Anyone has any idea about NY-11 Max Rose chance (Staten Island/south Brooklyn district)

[Claustrum]

There is still no polling for NY-11 this cycle. There were only 2 polls back in 2018.

My assumption is the house seat will go to the party that wins on the presidential level.

Have anyone heard anything about this race? Or if someone has a different view on this race?

[beastie boy]

1. Just a hunch by a supporter who is voting for him, but it appears his campaign is stronger this time

than it was two years ago. He is now an incumbent who is better funded, has more media presence, appears more confident, and is running against a weaker opponent. Also, as a personal observation, his district appears a bit less conservative than it was two years ago, or perhaps it's because his supporters appear more visible and vocal. I am hopeful.

[Claustrum]

2. Thanks!

I've seen many more Rose's ads than his opponent's online. Do you think the district will vote for Biden or Trump? I still think the vote total will mirror the votes on the presidential level.

[beastie boy]

3. I think the vote between Trump and Biden will split evenly, favoring Trump slightly.

There are a lot of traditionally conservative white voters in his district. They may, like many New Yorkers, dislike Trump, but will not get themselves to vote for Biden. It has a lot to do with the way politics have been conducted here for years. If Biden gets this district, it would be thanks to the large population of previously agnostic recent immigrants who may decide to become politically active, as well as significant number of young people moving into the Brooklyn part of Rose's district.

[musette_sf]

4. Just saw a post in a Bay Ridge group on FB

that someone stole her Max Rose yard sign. So yeah, the Rs think he has a chance.

[Trumpocalypse]

5. Just got mail from Rose

All about him working well with Trump. Great way to turn off democratic voters.

[FreepFryer]

6. Sounds about right, When it comes to party unity Rose is like Tulsi without Russian money. Nt

[Trumpocalypse]

9. And without the hair lol

[FreepFryer]

14. LOL!

[FreepFryer]

32. Great post thank you celerity !

[Celerity]

40. yw

[beastie boy]

49. From the same sourceShorefront News is quoting:

Rose’s politics are decidedly liberal, even if his rhetoric feels spiky and nonpartisan. He is an unapologetic defender of unions (a prerequisite to win on Staten Island), he supports a public health care option (just not the abolishment of private insurance), he believes the eligibility age for Medicare should be dramatically lowered (to somewhere between 50 and 55), and he refuses to accept campaign donations from corporate PACs and lobbyists (the NRA is a bunch of “bandits with blood money”).

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/max-rose-donald-trump-house-democrats-impeachment-inquiry

It's easy to pick and choose for the most sensational effect.... maybe that's the reason I picked and chose from the same article

[beastie boy]

56. Certain corners pushing certain candidates in flaming blue districts is way outside the scope of

this thread. And Tulsi is hardly a fitting comparison to Rose. While I agree with you on these issues, I want to keep my comments limited to Rose and his campaign. Rose is running in a district that has been staunchly conservative for generations, and he turned it blue. If you were considering a hypothetical Democratic candidate who is decidedly liberal yet capable of turning a red district blue, an unapologetic defender of unions, a supporter of public health care option, believes the eligibility age for Medicare should be lowered to the age of 50, who refuses to accept campaign donations from corporate PACs and lobbyists, and who would vote to impeach Trump despite his reservations, would you hold his approval of Trump's executive order on antisemitism against him? I wouldn't.

You may object, as I do, to Rose's professed zero allegiance to the Democratic Party, but in this objection, would you overlook his record that strongly aligns with the left wing of the Democratic Party?

[beastie boy]

60. You did raise the issue of certain corners flooding in and tryng toshove a centre to centre-right

candidates in blue districts, didn't you? Curiously and inexplicably, you did it in the context of a center to center left Democrat running in a red district, trying to draw parallels between the two. You may address what you posted, if you wish, and never mind Gabbard.

[beastie boy]

62. Glad you are making yourself clear.

Your non-linear responses to my posts threw me off a bit. I got an impression that they had some connection to Rose. If I understand you correctly now, you did not intend to draw parallels between the aforementioned "certain corners" and Rose's campaign, and your criticisms of Rose (some of which I share) are not intended to belittle his accomplishments or his record in the House.

[brooklynite]

57. This is from four years ago...

What in his voting history is supportive of Trump?

[Celerity]

59. It's not from 4 years ago, it's from October 2020. Why do you post such instantly debunked untruths?

4 years ago Rose was still 2 years away from even being in the US House of Representatives .

I even posted a screen shot that clearly shows this is not from 4 years ago.

Going forward, please look at dates before accusing me of something that isnt true.

Cheers



PS

Here is the Vanity Fair article as well, from October 9, 2020.


