HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Why is Trump making a sur...

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 05:27 AM

Why is Trump making a surprise recovery in the betting markets?

If you have been following WH2020 polling youíll be aware that the numbers are still very much with Biden at both a national and a state level.

But this is not being reflected in the current betting. What is the biggest political gambling event of all time as is shown in the Smarkets chart above and as can be seen the gap is closing.


https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/19/trump-making-surprise-recovery-in-the-wh2020-betting-even-though-most-pollsters-have-double-digit-biden-leads/


[link:
/photo/1|

15 replies, 1391 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 15 replies Author Time Post
Reply Why is Trump making a surprise recovery in the betting markets? (Original post)
Doodley Oct 20 OP
denbot Oct 20 #1
soothsayer Oct 20 #2
Rule of Claw Oct 20 #4
soothsayer Oct 20 #5
sunonmars Oct 20 #3
Zing Zing Zingbah Oct 20 #14
ProfessorGAC Oct 20 #6
octoberlib Oct 20 #7
Boogiemack Oct 20 #8
dewsgirl Oct 20 #15
sop Oct 20 #9
N_E_1 for Tennis Oct 20 #10
gab13by13 Oct 20 #11
kevink077 Oct 20 #12
mucifer Oct 20 #13

Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 05:28 AM

1. Because only idiots would bet on him.

Díuh.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 05:29 AM

2. I don't understand that either

Donít like it

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink



Response to Rule of Claw (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 05:34 AM

5. Ok thanks

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 05:29 AM

3. Any fool knows, biggest return would be betting on Trump right now for a fluke win

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to sunonmars (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 06:55 AM

14. Yeah, right...

They are betting on the long shot, just like people do with horse races. Gamblers love that kind of thing. They like to bet on the long shot because it would be a thrill if they got lucky and won big time. Betting for the likely winner is the boring, safe bet.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 05:42 AM

6. Because The Books Aren't Predicting Outcomes

They're trying to draw money from both sides. A blow out attracts little money from the side sure to lose.
Every see the line on a game between Alabama and some div 2 school doing a money grab and letting their students get pounded?
They set that line at AL at -48 or -52. Absolutely nobody would bet the game on the other side otherwise. The book would take all money in on Alabama and lose it all. So, they set a line to attract money on both sides minimizing their risk of loss & maximizing their profit.
This is no different.
They go out with 538 odds of 88:11, and they won't even attract money at 8:1, because in a binary bet, few will put money on the severe underdog. So, they adjust their odds to attract suckers either betting with their heart, or living with 5:1 when that's not a good bet.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 05:44 AM

7. Betting isn't voting and is meaningless.

Ignore it.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 05:49 AM

8. It's stock market handlers making the bets so as to keep the stock market from shattering.

Just hold on. People are still voting. Find a trusted poll and stick with it.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Boogiemack (Reply #8)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 06:56 AM

15. This is what I was thinking.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 06:05 AM

9. ESPN:"Jets still attracting Super Bowl bets..."

"Money on the New York Jets to win the Super Bowl showed up last week at Las Vegas sportsbooks." Hope springs eternal I guess.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 06:10 AM

10. I place a one dollar bet...

On the Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl every year. Winnings went to help purchase the next yearís tickets. Now guess itís the savings account.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 06:12 AM

11. So, I thought it was illegal to vote on the election?

That's what I read when looking for Vegas odds. Vegas has Biden winning. Is the stock market allowed to bet on the election but not Vegas?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 06:13 AM

12. Not a good indicator of anything...

People with unlimited cash can manipulate these numbers then make a killing betting then the other way. Betting markets should be taken with a grain of salt.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 06:22 AM

13. supreme court

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread