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Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:30 PM

The Swedish Covid-19 Model is a Disaster

The article points out that herd immunity is only achievable with a vaccine.

Average daily cases rose 173% nationwide from Sept. 2-8 to Sept. 30-Oct. 6 and in Stockholm that number increased 405% for the same period. Though some have argued that rising case numbers can be attributed to increased testing, a recent study of Stockholm’s wastewater published Oct. 5 by the Swedish Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) argues otherwise. An increased concentration of the virus in wastewater, the KTH researchers write, shows a rise of the virus in the population of the greater Stockholm area (where a large proportion of the country’s population live) in a way that is entirely independent of testing. Yet even with this rise in cases, the government is easing the few restrictions it had in place.

From early on, the Swedish government seemed to treat it as a foregone conclusion that many people would die. The country’s Prime Minister Stefan Löfven told the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter on April 3, “We will have to count the dead in thousands. It is just as well that we prepare for it.” In July, as the death count reached 5,500, Löfven said that the “strategy is right, I am completely convinced of that.” In September, Dr. Anders Tegnell, the Public Health Agency epidemiologist in charge of the country’s COVID-19 response reiterated the party line that a growing death count did “not mean that the strategy itself has gone wrong.”


https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

17 replies, 1166 views

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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:47 PM

1. The big brain species isn't managing Covid-19 very well.

Resurgence seems to be a recurring headline around the globe. My household will be sheltering-in-place all through 2021, I'm sure.

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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:47 PM

2. The only thing worse than jumping to the conclusion

that what Sweden is doing is a good idea is to jump to the conclusion that what Sweden is doing is a disaster. We need to study and learn. There will be trial and a lot of error. That is how science works. I won't listen to Trump and his band of malicious idiots, but we should be willing to listen to any scientifically based approach to beating Covid. That includes Sweden. Ignore what Republicans are saying about Sweden because they are mischaracterizing what Sweden is doing.

I am puzzled by how so many have the right answer already about a virus that is still kicking humanity's ass. We don't know how to beat Covid, and we shouldn't dismiss any scientific approach out of hand.

In particular, I am concerned about vaccines. The fastest vaccine to market took 4 years. Is humanity really about to beat that number by 75%? Seems unlikely. I do see are a lot of pharmas pumping their stock price with Covid vaccine happy talk.

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 01:05 PM

7. +1. Wise words, though personally I don't expect to see

the Swedish method pan out. Whether it does or not, science does need the time, funding and elbow room to come up with a fix.

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 02:12 PM

11. with you.

it isn't about choosing up sides, or who can shout the loudest. It's about trying to keep people alive (and healthy) long enough that we have some real solutions. Which we're not even particularly close to right now.

(I'm not a big fan of the "herd immunity" theory -- particularly with the uncertainties yet surrounding the "long covid" and long term effects -- but the larger point is that we don't have answers to a lot of questions yet. Sweden may turn out to be really, really wrong -- but what they're trying is not unscientific.)

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Response to stopdiggin (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 02:24 PM

12. It's not unscientific. But it accepts thousands of deaths as part of the solution.

And that's a cold-blooded, eugenic approach which simply accepts thinning of the herd.

Until there's a vaccine, trying to achieve herd immunity condemns millions to death.

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Response to mainer (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 02:39 PM

13. agree that it accepts deaths

not sure if "eugenics" is any more applicable here than it would be in, for instance, politicization on stem cell science? Or climate change? My point being -- the intersection(s) between science, ethics and politics -- is kind of murky.

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Response to mainer (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 02:57 PM

14. There is a huge difference between Trump's approach

and what Sweden is doing. There has been a lot of spiking the ball the last few months that has later been proven wrong. Sweden was great, then Sweden was terrible, then Sweden was great again, now we are not sure. Unless Trump mentions it, then people love or hate Sweden based on political affiliation.

We need better data analysis. The first thing that should have happened is harnessing big data analytics to find correlations between patient medical history and disease severity. But Trump didn't do shit so we are 8 months into a pandemic and we don't know shit.



