Hispanic gender gap is more pronounced than gender gap among whites

[Awsi Dooger]

Carlos Odio doesn't tweet often but he's a very good follow. Steve Schale always says you aren't following the race if you don't follow Carlos Odio.

Odio has a research firm specializing in the Hispanic vote. Much needed. Today he tweeted a chart based on a New York Times article:

Link to tweet

Here's the summary from the Times article, which is linked in that tweet:

"Among Latina women, Biden leads Trump by a whopping 34 percentage points (59 percent to 25 percent). Among Latino men, Biden’s lead is only eight points (47 percent to 39 percent). These patterns are similar across both Latino college graduates and those without a degree.

"Stephanie Valencia, the president of Equis Research, which focuses on Latino voters, told us that its polls suggest that Latino men may have even moved slightly toward Trump this year. If so, they are the only large demographic group to do so."



"… what has alienated so many older, female and suburban voters is a key part of Mr. Trump’s appeal to these men, interviews with dozens of Mexican-American men supporting Mr. Trump shows: To them, the macho allure of Mr. Trump is undeniable. He is forceful, wealthy and, most important, unapologetic. In a world where at any moment someone might be attacked for saying the wrong thing, he says the wrong thing all the time and does not bother with self-flagellation."

***

If those numbers hold up, and the undecideds split, then Biden would win the Hispanic vote nationally by something like 22 points, roughly 60-38, given a couple of points to third party. Hillary won Hispanics by 38 points, 66-28. That's the reason a state like Florida is tighter than it otherwise should be, given so many areas that have shifted toward Biden.

This survey is interesting because Hispanics always tilt unusually toward a presidential incumbent, but I had never seen it broken down by gender. Maybe it has always been the males who are accounting for the bulk of that change.

On edit: I should have mentioned the polling was in battleground states, not nationwide. Very possible if not likely that Biden's lead among Hispanics is wider nationally (i.e. California) than in those battleground states. The 60-38 estimate might be a few points low, given that aspect.

[mainer]

1. WTF, guys???

Do we have to go all Lysistrata on you?

[hedda_foil]

2. Damnit! This primitive, ape-like hyper masculinity has to be purged from the human gene pool.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Agreed

Frustrates the hell out of me, especially on the golf course here in Miami. The young local Hispanic guys have Trump stickers plastered all over their cars.

Maybe it's not too late for Bloomberg or Lincoln Project to target ads specifically toward Hispanic males. I think I will mention it to them.

[Spider Jerusalem]

5. Locals in Miami are more likely to be Cuban/Venezuelan

which means they're likely to be more right-wing, generally.

[smirkymonkey]

4. +1000

He clearly hates them all, but their machismo is obviously more important to them than their rights, their dignity and ultimately, their lives. He would send them all to concentration camps if he could get away with it.

[comradebillyboy]

6. Don't you mean non-Hispanic whites?

An awful lot of Hispanics are white.

[UTUSN]

7. K&R

[Hortensis]

8. Very interesting! The usual half or more are going to be conservative by PERSONALITY;

and on top of that are the influences of culture, which in most Hispanic/LatinX groups of course is conservative dominant. Plus, men tend to be more conservative in general than women. Considering that a solid majority of Hispanic men, as well as many women, would much prefer to be able to vote for a conservative male president, Trump's doing as bad with them as he should be.

I'd like to see those who admire Trump examined for intelligence and also for bigotry against undocumented immigrants, which is as real among a lot of conservative Hispanics as it is among non-Hispanic cons. (As well as against others. Thought of an Indian/AA FEMALE VP must have a bunch of these trumpists spitting.) We don't need it, though, to know this subgroup is not exactly their best and brightest.

[JI7]

9. Sexism is a huge problem. There have been a number of black men like Ice Cube

who don't like the growing power and influence of black women .

You see this in every race .

There is a lot of sexism in many cultures.

I have seen many non white men that immigrate to western nations attack the women in their own communities for not being like the women in the old countries.