naSalit Oct 2020 #41
Sugarcoated Oct 2020 #50
cwydro Oct 2020 #12
Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #14
nycbos Oct 2020 #15
Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #26
Upthevibe Oct 2020 #45
triron Oct 2020 #16
BannonsLiver Oct 2020 #17
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #18
KentuckyWoman Oct 2020 #20
malaise Oct 2020 #21
captain queeg Oct 2020 #22
Quixote1818 Oct 2020 #23
Quixote1818 Oct 2020 #24
Stuart G Oct 2020 #27
NoRoadUntravelled Oct 2020 #35
Meowmee Oct 2020 #29
BainsBane Oct 2020 #30
NoRoadUntravelled Oct 2020 #31
warmfeet Oct 2020 #32
Loge23 Oct 2020 #33
Karadeniz Oct 2020 #34
Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #36
AlexSFCA Oct 2020 #37
Withywindle Oct 2020 #38
Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #42
bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #39
Mr. Ected Oct 2020 #40
pandr32 Oct 2020 #43
moose65 Oct 2020 #44
panfluteman Oct 2020 #46
Joinfortmill Oct 2020 #51
Dem2 Oct 2020 #52
StevieM Oct 2020 #53
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #55
Mtbar Oct 2020 #57

Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:02 PM

1. Well-written and well-thought out

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonaldsRump (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 07:12 PM

47. trump will sue, appeal, refile, ad infinitum as he has done successfully

As far as polls matter, your analysis is strong.

However, national polls, even state polls, matter little when the entire trump strategy--with feints to distract-- lies with the electoral college. Trump has an army of poll watchers to challenge and intimidate.

In 2016 it was reported that Trump's lawyers had 3100 (!) lawsuits filed. He will continue to tie up the courts--which are now mostly trump-controlled. Even the ACLU cannot prevent filings. Look how successful Trump has been in delaying, thwarting, delaying, appealing, refiling, appealing again, on and on. For 5 years, anyone seen any tax returns answered by a subpoena? Election law violated with bribe payments to Stormy? Ivanka forced to testify? Etc. 3,100 law suits so far.

Watch Trump's feints. Look over here! He is a grand master of this. Meanwhile the repubs in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin stealthily 'fix' the Electoral College.

Definition of feint
: something feigned specifically : a mock blow or attack on or toward one part in order to distract attention from the point one really intends to attack

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kiri (Reply #47)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 07:14 PM

48. Not going to happen

The margin of victory for Joe will be far too immense for foreign interference or even judicial interference to work.

You do know that?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonaldsRump (Reply #48)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 08:24 AM

54. Good-spirited DUers

Good-spirited DUers are glad that Biden has a +7 % advantage nationally.

HOWEVER, this means little in terms of acquiring electoral college votes in states where Biden's win may be only 1-2%. As Mary Trump warned, DJT will pursue a scorched earth plan in PA, WI, MI, AZ, FL, maybe TX, with an army of lawyers. Nothing that happens in NY or CA can make any difference. Federal judges are independent of the popular vote.

And in FL, WI, TX, PA the state courts and legislatures are controlled by RW evangelicals. It is foolish to underestimate these powerful forces.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:02 PM

2. Excellent analysis Dr. Jack!

Hoping it proves true

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:03 PM

3. Your words to God's ears....

I sooooo hope you're right.

Nine days and counting....

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:09 PM

4. Agreed. I like your analysis, especially about the money. Nobody is backing Trump with $$$. nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:13 PM

5. Could you please direct me to where Silver is saying that...?

I follow 538 pretty closely, but I must have missed that one.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:19 PM

10. It was in his podcast

It's about an hour long but worth a listen. All of my Nate Silver related points are found somewhere in this podcast

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-national-and-district-level-polls-disagree-about-how-close-the-2020-election-is/

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:35 PM

13. Is this the podcast where he talked about "herding"

It was a little dense and I fell asleep to it.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:14 PM

6. I want Joe to win the electoral votes. The popular vote is Joe's no doubt.

that is where it counts. And I hope its early in the night, and so massive there is no chance for recounts anywhere that would make a difference.
Last election I fell asleep and woke up to a nightmare. I never want to repeat that scenario.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to peacebuzzard (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:19 PM

9. +

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:17 PM

7. I hope it's the largest defeat to an incumbent in history.

Double whatever the record is.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to 2naSalit (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 05:03 PM

19. That's probably Taft in 1912

He got only 23% of the vote, but it was a three-way split.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to 2naSalit (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:31 PM

25. That's what I'm hoping for. A humiliating defeat for the moron.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to 2naSalit (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:37 PM

28. Agreed

I hope it is a soul crushing (not that republicans have a soul) defeat of epic proportions. I want Joe to win 63 states, 12 territories and 3 planets. I want the republicans face held down in the mud and stepped on for all the evil they have done to this country.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #28)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 07:38 PM

49. Absolutely agreed. Couldn't have said it better. nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to 2naSalit (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 08:59 AM

