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Sat Oct 17, 2020, 09:49 PM

 

GA and PA-I Believe Joe Wins Both By More Than 5.

But he will likely win GA by more than PA. GA 8, PA 6.

At 36 percent of the white vote Joe gets to 55 percent in GA. He needs a minimum of 42 white to win by 5 in PA. His baseline to win GA is 29 white and PA is .40 white. He should be fine. But PA may underperform nationally by 4 points.

GA 53-45 Joe.

PA 52-46 Joe.

Bonus-his magic number with whites in Texas appears to be 34. Most polls have him in about the mid-30's.

My guess is he wins TX by 3.

His internals show PA at 4.4. lead. He is probably being conservative by two points, using a very restrictive turnout model, a rainy day scenario. Let's examine what 4.4 means. In PA about 6.4 million people I feel will vote.

That would equate to a 281k vote margin. That is a lot actually. We look at numbers in terms of sports, A field goal could win it! Not really. That is a large raw vote lead. That is a lot of depressed turnout that has to happen, a juiced Trump base, no-it is a lot of votes and I believe a solid lead.

4.4 to me represents the 2016 shy Trump voter assumption. I believe they are discounting off the top two points in every swing state.

Let's look at Q poll's OH poll. Right now I think Joe wins OH. He is at 43 in that poll with whites, and Obama won OH in 2012 with 41. I am saying, 1-3 points however. PA is more of a durable lead. Looking at different models, scenarios, max white college votes, max turnout, I believe he will win the state by a margin of around 385k votes.

More later on.

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Reply GA and PA-I Believe Joe Wins Both By More Than 5. (Original post)
Rule of Claw Oct 17 OP
Tribetime Oct 17 #1
underpants Oct 17 #2
vercetti2021 Oct 17 #3
Awsi Dooger Oct 17 #4
Laelth Oct 17 #5

Response to Rule of Claw (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 09:52 PM

1. I like the way you think 👌

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Response to Rule of Claw (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 10:02 PM

2. 👀💥 marking for later review

Very interesting

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Response to Rule of Claw (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 10:03 PM

3. If Joe wins GA

Does he pull Ossof and Warnock over the 50% threshold?

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Response to Rule of Claw (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 10:05 PM

4. Percentage of white vote is a good way to look at things

That's a relationship I check all the time, the difference between the white vote toward the Democrat and the percentage of conservatives. I'm not a believer in high Biden margin in Arizona partially because I don't know where it comes from. We've already been receiving a healthy share of the white vote in Arizona. Hillary got 40% there in 2016, which was equal or better than any current swing state other than Wisconsin (42%). Sinema got 45% of the white vote in Arizona in 2018 while winning by 2.4%.

You are correct that Georgia has plenty of room to grow in the white vote. Hillary received a ridiculous 21%, which was by far her lowest of any current swing state. Texas was next worst at 26%.

However, it seems a stretch to me to take Biden all the way up to 36% whites in Georgia. I don't see a number like that in my records. For example, Obama 23% in 2008, Abrams 25% in 2018...

I'm mostly watching college football so not exactly checking all the records. Maybe I'll look for more sample later.

I think you nailed the Pennsylvania estimate that Biden needs 42% of the white vote to feel comfortable. Hillary got 40% there, same as Iowa and Arizona.

But I think it also demonstrates that a gap of only 6% in the white vote between Georgia and Pennsylvania simply is not logical, given the 19% margin in the same category of 2016. Biden is worth a lot to Hillary-haters, but not that much, not in a state with 42% self-identified conservatives.

Excellent thread overall

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Response to Rule of Claw (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 10:06 PM

5. Interesting.

I still don’t think that Joe will win OH, but, otherwise, your predictions seem plausible.

They’re definitely encouraging. Thank you.

-Laelth

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