Why this isn't like 2016

[Drunken Irishman]

Hi.

Lots of chatter about 2016 today. Ari Melber was over on MSNBC comparing swing state polls from four years ago to polls today as proof the race is tight and holy shit Biden could still lose.

Let me be clear: this race is not over. Biden can still lose. But Obama could have lost in 2008 and Clinton in 1996. Like everything, outside death, really, it's not a guarantee.

But this is not 2016 and it's not fair to compare it to 2016.

First, and most importantly, 11 days out from the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton led by an average of 44.9 to 41.1 - or a margin of just 3.8 points. Today, 11 days out, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by an average of 50.8 to 42.8. Or a margin of 8 points.

Joe Biden, currently, is doing 5.9 points better than Hillary was 11 days out. Trump is only doing 1.7 points better than four years ago.

Two, Joe Biden is ahead nationally with 50+% of the vote in a four-way race. In 2016, Hillary never hit 50%. In fact, for most the race, she mostly stayed under 45%. That was a sign that the mood of the country was not necessarily in her corner.

BUT DRUNKY WHAT ABOUT THE SWING STATES WE ALL KNOW THE POPULAR VOTE DON'T MATTER

Sure - but Biden isn't losing this race if he wins the popular vote by 8+ points.

But I'll humor you fools.

Let's just focus on the three states Biden & Trump both need to win:

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, 11 days out, Hillary led 46.3 to 41.3 - or five points.

Today, 11 days out, Biden leads 49.6 to 44.5 - or five points.

MY GOD IT'S THE SAME HOLY SHIT

Calm little one. It'll be okay.

The big difference here is that Biden is polling at 49.6, or rounded, 50%. Hillary was not. There was also 12.4% of the vote in 2016 who were either undecided or voting for another candidate. That number right now is just 5.1%.

Trump would literally have to win every single one of those votes to make up his deficit. In 2016, you could clearly see that there was enough 'other' votes for Trump to make up that five-point deficit even without winning them all (and most going to third party candidates as opposed to Hillary).

Not ideal.

In Wisconsin, Hillary was doing a bit better. She led Trump, 11 days out, 47-40.5 - or a 6.5 lead. Today, according to RCP, Biden leads 49.6 to 44.5, or a 5.1 lead. So, yes, Hillary's margins were better in Wisconsin. But again, as was the case in Pennsylvania, Biden is leading with basically 50%. In 2016 at this point, the undecided/third party vote was ... 12.5 - or basically exactly as it was in Pennsylvania. Currently, it's just 5.9 - or slightly more than in Pennsylvania. Again, you're seeing a situation where the undecided/others was well beyond the actual margin of the polls. In this instance, for Trump to win Wisconsin, he would need to win all those votes - every last one. A few even go third party or to Biden and he cannot feasibly win.

In Michigan, it's much worse for Trump. In 2016, Hillary led 46.8 to 39.8 11 days out. That was a margin of seven. Currently, Biden leads 50.4 to 42.6 - or a 7.8 margin. Similar, right? But I know you're sensing the trend here and I don't need to spell it out for you but I will: Once again, Biden is at 50% and Hillary was well below it. More importantly, in 2016 11 days out, the undecided/other voters made up 13.4% of voters - even more than in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That's compared to seven currently. Granted, that's the margin Biden leads but again, Trump would need to gobble up all those voters to win and it's just not likely. Even in 2016, while gobbling up huge chunks of those undecided voters, many also went third party. It's why Hillary, at 47% 11 days out ... finished at 47% in Michigan and Trump increased from 39.8 to 47 in the final results.

What does this mean? The pool of undecided/third party voters is roughly half of what it was in 2016.

That's significant because that's where Trump really was able to get his votes - and where Hillary lost her's (third party).

Three, 11 days before the election, the Comey Letter dropped. It was a devastating moment that changed the trajectory of the race. Despite attempts, there has not been a moment in this race that has been, or likely will be, comparable.

Fourth, and this ties into the third, Hillary was losing momentum heading into the final week of the campaign. After the Access Hollywood tape's release, Hillary's lead ballooned to 7 points in a four-person race. This was on October 17th. About ten days later, as I mentioned, even before the Comey Letter, that lead had dropped below 4 points.

Joe Biden has the momentum. Way more momentum than Hillary had at the end of the campaign. She was struggling even before the Comey Letter, though did lead in the battle grounds. Finally, though...

Fifth, the battle ground polls were light post-Comey.

Counting the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell tracking poll as one poll, there was only five polls post-Comey Letter published in Michigan. That's a very small level of polls after such a dramatic event. Especially for 11 days out.

That FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell tracking is interesting, though.

It was +9 for Hillary just after the Comey Letter dropped. Their next poll, released on Halloween, had Clinton +6, then +5 a day later and again, ended at +5 but there was clear indication that things were maybe slipping - but not enough sample to catch it.

I doubt that will be a problem this go around.

Ultimately, we need to take the threat of a Trump second term seriously but his winning was like catching lightning in a bottle and everything that existed for him in 2016 does not exist for him right now.

He's down big in the national vote. He's down, or tied, in states he won easily four years ago. He's wounded. He's in trouble. He doesn't have the momentum he had four years ago.

And more importantly, Hillary didn't have 30+ million votes banked for her 11 days out like Biden does currently. Over 50 million people have cast their ballot. That's obscene. Those votes are counted. Most are likely for Joe Biden (though, not all, and I readily admit as much).

That alone is huge.

But everything else outlined above? It paints a very different picture than what we were facing four years ago.

If you want my take on polls from the Comey debacle in 2016, you can find a post from November, 2016, just days before the election, where I cautioned that, while Hillary was still likely to win, there was a very real possibility she might not:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/12512568719

Thank you.

[MaryMagdaline]

1. Thank you for this!

[Demsrule86]

2. [phone] thanks...K&R

[ColoradoBlue]

3. This is great

Thank you for this rundown. I'm starting to feel some glimmers of hope but then I just try to ignore it. It FEELS like we're going to be okay but seeing the facts as you have laid them out here gives validity to that feeling. I think we're all still shellshocked, four years later, and we can't bear to go through the gut punch of that day again. So we're bracing ourselves for any possibility.

Still...I have a bottle of champagne that I've bought VERY early for New Year's Eve and if I happen to have a chance to open it for something else before then, I'm prepared!

[Turin_C3PO]

4. Thank you for laying this all out for us.

Another thing I wanted to note is that Hillary Clinton had been smeared by Republicans for thirty years. Biden faces no such obstacle.

[Sugarcoated]

5. Awesome analysis

Thank YOU

[JI7]

6. Biden is a man and Hillary is a woman