56. That record will not likely be beaten

Sadly it was when Jimmy Carter lost 44 states and won 6 (plus DC)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:17 PM

8. Biden WILL BE my President.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:27 PM

11. Forgot to also mention election day turnout

Coronavirus is really flaring up again, might be the worst round yet. I do wonder if by election day if turnout will be lower than expected due to coronavirus fears. The Republicans are expecting all of their turnout on election day. If it's suppressed, even a little bit, by a coronavirus surge then Trump is absolutely fucked.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:48 PM

41. When you consider that...

He has already probably personally infected up to a tenth of his base so far and they are cross-infecting each other... could be a lot of folks too sick to make it to the polls. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out. There's still plenty of time!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to 2naSalit (Reply #41)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 09:59 PM

50. The Infector-In-Chief

is timing it perfectly

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:30 PM

12. I'm not counting any chickens just yet.

Hope you’re right.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:37 PM

14. One more factor:

8. The third wave surge of infections of predicted to crest right around Election Day; if the majority of Election Day voters are Trump supporters, this peak in the virus could suppress turnout and increase Biden’s margin.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:49 PM

15. Turn around three times and spit

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to nycbos (Reply #15)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:34 PM

26. Yes, never tempt the

karma of the Great Whatever from High Atop The Thing............

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to nycbos (Reply #15)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 07:06 PM

45. nycbos....

That West Wing scene is HYSTERICAL!!!! I'm one of the few who has never seen this show, and I know I'd loved it....Thanks for the post....

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:56 PM

16. Plausible for sure.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:57 PM

17. Agree on everything but GOP turnout.

Silver has said he thinks it will likely be very high. So has Harry Enten.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 04:59 PM

18. Great analysis.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 05:08 PM

20. Vote like he'll lose if you don't vote.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 05:10 PM

21. A blow out of epic proportions is coming

Great post

Rec

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 05:18 PM

22. I agree. But nobody should be taking it for granted. GOTV.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 05:23 PM

23. Even 538 says there is a 30% chance of a landslide. nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 05:27 PM

24. What I find funny is that Trump's base doesn't believe the polls because of last time and so they

betting a lot of money for Trump to win. How glorious that his most hardcore idiot supporters are going to get reamed on the betting sites.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:36 PM

27. The prediction below was made Sat, April 11.this year..It says Trump will lose "ALL ELECTORAL VOTES"

hit this link to see this prediction....yes April 11 ...in creative speculation


https://www.democraticunderground.com/113512426

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Stuart G (Reply #27)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:42 PM

35. Now that's putting it out there!

I absolutely love this prediction. Zero Electoral College votes. Yes!!!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:37 PM

29. I will not believe dump

Is gone until I see it. Until then all predictions are just that.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:39 PM

30. Polling models don't account for voter suppression

Where it's close, the GOP wins. They keep millions from voting. Polls don't account for that.

I hope people are volunteering to make phone calls. That is how we win. It's the only way we win. Feeling good about polls doesn't do anything to further our prospects of winning. As Biden says, we run like we are ten points behind.

Sign up here: https://www.mobilize.us/

I'm been making calls for months, and I've increased my shifts for GOTV. We need volunteers more now than ever. Everyone, please do your part.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:40 PM

31. Very well reasoned.

Thank you for putting this together.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:40 PM

32. I certainly hope so.

I have already voted for Democrats, only for Democrats. As usual.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:41 PM

33. The street corner crowds are gone

In 2016, I was often dismayed to see crowds of trump supporters on street corners in my neck of the woods, very enthusiastically stumping for their guy. Not this year.
I think the stigma of being a trump supporter has taken hold on the general population. It's a "do you really want to stand with them" kind of thing. This cycle's supporters, while there may be still quite a few, are the ones who have been distilled by four years of lying, incompetence, and corruption all around them. It takes a toll.
And yes, this year there are many 4 x 8 plywood signs hung on 4x4 posts in front of many businesses here. A tent stand seemed to be doing fairly good business the other day in Stuart, FL selling trump crap. But people putting their faces on it? Not so much.
I think most Americans are embarrassed by the idiot and by the idiot supporters.
We shall see...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:41 PM

34. I like your#7. One analyst said that it's the down ballot that reveals everything.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:43 PM

36. I likewise think Biden/Harris will win...

... some states that are currently shown to be slightly in Trump's favor, such as Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.

We'll know in about 9 days!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:43 PM

37. as long as Biden voters cast their ballots before election day

If the deciding number of ballots are not casted by Nov.,3. The risk is enormous. Anything can happen on election day. The most important message is to vote early, election day voting should be absolutely last resort. I never voted on election day and would not advise it to anyone. Vote early, by mail or person!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:44 PM

38. Thank you for this!

The part about the Republican-leaning polls overestimating Trump's support reminded me very much of 2012, when the RW had their own little reality-bubble with their own polls that showed Romney likely to beat Obama.

