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Fri Oct 16, 2020, 11:02 PM

538 podcast tonight about standing of their forecast - interesting listen

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-does-early-voting-affect-the-forecast-and-other-listener-questions/

nearly 45 minutes, but an interesting listen about Dem chances of winning presidency, senate and house.

7 replies, 753 views

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Reply 538 podcast tonight about standing of their forecast - interesting listen (Original post)
NRaleighLiberal Oct 16 OP
mucifer Oct 16 #1
NRaleighLiberal Oct 16 #2
Thekaspervote Oct 16 #3
NRaleighLiberal Oct 16 #4
Awsi Dooger Oct 17 #5
Fiendish Thingy Oct 17 #6
GulfCoast66 Oct 17 #7

Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 11:17 PM

1. what did they say?

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Response to mucifer (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 11:23 PM

2. just tons of stuff, really wonky - pretty much all good news for Biden, but they are

poll aggregators and stress that trump does have a finite chance. Lots of caveats. They are also still pretty defensive about criticism of how they did in 2016.

Just far too much to easily summarize - still listening to it!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 11:35 PM

3. 538 was far from the only one that made a miscalculation about 16

The way I see it, they say they have corrected, or more heavily weighted the WWCM voter this time around. So, Iím fine with that and trust what they are saying. Besides, if they get this one wrong, their livelihoods may be on the line!

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 11:46 PM

4. agreed. I think listening to wonky poll and election data discussions helps alleviate anxiety..

at least for me!

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:20 AM

5. How can 538 be wrong?

They are a compiler, not a pollster. Every poll has Biden ahead. They are merely assigning likelihood of victory based on the polls they inherit, and in some cases slightly adjust.

If Biden is leading by 8 or 10 points in every national poll and he loses the electoral college/and or popular vote, that is polling error not 538 error.

Errors are made when the percentage is nonsensical to the polling, like if someone claimed this is a 50/50 race right now, or in 2016 when Sam Wang and others tried to pretend Hillary was 99% certain

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:31 AM

6. 538 wasn't wrong- they projected HRC would win popular vote by 2-3% and she did

The narrow margin Trump won in the Rust Belt was within the MOE, except for WI, IIRC.

They gave HRC 66/33 odds, so Trump had a 1 in 3 chance of winning, unlike now, when he has 13%, or 1 in 8 odds.

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 01:20 AM

7. Thank you.

The polls were not wrong in 16. People did not understand what the polls actually are.

The state polls are all that matter.

Actually the votes are all that matter.

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