“F--k You and Your Analytics”: Brash Max Rose Wants More “Show Business” in the Democratic Party

PETER HAMBY

OCTOBER 9, 2020 1:48 PM

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/10/max-rose-wants-more-democratic-show-business

[Claustrum]

7. Ack, does he really believe there will be republicans that will break for him?

It's one thing to oppose De Blasio but it's another to say you are working well with Trump. Oh well, he is still way better than having a republican rep.

[Trumpocalypse]

11. Why?

He supports Trump but not Pelosi. How is that better?

[Claustrum]

13. So are you telling me that I shouldn't vote for him so his republican opponent could win?

It's unfortunate but this district can't rely solely on democrats to win. He needs some republicans or independents to win. Max would never be AOC.

[Trumpocalypse]

17. No I'm asking what is the difference

if someone publicly supports Trump and opposes Pelosi?

[Claustrum]

19. The difference is, Like another poster said, he actually votes 97% with Nancy Pelosi.

Another difference is, the roads was crap under Dan Sullivan (the republican that had the seat before Max). I had to call 311 very often and wait a long time to get the potholes fixed. I haven't needed to call 311 since Max took office.

Yes, Max Rose does a lot of political theaters because the district requires him to do it. I don't like it. But if he gets re-elected and my life is better under him, why not?

[Trumpocalypse]

29. Members of Congress have nothing to do with roads.

That’s local government.

And the other poster said the 97% came from his Republican opponent so it can’t be blindly accepted as true.

[Claustrum]

43. I just did a quick search and compared Max Rose and Nancy Pelosi's voting record.

The result is 96%.

https://projects.propublica.org/represent/members/R000613-max-rose/compare-votes/P000197-nancy-pelosi/116

[Trumpocalypse]

55. That's great

But most are not going to do that same research. Publicly embracing Trump while attacking other Democrats is just going to piss off democratic voters. Not a great strategy.

[beastie boy]

8. Funny, I just got mail from Nicole Malliotakis, his Republican opponent.

She says Rose voted with Nancy 97% of the time. Go figure!

Rose represents a very peculiar district. He says what he says, and does what he does. Judge him by his record, not his mailers.

[Claustrum]

10. LOL... Rose's canvass people just dropped off Max's mailer at my house a few minutes ago

[FreepFryer]

12. Attacking Democrats is what he does to play up to GOP Staten islanders.

Last time it was Speaker Pelosi, and she set him and her other internal agitators straight when the term began.

Rep. Max Rose Seeks 2nd Term by Targeting Fellow Democrat: De Blasio

The Republican candidate is Nicole Malliotakis, but in a conservative congressional district, Mr. Rose is also happy to run against the mayor.

At just six seconds, the campaign ad has to be among the shortest and most blunt in political history.

“Bill de Blasio is the worst mayor in the history of New York City,” Representative Max Rose says. “That’s the whole ad.”

Mr. Rose, a first-term congressman who represents Staten Island and part of South Brooklyn, is not running against Mr. de Blasio, his fellow Democrat.

But his criticism of the mayor underscores the challenge that Mr. Rose faces in his first re-election bid, a race that is the Republican Party’s only realistic chance for gaining a House seat in New York City in November.

His actual opponent is Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican member of the State Assembly who, by coincidence, challenged Mr. de Blasio unsuccessfully when he ran for re-election in 2017. But in a sense, Mr. Rose is running against both of them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/nyregion/max-rose-nicole-malliotakis.html

[beastie boy]

18. DeBlazio is just one Democrat, not "Democrats".

Part of the job description for any NYC mayor is to be attacked, right, left and center. That's the way it's always been. And let's face it, DeBlazio is far from being a perfect mayor, just like Rose is far from being a perfect congressman. Having said this, however, I have no problem reconciling my full support for both of them.

[Claustrum]

21. Right on.

I think my complaint of DeBlasio is way worst than Rose's. But I still proudly voted for him. I can disagree with him but I fully understand that he is better than the republican alternative.

[FreepFryer]

25. He lost me ganging up on Pelosi (D). Bad judgment, not GOP but hopefully not around much longer (Nt)

[Claustrum]

26. I definitely found quite a few things that Max Rose did or said that I disagree with.

But until there is a better alternative, I am going to vote for him. I want the district to stay blue.

[FreepFryer]

34. I would rather the Democrats learn the lesson not to win districts by running against the caucus

Idealistic but Rose sucks and I’d rather a more capable and sharp-minded Democrat win back the seat during a time of strong House control.

[Claustrum]

37. Ideally, I agree.

But I wonder how possible it is for a republican leaning district.

I see it as the same song and dance that Susan Collins and Lisa M do. They pander and act like an independent once in a while, while they will go back to the party line at the end, like Max's reluctant stance on impeachment. You do what is best for the demographic of the district.

[JonLP24]

35. How is DeBlazio worse compared to Giuliani or stop-and-frisk Bloomberg?

I would be happy with someone like DeBlazio in my home state.