My boss at the time was a conservative - not a hateful racist/homophobic one, but of the libertarian type common among straight white Gen X dudes from fairly privileged backgrounds, so while we sparred about politics it wasn't usually very aggressive. He said to me, "Well, I just want you to be prepared, you might be upset tomorrow. I understand, but please don't bring it into the office." He really thought Obama was going to lose.

I just nodded and said, "I think I'll be fine." Sure enough, I was!


This time around, I think you have to be pretty far gone into the cult to even think Trump's chances are good at all. Minimizing it by, "well, yeah, he'll probably lose - but it won't be a humiliating landslide!" is already admitting more than I would expect mainstream RW pundits to do.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Withywindle (Reply #38)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:54 PM

42. Yes! Very similar to what I observed...

... at work in 2012.

Some RW coworkers were so deeply encapsulated in their own misinformation bubbles, they were truly shocked by the results. It's not like the polling averages or projections were inaccurate. Their problem was ignoring everything that was considered "mainstream" in that regard.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:45 PM

39. Obstacles include turnout, counting, litigating, leaving

Anyone who thinks this will be smooth is naive imo. If it's too good to be true .... and while we've thwarted lies, postal plots, litigation, they could still be, and are, up to something else. Could even be something crazy like a Bund network in polling operations.

I could go on and on, but I think I'm catching paranoia. Is it contagious?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:47 PM

40. I think Trump's approval rating for the past four years has remained fairly steady

It fluctuated but within a fairly small margin. Trump hasn't been adding voters since 2016, he's just retained the ones he's got. That's my tell. Had we seen him edging towards 50% at any time during his presidency, I'd say, look out, the shadow-lurkers may just upset the apple cart yet again. But I think the light has been shed on the cockroaches and we have a fairly good idea of how many of them we need to exterminate the infestation.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:54 PM

43. I'm lifted by your reasoning

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:58 PM

44. I agree

We tend to forget just how close the election was in 2016 (yes, I know Hillary won the popular vote). Trump won by 11,000 votes in Michigan, 22,000 in Wisconsin, and 44,000 in Pennsylvania. If Biden wins all of Hillary’s states and takes back those three, he wins. I think Pennsylvania and Michigan have already swung back. Wisconsin is a tougher nut to crack, but Biden has other paths through Arizona and NC. I don’t realistically see Trump picking up any state he didn’t win in 2016.

2016 was a perfect storm of Russian interference, Comey’s late announcement of yet another email “scandal” and 25 years of Republicans demonizing Hillary. None of that applies this time. Plus, people have now seen 4 years of Trump’s “performance” as President.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 07:09 PM

46. You Could Very Well be Right. Two Big Things That the Dems Got Wrong in 2016 Were:

1) Hillary Clinton's low likeability factor, and how much latent hate and resentment there was against her and her hubby - and how much Trump was able to whip that up out of all proportion to reality. All it took were Hillary Clinton's emails, and a great many voters voted for Trump because "they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Hillary".

2) The awesome power of the boob tube over the American voter, and how that one TV show - The Apprentice - could cultivate a false image of Trump as a successful billionaire businessman and super deal maker. So much so that the vast majority of voters didn't even bother to do the most basic research into his past track record as a businessman and real estate developer in New York, which would quickly have revealed his abysmal failures and unethical business practices.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 10:33 PM

51. Me too. Thank you.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 10:49 PM

52. I'm certainly hoping the polls are conservative this cycle

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 10:53 PM

53. There is no James Comey to destroy his opponent this time.

And nobody takes William Barr seriously, so whatever swift boating he may have planned will not have the desired effect.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 08:41 AM

55. Yes, I've been saying pretty much the same thing

Nice rundown of political facts.

The 2016 Election Day demographic snapshot became obsolete within days of Clinton's stunning Electoral College defeat. Reaction against Trump has been building steadily across the nation ever since. The turnout surge now is a reflection of that plus disgust over Trump's non-handling of the pandemic. It is not hidden Trump voters who didn't come out for him in 2016 but are eager to do so now. I posted this in late August:

"Reasons why Trump's 2016 upset will not be repeated"
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214001216

Virtually everything that has happened since then has only strengthened that view.

Under the current set of circumstances we have nothing to fear from over confidence. Broadcasting the handwriting on the wall only serves to depress some potential Trump voters into not venturing out to vote on Election Day during a pandemic. Meanwhile complacency is being rejected by Democratic voters even in areas that are solidly blue. People are standing in lines for hours in New York City to be sure they play their role in demolishing Trump and the Republican Party that enabled him. Emotionally, Democrats are eager to bury this President under a landslide. And we will.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 11:33 AM

57. From your lips to God's ear

 

I agree and I've thought that for over two years now, long before Biden got in the race. I knew he'd be the Democrat candidate back in 2017. I think it will be a slaughter. People are so sick of the lying fraud that they'd be willing to do almost anything to get rid of Trump. Here's to hope! Mtbar

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread