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(19,264 posts)
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:28 AM Oct 2020

Could we be getting to a bandwagon tipping point?

Often people will say ignore the polls and act like you are 10 points down. Largely that is nonsense. When a candidate is 10 pts down a lot of people will not contribute, not volunteer, and not even get off the couch and vote. A candidate being 10 pts down in the polls can lead to desertion and apathy meaning on election day the candidate loses by more than 10 pts and in the case of a Presidential race that leads to down ticket losses for his party.

It is why disciplined politicians even if they expect a loss try to at least keep the race close. Dumpy however have zero discipline and zero concern for anyone but himself. He doesn't really care if a bigger loss for him routs the GOP. Could we be seeing that playing out in 2020. Could Trump's disastrous inability to even make it a close loss affect down ticket races?

I don't know just putting it out there but it will be interesting to see on election night. Split tickets does happen but sometimes in protest people will just vote down the ticket. If they are motivated enough to go to the polls to elect Biden over Dumpy then they may be motivated to vote straight blue even if they are an Independent or Republican. Not everyone of course but elections are won or lost on the margin. An extra 2% in SC for example could put Harrison over the top.

a kennedy

(28,964 posts)
4. Me as well, a crushing, a crushing I tell ya.......
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:47 AM
Oct 2020



(30,613 posts)
2. I think the GOP discouragement factor will be a real thing.
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:35 AM
Oct 2020

And likewise, compared to 2016, the Dem excitement factor will be (is already, in early voting) a real motivator.


(7,771 posts)
3. I'm really hoping a whole mess of republicans just don't show up to the polls.
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:40 AM
Oct 2020

That's what I think is most likely, too.


(9,937 posts)
6. I am using the numbers for exactly that on my Fb to encourage the Biden voters and discourage
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:56 AM
Oct 2020

the Trumpers. Blue wave, all the way.


(1,086 posts)
7. Yes, we are probably past that point.
Thu Oct 22, 2020, 10:31 AM
Oct 2020

While I don't expect a massive late swing I do expect enough of one to make a difference. That will not be in Trump's favor.

But there is a noticeable decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters. Yes the top line numbers look the same but under that the a number who say they are Definitely(already) voting for has moved to likely and those from likely to probably. This down shifting is reversed with Biden as likelihood has increased. When you consider that Trump has pushed his voters towards same day voting this trend is probably enough to seal the deal for a "landslide".

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