[FreepFryer]

36. Seriously. The goal posts get pushed and folks forget the GOP talking points they reinforce. Nt

[Dorian Gray]

44. DeBlasio stinks in so many ways...

Even here in liberal Park Slope, de Blasio is not a fan favorite. In Bay Ridge and Staten Island, slamming him is a winning strategy. Rose is doing what he's gotta do to get it done.

[Renew Deal]

15. His ads are so RW you would think he's a republican.

That said, he's better than the alternative.

[Claustrum]

16. It's sad. But that's what he needs to do if he wants any of the independent votes.

He can't rely solely on democratic votes to win. So he has to go against the party line once in a while. People in Staten Island seriously believe in the Socialist, anti-police attack ads. We are attacking him on his pro-police stance, and all of the RW ads are saying he is defunding the police. So he had to take a hard stance on that.

[Trumpocalypse]

20. Not his pro-police ads

but his pro-Trump ads. They are not a good way to help him with Democratic voters.

[Claustrum]

22. What pro-Trump ads? I haven't seen them

Can you describe what they actually say? If it's just a one-liner "I work well with Trump". I will overlook it as pandering for the middle people.

[Trumpocalypse]

30. Well there is this one

Plus the mailer.

[Celerity]

50. You are pushing a big Trump lie. Biden and Dems said that Trump waiting until MARCH to ban travel

from Europe, whilst slamming China and calling it the Kung Flu, etc etc was xenophobic. Biden never said the ban per se was racist.

The first cases of COVID came in via EUROPE, not China, and Trump's so called China ban wa a joke, as 40,000 people or more still kept coming in.


https://edition.cnn.com/factsfirst/politics?id=factcheck_8df18b2a-26ab-4d33-ba13-2c4a4e45b23c&iid=ffembed%3Acard



https://edition.cnn.com/factsfirst/politics?id=factcheck_bc3637c5-2022-4d75-9641-f514b90fe203

[Claustrum]

52. Thanks for the clarification. I never meant it in the same way Trump did.

I clearly think some of Trump's criticism on the matter is racist based. And I think there is at least a portion of talking heads and congress people that gave me the impression that they are making a general point "Trump's travel ban is racist" and I disagree with that. But I always thought Biden or Pelosi's argument is more nuanced and Trump is clearly taking it out of context.

And I definitely think the Chinese ban is more a show than an effective policy. The debacle that rushed many Americans to rush back that created huge crowds at the airport with no testing and contact tracing might have worsen the matter.

[Celerity]

54. and now I see where you could have thought I was saying you were wilfully doing it,

which I did NOT mean at all. I am sorry if you took it as such, I came on a little hot.

cheers

Cel

[Marius25]

23. I heard turnout is pretty high

on Staten Island. Fairly long lines which isn't typical for that borough.

[Claustrum]

24. Thanks for the report.

I expected turnout to be high for the first few days of early voting. I am waiting till mid week next week to vote.

Hopefully the high turnout will mean good news for Biden and him.

[NorthOf270]

27. I just don't see it flipping.

[Claustrum]

28. You mean flipping for Trump?

The district actually voted for Trump in 2016.

It was actually a surprised win in 2018. I definitely didn't expect Rose to win in 2018.

[NorthOf270]

38. Flipping to the Repug challenger

You asked about Rose.

The climate is bad for the thugs.

[Claustrum]

39. Ah, sorry.

My assumption is the district will go Trump (like 2016) and thus the republican will get the house seat.

I hope you are right and we get a repeat of 2018 and Biden will win the district as well.

[NorthOf270]

41. Trump may lose it

Staten Island is exactly the place in NYC in 2016 I'd expect Trump to win but the dummies should now see he's a con man.

[Dorian Gray]

42. His opoonant

is the consummate NY republican loser. There isn't a race she won't enter and lose.

I suspect that good old fashioned misogyny will play a role, too. Max Rose will most likely win this race.

[Azathoth]

45. Pro-Trump turnout is going to be very high on the Island

The GOP is 110% in on Trump. Everything I've heard anecdotally has Rose fighting for his life. I'm guessing his internals have him down a few points based on his increasingly desperate embrace of Trump.

[Claustrum]

46. Judging from this thread, his pro-Trump stance seems to hurt him more than help him.

[Azathoth]

47. Amongst DUers. I doubt it hurts him in Staten Island

But with that said, you only run against your own party when your back is against the wall. If his internals had him up, he'd be closing with a generic "We can come together and do better" line.

[Claustrum]

48. I agree with your analysis.

He definitely needs more than just the democratic base to win and thus his "come together" message. That's sad because it could mean the district will go Trump again.

That said, I think he started going against some of the party line as soon as he took office. So I didn't think it's particularly different from his previous stance. After all, he ran the "I will work with the other party" message even back in 2018.