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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:49 PM

3. They passed China in total number of cases a few weeks ago without much fanfare nt

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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:55 PM

4. They have a lower death rate than the US with Drumpf in charge

 

Which isn’t saying a lot.

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Response to Tyfairbanks600 (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 01:28 PM

9. A healthcare system that's available to everyone and..

Swedes are generally healthier than Americans. Who isn't outside of Kazakhstan. But as the virus circulates in the next couple months, the death total in real terms will be staggering. While Norway looks askance at them and asks...."What the fuck is wrong with you people?!"

OK, let's see what happens if we follow the Swedish plan and do little to nothing preventive. Latest studies show mortality rates between 0.5% and 1% of total infected, including those asymptomatic and / or untested.

Sweden can expect, with a 70% infection rate, between 35 and 72K total deaths. Possibly the low end, but unknown if their healthcare system is overwhelmed. And that's just direct Covid-19 deaths. That does not include preventable mortality from strokes, heart attacks or accidents where people can't get proper treatment because the system is overwhelmed.

Switch to the US, with 328M people, and we're talking 1.1 to 2.3 MILLION deaths. A catastrophe any way you slice it.

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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:59 PM

5. What shocks me is how they actually consign the elderly to death

They decided the elderly shouldn't take up space in hospitals.

Many sick elderly were not seen by a doctor because the country’s hospitals were implementing a triage system that, according to a study published July 1 in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, appeared to have factored in age and predicted prognosis. “This likely reduced [intensive care unit] load at the cost of more high-risk patients”—like elderly people with confirmed infection—dying outside the ICU.” Only 13% of the elderly residents who died with COVID-19 during the spring received hospital care, according to preliminary statistics from the National Board of Health and Welfare released Aug.

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Response to mainer (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 01:11 PM

8. Consigning the elderly to death

is happening here by default. Some 40% of our Covid-19 deaths are of residents and staff of nursing homes.

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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 01:01 PM

6. The strategy hasn't gone wrong at all....

It simply reiterates that this Swedish government is willing to kill its own citizens for a buck. And it will explode beyond anything they've experienced so far as Swedes go inside for the long, cold, dark winter. They'll overwhelm their healthcare system and stack the dead like cord wood by late December. But..hey....that's OK. That's the plan.

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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 01:38 PM

10. Here's what's really crazy: Sweden recommends AGAINST MASKS.

Sweden actually recommends against masks everywhere except in places where health care workers are treating COVID-19 patients (some regions expand that to health care workers treating suspected patients as well). Autumn corona outbreaks in Dalarna, Jönköping, Luleå, Malmö, Stockholm and Uppsala hospitals are affecting both hospital staff and patients. ..

All of this creates a situation which leaves teachers, bus drivers, medical workers and care home staff more exposed, without face masks at a time when the rest of the world is clearly endorsing widespread mask wearing.

On Aug. 13, Tegnell said that to recommend masks to the public “quite a lot of resources are required. There is quite a lot of money that would be spent if you are going to have masks.” Indeed, emails between Tegnell and colleagues at the Public Health Agency and Andreas Johansson of the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs show that the policy concerns of the health authority were influenced by financial interests, including the commercial concerns of Sweden’s airports.

Swedavia, the owner of the country’s largest airport, Stockholm Arlanda, told employees during the spring and early summer they could not wear masks or gloves to work. One employee told Upsala Nya Tidning newspaper on Aug. 24 “Many of us were sick during the beginning of the pandemic and two colleagues have died due to the virus. I would estimate that 60%-80% of the staff at the security checks have had the infection.”

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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 03:24 PM

15. Herd immunity is stupid

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 04:51 PM

17. Bingo, if u need 60% of the herd to be infected, there are acceptable losses in cattle, not humans

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Response to mainer (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 04:34 PM

16. "Tho some argue that risings #s can be attributed to increased testing". What BS!

Increased counts attributable to increased testing just means they were undercounting all along. Three cheers for accuracy.

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