Back in 1984, when Mondale was certain to lose,

[My Pet Orangutan]

did that discourage you, or people you knew from voting? I did not vote out of misplaced animosity towards Frtiz. If I thought he had a chance, I would have held my nose, and pulled the lever.

The reason I am asking is we are starting to see 1984 caliber polling in favor of Biden. PPP estimates the margin could be as high as +18.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142607912

[WSHazel]

1. Big difference with that election

There was a lot more ticket splitting in the 80's. Reagan crushed Mondale, but Republicans actually lost a net of 2 Senate seats that year, and while they picked up 16 House seats, the Democrats still had a huge majority after the 1984 election.

There is also a lot more support for incumbents in a year like 1984 when everything is going well. You don't see big swings when there is an incumbent President on the ballot like you do when there isn't. Obama only won by 7.2% but he picked up net 8 Senators. Reagan won by 9% in 1980 and picked up 12 Senators.

A 10+ point Biden win could have HUGE coattails.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Reps don't believe in polls

If they did there could be a big suppression of Trump voters on their side who just don't bother to vote because they know Trump will lose. There will be some of that, but not much.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. I walked precincts for Mondale in 84; our county (Santa Cruz) was 1of 3 in CA for Mondale nt

[Silent3]

4. I missed the very first election I could have voted in, but I have voted in every election since

I vote because I should vote. I vote because I'm going to express my opinion no matter what, even if defeat seems certain. In a close election, I'll vote to value public good over self-expression, and choose the best candidate with a reasonable chance of winning, and not give into personal vanity or tilting at windmills -- no third-party, no write-ins.

I can't offer much personal insight into how people think who sometimes vote, sometimes can't be bothered to vote, because that's an alien way of thinking to me.

Using my imagination, I can imagine people who are now disgusted with Trump who supported him before, but who can't quite bring themselves to vote for a Democrat. How that relates to how they'll be counted in polls, if they'll vote at all, if they'll vote but go third party or write-in, it's hard to say.

My suspicion/hope is that Democrats are more motivated to vote this election than Republicans. The most rabid Trump supporters will of course vote, but they were always going to vote anyway. Despite all the noise they make, however, and the attention they get, there certainly are soft Trump supporters as well, not just fanatics. It's easier to imagine them not showing up to vote, or voting third party, than it is to imagine Democrats acting that way in this election.

[Polybius]

5. The big difference is the EC

Reagan won a staggering 525 or so Electoral Votes. Biden will get at best 350.